Covid-19

[DoctorGamgee]

In academia, schools are extending Spring Break for students to two weeks. At my college, faculty will return in one, and spend the second week getting everything we can online. My lecture classes will be easy, as I teach those online already. Voice lessons will be possible, but not great as the microphones all condense formants that tell me if they are really doing it correctly But we are three weeks from opening Hunchback of Notre Dame, which we cannot do online, and without the funds that this will raise, I am not sure of my survival.

Economic troubles indeed.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

I have been advocating over at the Texas Tribune that many university courses could be virtual all the time. If it isn't a lab or a performing arts class then there is no reason to meet in a physical room. As you note, though, a dramatic performance cannot be done in a virtual setting.

ur-Nanothnir, I wonder if Liberals would support suspending elections if coronavirus lasts until November? It won't of course, but it could flare up again...... Anyway, we know that police/national guard will implement de facto martial law to catch a bombing suspect so they will gladly do it to stop an infectious disease from spreading.

Our new current reality is this: if you were planning on attending any sort of public event this month, don't bother--chances are it is already closed, canceled, or rescheduled to an indefinite date. Out in California, Governor Newsom just signed an executive order which will allow State health agencies to commandeer private property--in this case, hotels--to house and quarantine coronavirus cases. California's population is 40 million and they have only 200 known cases; of course, they do have an extremely high homeless population--if one of them gets corona then urinates and defecates on the public sidewalk who knows how many people that could infect, not counting the possibility of other diseases such as typhus.

[Gaius Octavius]

It also depends how the virus is spread. Anyway, I am warning a dear friend who is living in the DC area to get the fuck out now. She doesn't believe me that martial law is a serious threat. I told her that the military could legally round up and shoot infected people to stop the spread, and she still doesn't believe me.

[Gaius Octavius]

If the president declares martial law, he will lose my support in this election. Take that check to the bank and cash it in, Sky and Av.

[aTOMiC]

This mass hysteria is just another example of how fragile our society has become. Because of social media and outrage politics the U.S. and the many parts of the world that have followed our lead have created a response to covid19 that has managed to threaten the livelihood and security of hundreds of millions of people all over the world.
Nobody wants this virus and like many others that threaten us every year it can be fatal to the infirm but it's not the grotesque killer that Ebola often can be. Covid19 is a virus that affects us in a very familiar way. It's no fun but for most it's a nuisance not a society destroyer. I hate to think about the finger pointing that will explode when the virus runs its course. The complaining after the H1N1 response will pale in comparison.

And if anyone suggests that wiping out my 401k was worth it to give the Earth a brief respite from carbon emissions or to give ammunition to Democrats to defeat Trump in the election, you will have earned my contempt.

[Obi-Wan Nihilo]

This mass hysteria is just another example of how fragile our society has become. Because of social media and outrage politics the U.S. and the many parts of the world that have followed our lead have created a response to covid19 that has managed to threaten the livelihood and security of hundreds of millions of people all over the world.
Nobody wants this virus and like many others that threaten us every year it can be fatal to the infirm but it's not the grotesque killer that Ebola often can be. Covid19 is a virus that affects us in a very familiar way. It's no fun but for most it's a nuisance not a society destroyer. I hate to think about the finger pointing that will explode when the virus runs its course. The complaining after the H1N1 response will pale in comparison.

And if anyone suggests that wiping out my 401k was worth it to give the Earth a brief respite from carbon emissions or to give ammunition to Democrats to defeat Trump in the election, you will have earned my contempt.

This.

What we are seeing in the markets is a complete overreaction. China's manufacturing again, and their case and death rates are falling. For most, this is a bad cold.

[Obi-Wan Nihilo]

I guarantee he does not.

I am curious how much formal medical training you have received, but I am not going to belabor the issue.

Next to none, but I listen to doctors. And when you read their papers, and listen to their interviews, they all say the same thing: this is overblown.

If you're healthy and under 60, this is an annoyance.

[TheFallen]

I think that's a tad too dismissive, Nihil.

Yes, it's an annoyance to the vast majority - but globally it will cause the deaths of hundreds of thousands if not millions.

As we all know, winter flu causes somewhere between 300k and 650k deaths annually worldwide according to WHO released stats - and that is not news, because it's business as usual. That represents a mortality rate of around 0.2%.

COVID is currently showing itself as at least every bit as infectious as winter flu - roughly 10% of Americans get winter flu every year, according to the CDC - but it's currently exhibiting around 10 to 20 times the mortality rate at somewhere between 2 and 4%. But of course these are early days stats, with most current data not coming out of Western first world democracies, so don't allow yet for better standards of healthcare, nutrition etc etc.

Leaving that to one side, the maths are thus really easy to work out... this might see off around 1 million Americans. And similarly around 250k Brits, but we'll see...

(Despite the above, I completely agree that there's been massive over-reaction to COVID-19 on pretty much all fronts).

Anyone up for a conspiracy theory? We could claim that COVID-19 was bio-engineered and released by the Dems to put a dent in the numbers of older voters, who are far less likely to be starry-eyed, naive and progressive?

