What if the Sun were to go Nova

[SerScot]

In 2000 years and we knew with certainty this event was going to happen (It is the plot of the Arthur C. Clark novel The Songs of Distant Earth). What should we do? What would haveing a definative date of execution for the home of the Human Species do to our civilization. Two Millenia is quite a while away roughly 100 generations in our future. None of us would live to see it. And we would be so distant from our ancenstors to be unlikely to be remembered.

Would we immediately begin pushing serious money into advanced space exploration efforts? Would we build seed ships? Would we ignore it and continue on as we are but with a tad more fatalism? What would this do to our politicial structure globally?

discuss.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

It wouldn't make one damned bit of difference to anyone or anything. We already live under the more likely threats of some sort of global pandemic or a planet-killer meteor and yet we still continue in our short-sighted and self-centric lives.

The only thing that will change the nature of the planet is for an extraterrestrial species to land here and hold public meetings, making it clear that we are not the only intelligent species in the galaxy.

I don't see that happening any time in the near future, either.

[Vraith]

Heh...I might have something to say later.
But for now...
Did you ever read a Vonnegut short story...the big space fuck or the great space fuck or somesuch? It's kinda funny, and touches on your scenario a bit.

[Zarathustra]

2000 years is a lot of time to play with. You can't measure our future progress by looking backwards 2000 years ago. Our technological progess is accelerating. We won't even recognize ourselves in 2000 years. Maybe not even in 500 years. (We already know our genetic code! How long do you think it will take to become masters of this code?)

In 2000 years we'll likely have populations not only on the planets of our solar system, but also on planets in different star systems. There will be no need to do anything different immediately. Our natural progress will do the trick. If we can survive the next 100 years or so, we'll achieve a Type 1 civilization. After that, it will only take 1,500-2,500 years time to reach Type 2, depending on whether our growth rate is 1% or 2% (it has been closer to 1% over the last several centuries).

Nothing known to science can destroy a Type 2 civilization. At this point, even if it's not feasible to flee, we would most likely be able to stop our sun from going nova. It's just a nuclear reaction, just physics.

[SerScot]

Zara,

Would you put your bets on stoping the Nova. Wouldn't it make more sense to spread wide and work on attempting to stop the Nova?

[Zarathustra]

Actually, I'm placing my bets on Michio Kaku being right, since I'm basically just paraphrasing him. But since he's a theoretical physicist, I tend to think his foresight in these matters is worth heeding.

We know how the sun works. We know what causes stars to go nova. That's an amazing accomplishment for people who thought stars were little holes in some celestial sphere 2000 years ago. I can't believe we know what's going on inside a star on the atomic level. That just blows my mind. I guess I'm also placing my bets on humanity in general. We've already shown that we have what it takes to discover the secrets of our existence, the practical knowledge that will make us masters of matter, life, and intelligence (the quantum revolution, the bio-molecular revolution, and the computer revolution). These three fields are merging and feeding into each other, and this merging will be the process by which we become masters of our reality.

[Rawedge Rim]

In 2000 years we'll likely have populations not only on the planets of our solar system, but also on planets in different star systems.

Not unless we find a way to bypass E=MC2, or we don't mind using some form of suspended animation, or generational ships.

We are located on the outside edge of the galaxy, where the stars are a long way from each other.

[Zarathustra]

Well, there are theoretical possibilities for getting around the the speed of light, and we might be able to turn those possibilities into practical uses. But even if we don't, there are earth-like planets within our reach. Sure, it might take a while to get there, but we only have to leave in 2000 years in this thought experiment, not arrive in 2000 years.

Have you guys been keeping up with the Kepler telescope project? It has recently stopped working, but until then, it found more planets than most people ever dreamed would be out there. We're still analyzing the data.

