Covid-19

Archive From The 'Tank
User avatar
TheFallen
Master of Innominate Surquedry
Posts: 3153
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2011 3:16 pm
Location: Guildford, UK
Has thanked: 1 time

Post by TheFallen »

The desire for dynasties is hardly unusual in US politics. The Kennedys, the Bushes, the Clintons...

It remains to be seen. But the Pubs would have to be even stupider than the Dems have been, if they go for a Trump mk II in the future.

Once Trump manages to lose this election against piss-poor opposition, I'd expect a return to something approaching normalcy in the future - on the Pub side at least. Defeat should be an educational experience.
Newsflash: the word "irony" doesn't mean "a bit like iron" :roll:

Shockingly, some people have claimed that I'm egocentric... but hey, enough about them

"If you strike me down, I shall become far stronger than you can possibly imagine."
_______________________________________________
I occasionally post things here because I am invariably correct on all matters, a thing which is educational for others less fortunate.
User avatar
Fist and Faith
Magister Vitae
Posts: 23439
Joined: Sun Dec 01, 2002 8:14 pm
Has thanked: 6 times
Been thanked: 30 times

Post by Fist and Faith »

My money is still on Trump. I may not think his supporters will vote for him if he decapitates someone, or rapes their daughters (ffs), but I've never heard anyone I actuality know, in rl or online, say he has gone too far, or they no longer agree worth his policies. The more people speak out against him, the louder his supporters get.
All lies and jest
Still a man hears what he wants to hear
And disregards the rest
-Paul Simon
User avatar
Gaius Octavius
The Gap Into Spam
Posts: 3331
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:32 pm

Post by Gaius Octavius »

User avatar
Gaius Octavius
The Gap Into Spam
Posts: 3331
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:32 pm

Post by Gaius Octavius »

Fist and Faith wrote:My money is still on Trump. I may not think his supporters will vote for him if he decapitates someone, or rapes their daughters (ffs), but I've never heard anyone I actuality know, in rl or online, say he has gone too far, or they no longer agree worth his policies. The more people speak out against him, the louder his supporters get.
Not so sure about that last part. It just doesn't make sense. The more people speak out against Trump, the less people there are to be in favor of Trump.

I browse a lot of Trumpist social media, and frankly, the enthusiasm is less than it was in 2016. Trumpist political commentary channels used to have titles saying "Democrats do X, Trump wins in LANDSLIDE in 2020!" but now the videos are more about airing grievances about the other side like "They are mistreating our president!" There's a sharp contrast. When they are confident, it is all about them beating the "stupid" Democrats. Now, it's just about airing grievances. The lack of confidence they had just months ago is palpable.

On /pol/ (4chan), they are also less enthusiastic as well. These were the kind of people that got Trump into the White House in 2016. The fact that they have more threads mocking Trump now rather than getting hyped about him says a lot.

I don't think Trump merely offset the loss of alt-right supporters. There has been solid evidence of Biden eating away at Trump's base for the past few months or so.

Just today, RCP and FiveThirtyEight have Biden at a +9.5 lead. It's almost +10! He was just +6-7 about a month ago! Hillary never had these numbers, and Trump only won those battleground states in 2016 by razor-thin margins.

When people say that Biden's lead in battleground states is comparable to Hillary's, that is misleading. The 2016 election had strong third-party and a lot of undecided voters, which isn't the case for 2020. A lot of Johnson voters broke last minute to go vote for Trump. I believe Johnson was about 7% in the national polling, but ended up with about 3%. Those voters went somewhere, and they went to Trump.

If you add Johnson's numbers to Trump's in the battleground states that Trump won last year, you can see that Trump was actually ahead of Clinton by about a point (or just trailing her by a point). Well within the margin of error.

The 2016 election was about an establishment Democrat who was very unpopular and a populist outsider. People were willing to take a risk by voting for the populist, so Trump won.

The 2020 election is about Trump's performance as president, which has not been great. Look at the data, and you can see that most people feel the same way that I do about him.

If 2016 was about electing Trump, 2020 is about voting him out. That is the national zeitgeist.
User avatar
Gaius Octavius
The Gap Into Spam
Posts: 3331
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:32 pm

Post by Gaius Octavius »

Before anyone says anything about hidden Trump voters, let me stop you right there. There's been zero evidence that this is actually a significant phenomenon.

If there are hidden Trump voters in certain areas because they are afraid to publicly show support for Trump, then it logically follows that there are "hidden Biden voters" as well.

And where would these hidden Trump voters be? Surely not red states. Maybe they would be in the very blue states like CA and NY, but in the purple states? Maybe, but I believe that even in those kind of places Trumpists have enough confidence to be very public about their support.

