When will the price of gas send the US into a full recession

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Cail
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Post by Cail »

The weak dollar is certainly a factor, but spending more of the government's money isn't going to help that. Besides, the price of fuel is high everywhere, not just in the US.

Adjusted for inflation, the previous high for gas was in 1981 ($3.15/gallon). 27 years later we're at $3.50/gallon. Sorry, I just can't get too worked up about that.
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Post by SoulBiter »

Spending more of the govts money? I was talking about spending less not more. The price of fuel is high everywhere and going up everywhere because its considered a global commodity. As more investors invest in oil rather than the weak dollar, the price of crude goes up.

Im glad that you cant get too worked up about 3.50 a gallon gas.... perhaps when as it continues to rise and the economy collapes and you become one of the working poor, you will get worked up more.

Im also bored to tears of hearing about what gas was in 1981 adjusted for inflation. Thats a strawman.. it means nothing. Who the $%^& cares what it was then? It hurt then and it hurts now. Thats like saying I cant get too worked up about 50% taxes because the 60's the upper tax was around 90% and the 70's it was around 70%.
Or I cant get too worked up about losing my left hand because I lost my right arm 5 years ago.

NOTE added: Im going to apologize in advance for being a bit curt on this. But there is nothing I hate more than the answer... "So what? Get over it." And thats what Im hearing in not so many words.
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Post by Cail »

The conversation has been about the government spending more on mass transit and alternative fuels, or or worse, doing "something" about high energy prices. Pardon me if I'm mis-attributing that to you.

Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on point of view), the US economy doesn't revolve around me. As I said upthread, I'm currently spending nearly $400 a month on gas, and thanks to the housing market collapse have taken nearly a 50% cut in pay. Please don't presume to lecture me about the working poor or the need for personal restraint. I live in a crappy neighborhood one mile from work in order to cut back on my fuel costs (and I still drive nearly 3000 miles a month). It's my choice. I am free to find another job at any point.

The adjusted cost of gas isn't a strawman. It's a simple fact. The actual price of gas has increased by $.35/gallon in the last 27 years. By any measure you like, that's damn near negligible.

You can get worked up about gas prices all you like, but ultimately you should be pissed that its been as cheap as it has for the last three decades. Shortsighted planning has left our infrastructure a mess, and irresponsible consumer choice has given us a vehicle pool overloaded with inefficient behemoths. Gas prices are higher everywhere else in the world, and nowhere else in the world will you find large trucks and SUVs used as personal use vehicles.
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Post by sgt.null »

except i have never owned on of those monsters. and i have never set the prices for gas, now or then. so as usual the government screws up and the cost is dumped on me and people like me.
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Post by Cail »

Again, you're still (at $3.50/gallon) paying lower gas prices than the vast majority of the world. Gas is a finite resource, and it's not the government's job to tell you how to use it (or subsidize your use).

Now, I will say that it has been very short-sighted keeping our economy tied to foreign oil, but the American environmental movement has done everything in it's power to prevent the US from becoming energy independent.

And whether or not you set prices or made policy is immaterial. I work for a living and pay taxes, yet my money goes towards all sorts of social programs and bailouts that I vehemently disagree with. Welcome to citizenship.
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Post by kevinswatch »

Cail wrote:Now, I will say that it has been very short-sighted keeping our economy tied to foreign oil, but the American environmental movement has done everything in it's power to prevent the US from becoming energy independent.
Um, I'm not sure what you mean by that, or are referring to. (Unless you mentioned specifically earlier, or in another topic, which case just let me know and I apologize.)

But except for nuclear, I don't think the environmental movement has "done everything in it's power to prevent the US from becoming energy independent." Seems to be a bit of an exaggeration. Because in general, I think the goals of both the environmental movement and the energy independent movement are similar.

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Post by sgt.null »

so the the price of gas is cheaper in the us, so what of it? we have cleaner water as well. should we lower our standards to fit in?

or should we come up with more of a solution than just shrugging our shoulders.

why should we allow the oil companies their record high profits. we cap other prices.
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Post by Cail »

kevinswatch wrote:
Cail wrote:Now, I will say that it has been very short-sighted keeping our economy tied to foreign oil, but the American environmental movement has done everything in it's power to prevent the US from becoming energy independent.
Um, I'm not sure what you mean by that, or are referring to. (Unless you mentioned specifically earlier, or in another topic, which case just let me know and I apologize.)

But except for nuclear, I don't think the environmental movement has "done everything in it's power to prevent the US from becoming energy independent." Seems to be a bit of an exaggeration. Because in general, I think the goals of both the environmental movement and the energy independent movement are similar.
No new oil refineries built since 1976. Dam construction halted due to environmental impact. Major wind farm projects halted due to the danger to flocks of birds (off Martha's Vineyard, championed by John Kerry).

Null, what does clean water have to do with cheap gas? What other prices have we capped without a resulting backlash.
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"I believe there are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations." - James Madison
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Post by dlbpharmd »

Didn't Nixon cap gas prices in the early 70s?
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Post by Cail »

Yeah, and I seem to recall that being an absolute disaster. I still remember waiting in lines with my dad.