As of 4 November 2013, the Kepler mission space telescope has detected 3,568[7][8] more candidate planets,[9][10] of which about 11% may be false positives.[11] There are at least 100 billion planets in the Milky Way, with at least one planet on average per star.[1][2][3][12] There are also possibly trillions of rogue planets, which are not bound to any star, in the Milky Way.[13] Around 1 in 5 Sun-like[a] stars have an "Earth-sized" planet in the habitable[c] zone, so the nearest would be expected to be within 12 light-years distance from Earth.[14][15] As a result of related studies, astronomers have reported that there could be as many as 40 billion Earth-sized planets orbiting in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars and red dwarfs within the Milky Way.[15][16] 11 billion of these estimated planets may be orbiting Sun-like stars.[17] The nearest known exoplanet, if confirmed, would be Alpha Centauri Bb, but there is some doubt about its existence.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exoplanet#Earth-like_planets

I can't believe I'm living in a time when we know of 1000s of exoplanets. I can remember (as many of you can, I'm sure) when we hadn't discovered a single one. It wasn't that long ago ... in the 90s.

[SoulBiter]

Rules are made to be broken. Its incredible to me that things that were considered Science Fiction just 50 years ago are now in use in our daily lives. I cant predict 500 years into the future but at we are really just one discovery of a new way of thinking and then to the stars. Using todays knowledge, yes, we cant get there without generational ships or suspended animation. But thats todays knowledge. Imagine as they continue to develop matter to energy physical transference technology (Transporters) which is being worked today. Imagine what that technology could look like in 100 or 200 years? That by itself might solve this issue, even if they had to send a robotic ship that would become the receiver/re-imager for the energy collector. BAM.... we moved off the planet!

[Hashi Lebwohl]

We don't even have a permanent science station on the Moon yet; that will be the first step. The launches to get the materials to a Moon station will be used to manufacture ships to launch from the Moon, which will require significantly less fuel to escape its gravity, presuming we don't build them outside the planetary gravity well.
At some point, the first human will be born at the station and this will mark the second step--the first non-planetary human. By this time our knowledge of cybernetics will be improved enough that living in a state of reduced gravity won't be too much of a problem because our attached exoskeletons can be set to give resistance to muscle tissue to maintain its tone.
The third step will be establishing a colony on Mars--this is probably 200 years away and will finally be the point at which we could reasonably begin to outlive the Sun as a species.

Yes, our rate of technological advancement is still pretty steep but I think the rate of advancement has slowed. 1900 looked nothing like 1800, 1930 looked considerably different than 1900, 1960 looked a little different than 1930 did, but except for clothing and automotive styles 1990 didn't look significantly different from 1960. I will admit that 2010 looked different than 1990 did but only because of the prevalence of computers in homes and mobile devices being used by people. If you look out your window right now, note that 2030 will probably look just like that except the mobile devices have become more mobile, possibly even implanted.

The only way I can see that our species has any real chance of making it off-planet and remaining viable as a species is to convert ourselves into cyborgs. Anti-agathic protein therapies which let us live to 150 years still won't be enough. No, we will need the ability to link our brains with computers to upload/download information--upload your memories, let your aged physical body die, get a clone grown of you, connect its cybernetic components, then download your memories back into a new body. It is "you" without being "you"--there might be some personality differences, presuming our skill with cloning isn't sufficient to create a brain which was wired just like your previous one, but your memories and point of view will remain intact. At this point your lifespan could extend into centuries and that is enough time to make it to a planet several light-years away for colonization.

Disclaimer: lately I have been thinking a lot about the idea of being able to upload/download our knowledge and memories, essentially treating our brain as if it were an external drive. The idea is fascinating to me.

[Rawedge Rim]

We don't even have a permanent science station on the Moon yet; that will be the first step. The launches to get the materials to a Moon station will be used to manufacture ships to launch from the Moon, which will require significantly less fuel to escape its gravity, presuming we don't build them outside the planetary gravity well.
At some point, the first human will be born at the station and this will mark the second step--the first non-planetary human. By this time our knowledge of cybernetics will be improved enough that living in a state of reduced gravity won't be too much of a problem because our attached exoskeletons can be set to give resistance to muscle tissue to maintain its tone.
The third step will be establishing a colony on Mars--this is probably 200 years away and will finally be the point at which we could reasonably begin to outlive the Sun as a species.