There's also the inconvenient fact that red states are turning purple this year. These red states are places like GA, TX, and AZ. This shows one of three things, 1) lack of enthusiasm for Trump among Republican voters, 2) people are breaking ranks to go vote for the opposition, or 3) the Democrat voters are heavily energized.
User avatar
Hashi Lebwohl
The Gap Into Spam
Posts: 19576
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 7:38 pm

Post by Hashi Lebwohl »

ur-Nanothnir wrote:I knew two months ago that it was exceedingly unlikely that the GOP would ever allow stimulus talks to move forward, so I had to sell several of my possessions in order to come up with the amount that was promised in a second stimulus check, on my own.
Ah so--now we know why you switched camps all of a sudden.
ur-Nanothnir wrote:On /pol/ (4chan)
Incidentally, this is another thing causing you to have become more extreme as of late. I would advise you to quit going there....but I can't really tell you what to do.
The Tank is gone and now so am I.
User avatar
Gaius Octavius
The Gap Into Spam
Posts: 3331
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:32 pm

Post by Gaius Octavius »

No, the stimulus talks didn't sway me to vote Biden on their own. They were one of the few straws that broke the camel's back, so to speak.

I'm not necessarily angry over having to sell things. They were just inanimate objects, and I don't believe you should be too attached to those kind of things.

However, it does make me angry because ordinary Americans need another stimulus check, especially those below 40k/year in income, which includes myself.

The GOP has shown a complete inability to respond to the needs of Americans. Remember, they were the ones who said that Americans needed another stimulus check. Then they completely failed to deliver.

It's really about having an administration that is responsible vs one that is not. I will choose those who will be responsible and do the right thing.

As for 4chan, I don't participate there. The website is a cesspool. However, I do visit it from time to time in order to gauge the general mood of people there. Same with thedonald.win and r/conservative. You can tell a lot about the "other side" by seeing what kind of discussions they are having within a relatively closed environment. You can see what they are thinking.
User avatar
Hashi Lebwohl
The Gap Into Spam
Posts: 19576
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 7:38 pm

Post by Hashi Lebwohl »

ur-Nanothnir wrote:However, it does make me angry because ordinary Americans need another stimulus check, especially those below 40k/year in income, which includes myself.
1) We would not have needed any stimulus whatsoever if we had not shut down the economy in a fit of panic over a virus which was not as deadly as people were screeching that it was going to be. 2,000,000 dead? Only in a Hollywood movie.

2) You make below $40k and yet you recently bought, what was it, a Rolex? There is a disconnect here somewhere and/or a situation which can be spun in various directions, but let's not get sidetracked down that rabbit hole at this time.

ur-Nanothnir wrote:As for 4chan, I don't participate there. The website is a cesspool. However, I do visit it from time to time in order to gauge the general mood of people there. Same with thedonald.win and r/conservative. You can tell a lot about the "other side" by seeing what kind of discussions they are having within a relatively closed environment. You can see what they are thinking.
Well, yes--4chan has long prided itself on being, literally, the asshole of the Internet. If you are going there--or to those other sites-- to try and gauge the "feel" of what conservatives are thinking...well, you are going to the wrong sites--actual conservatives do not visit those sites. Hell, most of them don't even know they exist. If you really want to gauge what most actual conservatives are thinking then Facebook is place to go. On the sites you mention all you are going to find are alt-right trolls who do not represent the actual conservative movement.
The Tank is gone and now so am I.
User avatar
Gaius Octavius
The Gap Into Spam
Posts: 3331
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:32 pm

Post by Gaius Octavius »

The Trump administration has fallen into disarray after several more people test positive for COVID-19. These people include top generals, Stephen Miller, and White House staff. People working for the White House are apparently to show up to work due to the risk of infection.


https://newrepublic.com/article/159652/ ... hen-miller

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54441986
User avatar
Avatar
Immanentizing The Eschaton
Posts: 61651
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:17 am
Location: Johannesburg, South Africa
Has thanked: 13 times
Been thanked: 19 times

Post by Avatar »

Some good points about the mood / attitude of supporters Nano, and while I agree with Hashi that sites like that are not something that is relevant to the attitudes of "mainstream" conservatives, I also agree that the current state of play (on both sides) is not with the mainstream.

I also suspect it's the mainstream that Fist is referring to when he says he doesn't see it changing, but right now, the margins are where the difference will (again perhaps?) lie.

That said, I see that they are expecting a record turnout this year. Based on early / absentee ballot requests and already submitted votes, they think this might be the highest turnout in more than 100 years.