Wait... that doesn't hold water, since the Dem Messiah elect and Great White Dope falls bang into the highest COVID-19 risk group... damn!

Wait again... perhaps we can blame the Squad?

[samrw3]

Here is my one my larger problems. So many institutions/governments/etc are shutting down/cancelling ets. What is their game plan? Keep closed/cancelled/etc until some cure is developed which could be months to over a year away?

Forbid all activities/shopping/any public chances of interactions? Where does this stop?

Here is the plain and simple truths:

Once the testing is distributed the cases are going to rise which will likely cause more panic and event strangleholds. What then - 100,000's or millions of people forcibly quarantined for two weeks? what then businesses lose employees then money then their business. More limited supplies/rationing??

The media/health care/governments need to attempt to get some calmness and rational thinking in here. As mentioned in other threads this is complete over reaction right now.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

If you're healthy and under 60, this is an annoyance.

I am much more annoyed by the panic over it more than the virus itself. Between the panic-buying at stores and the panic-selling at the stock markets I think there shouldn't be any sort of government interference and just let people run amok as they please.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

The Democrats want mass hysteria and for thousands of people to get sick and/or die because they can use all of that as political weapons to try and get rid of Trump. The more people who get sick the stronger their siren call of "free medical care for everyone" becomes. Every closed social event--incidentally, they aren't closing for altruistic purposes but because of potential liability costs--is another smile on a Liberal's face, hoping that people will start blaming Trump as to why their teenager's baseball game or graduation got postponed or canceled.

Remember--this virus started in China because they eat weird shit that human beings should not be eating. They did not manufacture the virus but they were definitely underreporting cases and not restricting travel because to do so would have caused their leaders to lose face. They let it get out of hand.

[Gaius Octavius]

The Democrats want mass hysteria and for thousands of people to get sick and/or die because they can use all of that as political weapons to try and get rid of Trump. The more people who get sick the stronger their siren call of "free medical care for everyone" becomes. Every closed social event--incidentally, they aren't closing for altruistic purposes but because of potential liability costs--is another smile on a Liberal's face, hoping that people will start blaming Trump as to why their teenager's baseball game or graduation got postponed or canceled.

Remember--this virus started in China because they eat weird shit that human beings should not be eating. They did not manufacture the virus but they were definitely underreporting cases and not restricting travel because to do so would have caused their leaders to lose face. They let it get out of hand.

This is also an impression I get as well. People are fanning the flames of chaos intentionally. People are losing their shit and raiding super markets over something that shouldn't really be a concern unless you're old or have some sort of chronic medical condition/smoking habit.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

I work part-time at a grocery store. So far this week, the general merchanise people have run out of hand sanitizer and "anti-bacterial" soap, my grocery section is out of disinfecting wipes, Lysol, almost out of bleach, toilet paper, and facial tissue, the pharmacy is out of rubbing alcohol, and my diary section ran out of milk last night, as well as most varieties of eggs. I had generic medium, large, and extra large eggs but nothing "special"; I had almost no generic whole, 2%, or 1% milk left, only juice, tea, and the last of the sour cream and cottage cheese to put out. The meat guys ran out of hamburger--they had to scan steaks out of the system, grind them, then repackage that into hamburger (ground chuck).

When I said "weird shit humans shouldn't eat" that was not to imply that corona is some sort of intestinal thing. No, when they have all those low-health-quality chickens, other birds, bats, snakes, and probably monkeys in an open-air market someone is bound to get sick from one of the diseased animals--this is probably how it got started.

Biden and Sanders are both in high-risk groups. Depending upon how things go, Tulsi Gabbard might be the only candidate left when the national convention is held. Actually, most of our high-profile political leaders are in high-risk groups--people in their late 60s or 70s with sub-optimal health.

[Wosbald]

+JMJ+

Pope Francis asks Mary's protection of Rome against coronavirus

Pope Francis prays before a statue of Mary at the end of a Mass March 12, 2020, in the chapel of his Vatican residence, the Domus Sanctae Marthae. At the beginning of the liturgy, the pope encouraged people to pray for their government leaders, who must make difficult decisions to contain the coronavirus pandemic. (CNS photo/Vatican Media)


Rome, Italy (CNA) -- As the Diocese of Rome holds a day of prayer and fasting for victims of coronavirus, or COVID-19, Pope Francis sent a message asking for the protection of the Blessed Virgin Mary, invoking her under her title of Salus Populi Romani.

"Under Your protection we seek refuge, Holy Mother of God. Do not despise the entreaties of us who are in trial, and free us from every danger, glorious and blessed Virgin," Francis prayed March 11 via video.

"You, Protectress of the Roman People, you know what we need and we are sure that you will provide so that, as in Cana of Galilee, joy and celebration may return after this trying moment," he said.

The pope's video was sent as part of the Diocese of Rome's call to spend March 11 in prayer and fasting for those who are sick with or have died from the virus.

[...]

A communication from the vicariate of Rome said the day is "a moment of grace, when united in spiritual communion, we will feel like brothers and sisters in faith, in solidarity, and not suspicious of each other."

"We will pray not only for our city, but for Italy and for the whole world," it said.