Yes, our rate of technological advancement is still pretty steep but I think the rate of advancement has slowed. 1900 looked nothing like 1800, 1930 looked considerably different than 1900, 1960 looked a little different than 1930 did, but except for clothing and automotive styles 1990 didn't look significantly different from 1960. I will admit that 2010 looked different than 1990 did but only because of the prevalence of computers in homes and mobile devices being used by people. If you look out your window right now, note that 2030 will probably look just like that except the mobile devices have become more mobile, possibly even implanted.

The only way I can see that our species has any real chance of making it off-planet and remaining viable as a species is to convert ourselves into cyborgs. Anti-agathic protein therapies which let us live to 150 years still won't be enough. No, we will need the ability to link our brains with computers to upload/download information--upload your memories, let your aged physical body die, get a clone grown of you, connect its cybernetic components, then download your memories back into a new body. It is "you" without being "you"--there might be some personality differences, presuming our skill with cloning isn't sufficient to create a brain which was wired just like your previous one, but your memories and point of view will remain intact. At this point your lifespan could extend into centuries and that is enough time to make it to a planet several light-years away for colonization.

Disclaimer: lately I have been thinking a lot about the idea of being able to upload/download our knowledge and memories, essentially treating our brain as if it were an external drive. The idea is fascinating to me.

Keep in mind, that in addition to the technological issues involved with space inhabitation, it's been found that micro-gravity is really not good for creatures designed to operate in a full gravity enviroment.

However, I'm with Soulbiter, I don't know if there is a limit to how far, scientifically we can go, and as he alluded to, I doubt that a bedouin from 1st century Judeah would comprehend the world that exists today, and someone from now would look even worse 2000 years from now. (assuming we don't run out of energy first, or find some way to take ourselves out of the game)

[Avatar]

...I think the rate of advancement has slowed.

Currently, it has definitely slowed. But the advent of genius or breakthrough cannot be predicted. Right now, we're in a holding pattern...refining the last real break-through's over and over.

(I saw a wonderful piece pointing out that the newest iSomething's great innovation was that it was 1.7mm thinner than the last one. )

Until the next ground-breaker, we're not going to see anywhere near as steep a rise. But the ground-breaking discoveries may be slowly occurring closer to each other.

--A

[SerScot]

Avatar, Hashi,

Back at the turn of the 19th to the 20th century there was a move to close the patent office in the US because "everything that could be invented had been invented". That made me wonder. Was this because the standards for new patents were stricter at the time or because of shear shortsightedness?

[deer of the dawn]

If there were a known expiration date for the earth and therefore a known need to find elsewhere to live, I think we as a race would fart around until about T-125 years, and then finding, buying, speculating and investing in extraterrestrial living situations would become a global obsession.

So the earth blows up, and humanity finds itself living in an array of space stations and half-habitable planetary colonies. But since they are all middle-aged and older super-rich and their lap dogs, and they forgot to bring along a slave race to clean up the latrine malfunctions, life is short and brutish.

Of course, if we could live another 2000 years on this planet with all the potential for self-destruction we have at our disposal, maybe we'd do better than that at surviving. But to quote the Architect (from the Matrix), "There are levels of survival we are prepared to accept." Like that.

[Vraith]

...I think the rate of advancement has slowed.

Currently, it has definitely slowed. But the advent of genius or breakthrough cannot be predicted. Right now, we're in a holding pattern...refining the last real break-through's over and over.

(I saw a wonderful piece pointing out that the newest iSomething's great innovation was that it was 1.7mm thinner than the last one. )

Until the next ground-breaker, we're not going to see anywhere near as steep a rise. But the ground-breaking discoveries may be slowly occurring closer to each other.