And that is going to throw a big curve-ball into this I think...historically your turn-out has been pretty low...may play havoc with predictions and polls.

--A
User avatar
peter
The Gap Into Spam
Posts: 11488
Joined: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:08 am
Location: Another time. Another place.
Been thanked: 4 times

Post by peter »

News out today that figures show that in upwards of twenty five percent of Covid cases in hospitals, the virus has been contracted afer the patient has been admitted for another unconnected purpose. This is of course not unusual - the norovirus that sweeps through the population every year in the UK is circulated within the hospital system on a virtually ongoing basis with wards almost always being closed for 'deep cleaning' (another subject all together since the ruinous outsourcing of cleaning services to the private sector, but let that rest) somewhere in every hospital. But in this case the hospital figures are being used alongside infection rates to bolster the government argument for the necessity of the local restrictions and lockdowns and so the knowledge is pertinent.

Elsewhere, I saw a letter to a newspaper that pointed out that alongside the PM's manifold failures in relation to Covid he could not even get his terminology correct. He, the letter said, was using the term 'circuit break' (although in fairness I think Johnson picked this up from the science bods around him) when he should have in fact been using the expression 'fire break'. The latter refers to a break in which the offending parameter is stopped in it's tracks in order to stop it, while the former is used as a break after which, when turned off, the situation continues as it had prior to its switching on!. Freudian slip?
The truth is a Lion and does not need protection. Once free it will look after itself.

....and the glory of the world becomes less than it was....
'Have we not served you well'
'Of course - you know you have.'
'Then let it end.'

We are the Bloodguard
User avatar
Hashi Lebwohl
The Gap Into Spam
Posts: 19576
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 7:38 pm

Post by Hashi Lebwohl »

Go read the Big Pharma thread--we note that most of the physicians on the FDA's Advisory Board are also usually paid consultants for Big Pharmaceutical companies.

As far as the Administration being thrown into disarray....I doubt that. Corona simply is not that deadly to most of them with the notable exception of Trump, himself, who has two high-risk factors: age and poor diet.
The Tank is gone and now so am I.
User avatar
Gaius Octavius
The Gap Into Spam
Posts: 3331
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:32 pm

Post by Gaius Octavius »

~wrong thread~
Last edited by Gaius Octavius on Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
peter
The Gap Into Spam
Posts: 11488
Joined: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:08 am
Location: Another time. Another place.
Been thanked: 4 times

Post by peter »

The inability of our [the UK's] Government to establish an effective trace, track and isolate system will be seen as one of it's greatest failings in the historical raking over of the ashes that will inevitably [and rightly] occur when all of this is over.

Tomorrow Prime Minister Johnson is to announce a significant increase in the local regulations and restrictions under which the North of the country currently abides and many will say that given the ever increasing number of Covid infections in the area, this was entirely inevitable. Ministers also refuse to rule out the need for a return to the complete national lockdown conditions of earlier in the year, should the current trends 'refuse' to be reversed, despite the best efforts of local administrations to keep them in check.

This reckoning of 'inevitability' is however to misunderstand the relationship between track and trace and lockdown ; lockdown and restrictive regulation, it must be understood, are only measures that are necessary to make up the shortfall above which track and trace cannot meet the challenges being placed upon it. In an ideal world - one in which all cases were immediately identified, all contacts immediately known and all at risk of spreading the disease immediately isolated - there would be no need for restrictions or lockdowns at all. The situation in South Korea exemplifies this, where swift action on this front enabled the country to weather it's outbreak with both minimal loss of life and damage to the economy.

That our own track and trace system has been [far from the "world beating" affair promised by our PM] a complete and utter shambles, a disaster and a national embarrassment, is undeniable [the twelve billion pond cost has to date traced something like 570,000 people at risk - a cost of around twenty two thousand pounds per contacted person]. What is becoming equally apparent is that had the system been left in the hands of the local authorities and the local NHS trusts [whose STD clinics are experienced in the business of tracing infected individuals within the local community that they serve] this embarrassment could have been avoided and much damage to our economy, past and future, likewise.

It is absolutely time that the Government handed over the administration of this crucial plank of the fight against Covid to the people best placed to deliver it and stopped attempting its top down approach using outsourcers already well reputed for their shocking record on efficiency. Until the track and trace system of the UK is rendered fit for purpose expect the devastation and turmoil exacted upon our economy by unnecessary lockdowns and restrictions to persist.
The truth is a Lion and does not need protection. Once free it will look after itself.