[...]

"Oh Mary, you always shine on our way as a sign of salvation and hope," Pope Francis prayed. "We rely on you, Health of the Sick, that at the cross you were associated with the pain of Jesus, keeping your faith firm."

"Help us, Mother of Divine Love, to conform to the will of the Father and to do what Jesus will tell us, which took our suffering upon itself and took on our pains to lead us, through the cross, to the joy of the resurrection."

[SoulBiter]

What is their game plan? Keep closed/cancelled/etc until some cure is developed which could be months to over a year away?

Forbid all activities/shopping/any public chances of interactions? Where does this stop?

This was learned from the 1918 Spanish flu. They are trying to flatline the number of cases so they dont overwhelm the facilities ability to deal with it. Lets say there are 45K respirators. What happens when 200K need them? Word from Italy is they have had to make decisions based on age and condition on "who" gets the respirator and "who" dies.

If they can have the same number of cases but spread it out over a longer period it serves two purposes. It helps to not overwhelm the facilities, and it gives us more time to find a treatment or vaccine.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

No one is talking about this but the time from the first reported case in China to the time of the first reported case in the United States was 28 days.

On a serious note, Trump is going to make another speech this afternoon where it is expected he will declare a national emergency, mobilizing more of the National Guard and giving FEMA broad authority to direct aid and coordinate cleaning/disinfecting missions.

Since most meetings of >= 100 people have been canceled and/or suspended indefinitely, shouldn't Congress suspend itself until the virus outbreak has been contained and the situation is improving?

[peter]

Interesting day in many ways this side of the pond in respect of Covid-19. The Government advice this morning was that people with 'new' persistent coughs and fevers should self-isolate, school trips should be cancelled and large gatherings of over a hundred people be avoided, but none of the more 'draconian' measures being instrumented in some other countries (like the shutting down of schools as is being done in Ireland, or the banning of large events). Despite this apparently somewhat relaxed approach from central government, many organizations are however taking the lead on such measures on their own backs - the Football Association have called off all league matches and the London Marathon has been postponed until October. Also salient that the Daily Mail ran the aforementioned Government advice on it's front page today - but sent an internal email to all of it's own staff saying that the advice was insufficient to protect them from infection and that it recommended that wherever possible they work from home and limit their personal contact with others to a minimum.

The Government have acknowledged that the containment phase of the operation is no longer appropriate since the evidence is that the virus is now firmly established in the population and is spreading via personal contact rather than simply being brought into the country by travellers from outside. While the tracking and isolation of these individuals was appropriate in the containment phase, it is no longer feasible and so now we are entering the delay phase in which the rate of spread will be attempted to be slowed down to a point where the health services can deal with the most serious cases as they arise (rather than have the system overloaded by them all occuring together. The idea is apparently to allow the disease to spread, albeit slowly, to allow herd-immunity to build up in the population at large, which in turn will result in the disease being unable to spread further (all a bit circular I know, but apparently this is how they figure it).

There has been a degree of criticism of this policy, not least by some experts in the field, who say that numbers of deaths that could have been avoided by adopting more restrictive measures (as seen in many other countries) in terms of movement and gatherings of people. One doctor I heard said that given the cohorts of the country that are likely to suffer from the highest mortality rates - the old, drug-users and prisoners in space restricted areas etc - he suspected an underlying cynicism in the Government's decided approach. The Government itself says that given we are probably six to eight weeks away from the peak of the incidence, to impose stringent restrictions at this point would be preemptive, and people would likely be ignoring the advice out of fatigue at the point when they really needed to be following it.

Be that as it may, the news from Italy tonight was not good; they have suffered their worst day of fatalities since the outbreak began with 250 people dying in the last 24 hours. To put this in context, they have around 12,000 confirmed cases to the UK's 900 or so. Incredibly, figures for the USA are almost impossible to guage since there is virtually no testing being carried out there; I believe only around 11,000 people in the whole country have been tested in total - less than some countries are carrying out every day. Iran in contrast is intending to test every person in the country (if I have it correctly). This insouciance in respect of the health of the nation seems crazy to me - bordering on the criminal almost; I wonder, has it to do with the absence of a state funded health care system? It is in situations such as these that the state services that so many decry come into their own. There is little incentive for private institutions to have the frameworks in place to deal with crises such as this and for this very reason that you shrink your centralised beurocracies to nothing simply in order to save money at your peril.

[Obi-Wan Nihilo]

It's not going to kill millions. Ebola didn't. H1N1 didn't. SARS didn't.

This is an attack on the POTUS. Everything else has failed, now his enemies have gone biological. Meanwhile, I'm sitting here with a month's worth of food & water, enough money to take care of my bills, and enough firepower to repel boarders.

[Ur Dead]

Wondering how hygiene would help...
or similar precautions.
Even the ladies of the street are being avoided.

[Savor Dam]

The international nature of this pandemic rather suggests there is more to it than simply "an attach on the POTUS."

Unless you are suggesting that (just as 911 paralleled the ending of "Debt of Honor") the current situation is a real-life variant of "Executive Orders." Interesting theory, but not bloody likely.