--A

I don't think there's been any slowing...yes, we're in a refinement stage, not a revolution one in SOME fields...
But in others, things are exploding...materials sciences, for example.

On the topic, though...if we got "notice" today, your first, largest, most significant problem would be convincing all the folk...some of whom have lots of guns and bombs...who don't EVER believe ANY science that anything was going to happen.
And that could get very ugly.


Then [probably at the same time as the above] the most likely is full-on resource wars. Might be "polite" political/economic/espionage pressures at FIRST...but then tech-nations fighting over resources in third-party places, then they MIGHT fight each other directly, but I think they'll do something more along the lines Deer suggested.

[SerScot]

When will we have the next big technological change that affects everyones everyday life?

[aTOMiC]

Acceleration vs energy consumption and creating a safe, protected environment for spaceship passengers are the two greatest hurdles that must be overcome before interstellar travel is possible. If technology over the next 500 years or so develops to the level that even .25 of light speed is achievable then a trip to the nearest star is possible within the length of a typical human lifespan which might reach as much as 150 years by then. Rigel Kentaurus is around 4 light years distant and if any of the three stars that comprise it have habitable planets orbiting them then an escape plan is at least a remote possibility within the 2000 year parameter. IMHO.

[Vraith]

When will we have the next big technological change that affects everyones everyday life?

10 years or less.
I don't know exactly what/which it will be...
But the most likely fields are:
"Cyborg"-related fields.
In some ways overlapping that: cancer/disease nano-tech.
[That will begin within 10, might take a bit longer for full implementation, but I see no reason why within 25, if people wanted to put the money and effort into it, antibiotics/anti-virals...pretty much every sickness-fighting drug...were unnecessary. Clogged arteries as easy and cheap to treat/prevent as a clogged drain in your sink.]

Energy [I'm expecting giant leaps forward in both solar and fusion. On the solar part, I'm expecting those leaps in two different ways: the collection methods, AND in storage...the storage part will also affect many life-areas independent of its connection with solar].

Related to energy: Again, maybe a longer time frame to build up capacity, but within 10 we'll be on our way off fossil fuels in a two-pronged way: won't need to drill/dig for them, cuz we can make them cheaply and easily, and other fuels will be available. [also, the solar/storage/fusion above will remove a significant part of the demand for them.]

Probably others...I'm nearly certain that at least one thing that no one is even imagining right now will happen within 10. I suspect within 5.

This is all kinda off-topic, I know. But one more thing anyway. I THINK that there's a common view of the paradigm shift even among some...but not all...tech/science folk that they are chaotic or semi-chaotic events [which they are, in one particular way...but not in the ordinary usage way]
The weight of all the refinements and specialization and details smothers innovation and stifles alternative views and rigidifies thought until some Genius-Rebel-Madman shatters everything and overthrows existing frame.
I see it slightly differently...I think the weight/refinement/knowledge dam CAUSES the shift. All that stuff CREATES the G-R-M.

[[Some of the stuff Kaku has said, Z, is the reason I think that way...I really enjoy his brain and the way he plays. You know he has a new book coming out in Feb? About the mind and where it/we are going. Supposedly a book tour too, a friend told me. I haven't checked his web page yet for cities/dates.]]

[Hashi Lebwohl]

Energy [I'm expecting giant leaps forward in both solar and fusion. On the solar part, I'm expecting those leaps in two different ways: the collection methods, AND in storage...the storage part will also affect many life-areas independent of its connection with solar].

Remember the SkunkWorks thread in the Loresraat? They are going for a 100MW prototype fusion reactor by 2017, commercial production by 2020, and they expect to meet the entire planet's energy needs by 2045.

Inexpensive electricity for everyone, even in developing nations? Putting the oil/gas industry out of business? That would definitely change people's lives....but Big Oil will never let it happen.

[SerScot]

I've heard nanotech is the next big step. Here's hoping we avoid the "Grey Goo".