....and the glory of the world becomes less than it was....
'Have we not served you well'
'Of course - you know you have.'
'Then let it end.'

We are the Bloodguard
User avatar
peter
The Gap Into Spam
Posts: 11488
Joined: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:08 am
Location: Another time. Another place.
Been thanked: 4 times

Post by peter »

A couple of interesting pertinent news articles I've come across recently, the first said that evidence was mounting that there is far more innate immunity amongst populations to the Covid virus than had previously been thought. The hit from the disease in Africa has not been as hard as might have been expected, giving rise to the speculation that as much as fifty percent of the population might be effectively immune to infection. If true elsewhere as well, this could imply that populations across the globe are much closer to the fabled level of 'herd immunity' than had been thought. Might be wishful thinking - but it would be nice!

Second, and perhaps more realistically, Exeter University are currently developing trials to investigate whether the BCG vaccination that is used to grant immunity to tuberculosis, could have a side-effect of conferring a degree of protection against Covid as well, rendering the disease symptoms less severe should the virus be caught. This is a known side benefit of the BCG vaccine in respect of other virus infections, and it is suggested that if demonstrated to indeed be the case, it could buy a window of time in order for a more specific vaccination to be developed. Normally only given on one occasion if necessary in childhood, the scientists conducting the study suggest that a top-up shot could be given to adults in order to enhance the vaccines efficacy in providing this side benefit in respect of Covid.
The truth is a Lion and does not need protection. Once free it will look after itself.

....and the glory of the world becomes less than it was....
'Have we not served you well'
'Of course - you know you have.'
'Then let it end.'

We are the Bloodguard
User avatar
Hashi Lebwohl
The Gap Into Spam
Posts: 19576
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 7:38 pm

Post by Hashi Lebwohl »

Apparently the WHO is now saying that lockdowns are useful only to give your country time to regroup and reorganize, to give protected health workers a break, and are not that that useful at restricting the spread of corona.

On the one hand, some of us were saying that six months ago.

On the other hand, the WHO was wrong about corona in December through February while they were helping to cover the PRC's ass in its complicity with the misinformation about the origin and early spread of the virus.

This is clearly a case of "closing the barn door after all the horses have escaped" on the part of the WHO. As an organization, it lost all credibility in January.
The Tank is gone and now so am I.
User avatar
peter
The Gap Into Spam
Posts: 11488
Joined: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:08 am
Location: Another time. Another place.
Been thanked: 4 times

Post by peter »

My view of the WHO is not a million miles away from my view of the medical profession as a whole - it's not very good, but it's the best we've got.

Certainly there is a need for the UK to "regroup and reorganise" in our fight against Covid; the PM's stark statement of last night when, as predicted, he instituted a 'three tier' alert system over the UK with much of the North being placed in the middle [High Risk] tier, leaves little doubt of that - but it is interesting that such political backlash against this as is occuring in Parliament itself is coming from the PM's own back-benchers rather than from the opposition benches, who broadly support his moves. In fact if anything the Labour position seems to be that the restrictions to contact between peoples that are currently in place [the 'rule of six' across most of the country and restrictions to household mixing and hospitality venue openings in the North] do not go far enough.

But the general thrust of the morning's media seems to be that despite the total lockdown of the spring and summer, despite the partial and locally restrictive measures of the last couple of months, despite all of the social distancing and the mask wearing, we are back to square one. Incredibly, there are warnings now coming out that the NHS might become 'overwhelmed' as the second wave progresses. How can this be? We've known this was coming for months, we've had months to prepare the Nightingale Hospitals with emergency crews and ventilators and the necessary tools to admit all Covid patients. How come we to be in this place other than by complete and utter failure of our Government to prepare for it.
The truth is a Lion and does not need protection. Once free it will look after itself.

....and the glory of the world becomes less than it was....
'Have we not served you well'
'Of course - you know you have.'
'Then let it end.'

We are the Bloodguard
User avatar
Hashi Lebwohl
The Gap Into Spam
Posts: 19576
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 7:38 pm

Post by Hashi Lebwohl »

I would not worry too much. Corona is not that deadly except to a very small minority of people.

No pandemic has ever been as politicized as this one, which Democrats turned into a weapon against conservatives.
The Tank is gone and now so am I.
User avatar
Gaius Octavius
The Gap Into Spam
Posts: 3331
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:32 pm

Post by Gaius Octavius »

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:I would not worry too much. Corona is not that deadly except to a very small minority of people.

No pandemic has ever been as politicized as this one, which Democrats turned into a weapon against conservatives.
So everyone in every other country on earth are Democrats?
Locked

Return to “Coercri”