Learned a lot of primo curse words in the process.
"There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences." - PJ O'Rourke
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"Men and women range themselves into three classes or orders of intelligence; you can tell the lowest class by their habit of always talking about persons; the next by the fact that their habit is always to converse about things; the highest by their preference for the discussion of ideas." - Charles Stewart
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"I believe there are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations." - James Madison
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Post by storm »

Rawedge Rim wrote:
storm wrote:Cail...the increase in gas price is fine if you are working at a job that makes enough income so its not an issue. But how about those of us that are college students. Those of us in health care get bent over when it comes to our clinical sites, i drive 180 miles a week just in my clinical commute. Its another 50 miles for my drive back and forth to campus. Its not like i can choose where my clinicals are. I'm sure there are people who drive that much or more a week for their jobs. How much excess driving do you think is occurring?
Not sure what the price of a good has to do with what you make, and I know for a fact that the "Law of Supply and Demand" really doesn't care. As long as demand outstrips supply, the price will continue to rise. It doens't care whether you are a college student, or some "joe" out there flipping burgers. It becomes part of your budget.
If gas is supposed to be 5.00 a gallon, how do you feel about minimum wage being what its supposed to be. Take a look at the cost of living in 1970 and the relationship to the minimum wage and that ratio now. If minimum wage was growing at the same rate as the cost of living, minimum wage would be double what it currently is.
How high should the minimum wage be? And how far should the next tier of wages be raised to keep pace? And at what point does industry and such decide to pass this on to consumers? (Like they are doing now due to increased fuel and energy costs)

Then there is the issue of being more green. Energy efficient appliances still cost more, just like organic food costs more. Costs are increasing, wages are staying the same (the minimum wage hike didn't do much), the value of the dollar is going down. If gas continues to escalate, these costs will rise further. There is a great deal of reappraisal that people will need to do before some of these changes that you are making are feasible for those in lower tax brackets.
I know for a fact, in my own case, that I make entirely too many short trips that could be combined. How often have one of you stood up and said something to the effect of "Dang, I don't have any milk. I'll just jump into the automobile and go to the grocery store that is only one mile away." and that's all you get there? There are a number of things that can be done in the short term to make the pain a bit easier.
[/quote]

1. The price of a good has a lot to do with what you make, . Although i'm not exactly sure why you made that point with the part of my post you quoted. Cail said that gas prices should be 5$, i disagree, at 5$ my only expenses will be food and gas because i can't afford to buy anything else. This doesn't help the economy.

2. I couldn't tell you what people should make, but i know that what people make in relation to their purchasing power is significantly skewed compared to how it was 30-40 years ago. That means someone is making more "profit" than they were in past generations and that someone is not the working class.

3. There are certainly situations where all of us could probably curb our driving. If the grocery store is a mile away, getting on a bike or walking there for a gallon of milk is not an outrageous expectation. But how much unnecessary driving is really happening. Most people work 40 hours a week, at least 75% of their driving time is expected to be the daily commute. The other 25% is likely groceries, kids sports, trips, etc. If you don't make enough money to afford your daily commute and have to quit your job, go on welfare, etc...this doesn't decrease spending. To make it worse, this sort of situation is what makes the poor and the lower middle class vote for someone with more socialist policies than conservative policiies on account that they see shell pull in record profits and they can't afford to drive to work.

Reforms need to take all these factors into account. The economy is not the jungle, if the lions (big business) run loose unchecked, the zebras (middle america) will vote in someone who will put the lions in check, i doubt any of us want that. Socialism is not the answer, but raping the hell out of the little guy isn't either.
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Post by Cail »

So what would you suggest that will alleviate the pain now and prevent it from happening again?
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"I believe there are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations." - James Madison
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Post by dlbpharmd »

Cail wrote:Yeah, and I seem to recall that being an absolute disaster. I still remember waiting in lines with my dad.

Learned a lot of primo curse words in the process.
Time well spent, eh? ;)
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Post by storm »

Cail wrote:So what would you suggest that will alleviate the pain now and prevent it from happening again?
I'm honestly not sure to be honest. But a large part of this country makes under 30k a year, with food and gas going up so much, how can we actually stimulate the economy and prevent a depression. My fear is that people who are on the fence this election will see someone like Obama or Clinton as that person who will keep food on their table. People in that bottom third are bitter, they see corporate bail-outs for Bear Stearns, talk about bail-outs for people who bought 300k houses on a 50k a year salary, but no one is helping them feed and cloth their family. The problem with the economy is that its structured as survival for the fittest, but the unfit are still human beings. I'm not willing to step over someone starving in the streets, but it seems like too many of us are because of our wallets. When that's how things are handled, those of us that want smaller govt. will be outvoted by those who want bigger govt. because they see it as the only way they can survive. Not a pretty picture.
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Post by Kil Tyme »

Bah, not worried.

www.rinf.com/columnists/news/the-us-gov ... -discovery

Well, perhaps a little worried since the article is 2 years old...! But I have seen this massive oil field find reported elsewhere, too and quite recently. Oil fields or not, the big thing we also really need are refinerys.
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Post by Cail »

I'll be dipped.
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Post by iQuestor »

I wonder if it is true.
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Post by Cail »

It's all over the internet, and I've heard about it before. It's oil shale, which costs more to refine, but it's still a really big find.
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"I believe there are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations." - James Madison
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Post by Vain »

There's always oil from sand in Canada - it's refined on site as well

www.energy.gov.ab.ca/OilSands/oilsands.asp
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Post by kevinswatch »

Cail wrote:No new oil refineries built since 1976. Dam construction halted due to environmental impact. Major wind farm projects halted due to the danger to flocks of birds (off Martha's Vineyard, championed by John Kerry).
Ah, I forgot about hydro. Heh, well, dams are horrible and deserve to be prevented.

There may be some isolated events, but I was of the understanding that wind power was still popular, even among environmentalists.

And don't forget bioenergy... That's a huge, renewable, upcoming, made-in-the-USA industry.

My main point, though, is that I still don't think it's fair to say that the environmental movement means preventing energy independence. (And I still don't see enough evidence to make it anything more than a huge exaggeration.) Environmentalists aren't stupid, they know that we need energy, and they would love for us to be free from middle east oil. The environmental movement though is all about doing that, achieving energy independence, without screwing up the damn planet.

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