President Trump

[Savor Dam]

Today is 15 October 2019 and Trump has not yet been impeached. Why haven't they done it yet? Oh, yes, that's right--the Senate won't remove him from office.

The day may come (or may not) when the House passes articles of impeachment. Given the level of withheld cooperation (not calling it obstruction so as not to trigger anyone), when this happens, it will probably be when there is an airtight case and the Senate has little choice but to convict and remove after hearing the evidence.

Why is this being done in closed hearings so far? Unlike anything we've previously seen, this is not confined to domestic issues. What is happening has an international scope and openly discussing what happened could be even worse for US standing in the world than where we stand now.

Not only what is known, but how it is known, may be entirely beyond what can be made public. That prevented Iran-Contra from rising to the level of impeachment, but at least there was never a whiff of personal gain there, just a willingness to compromise one legitimate geopolitical objective to attain another.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

The day may come (or may not) when the House passes articles of impeachment. Given the level of withheld cooperation (not calling it obstruction so as not to trigger anyone), when this happens, it will probably be when there is an airtight case and the Senate has little choice but to convict and remove after hearing the evidence.

This current Senate will never remove a Republican from office via trial. The House can impeach but that endgame will never occur, which is why it is pointless even to be discussing impeachment, especially with only a year left before elections. If people want Trump out then vote him out.

[Savor Dam]

Never is a word with little ambiguity, Director. It hasn't been in my vocabulary for close to three years.

As regards the Senate trial, surely you've noted the subtle tectonic shifts in the last month. Starting from the near-monolithic solidarity seen heretofore, each of the cascading disclosures about how relations were conducted with Ukraine, China, Turkey, Syria, (who's next?) has generated reactions ranging from mild huffing to relatively direct criticism from many Republicans. Nothing definitive, but far less muted than had previously been voiced.

We don't know how the current multitude of much-to-do topics will pan out, but there are too many apparent data points (and far too much pushback to providing documentation that might categorically prove or disprove key allegations) to blithely accept any of the partisan narratives. There may be more than one instance of rot to be rooted out in more camps than just Trump's, but extrapolating what we've seen unravel recently (including evangelical resistance to the submission in Syria - they know what this precedes!) does have a whole range of potential outcomes where the Senate might choose to remove Trump and sing "All We Are Saying is Give Pence a Chance" to make the GOP ticket attractive to the Any Functioning Adult voting block.

[Gaius Octavius]

How much do you wanna bet that if they ever did successfully remove Trump from office that they would immediately try to do the same with Pence? They want power, not justice. They care about themselves, not the country.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

Never is a word with little ambiguity, Director. It hasn't been in my vocabulary for close to three years.

Good point. I should substitute "it is exceedingly unlikely" in place of "never". I base that on the fact that McConnell is still majority leader--he was not going to give any Obama appointee to the SCOTUS a hearing (abdication of duty, for which I criticized him) so it seems exceedingly unlikely that he will allow the GOP Senate to remove a GOP POTUS, regardless of how much they like or dislike him. Even if Nixon had not resigned, it is highly unlikely that the Senate at that time would have removed him, either.

The main point is this: today is 16 October 2019 and next year's Election Day is 10 November 2020. If they are going to impeach him, they need to do so before the campaign season kicks in to high gear in early January.

[wayfriend]

Closed door meetings are to encourage candid testimony about sensitive issues. Why do you suddenly find them suspicious?

If they ever impeach Trump then Pence will be taken out in the same act. He's too complicit and too dirty. Also Barr and Pompeo.

And the Dems keep uncovering worse and worse things. And they only have one shot, so they will make it their best one. They won't bring it to the Senate until they have so much evidence that the Senate will look corrupt for finding him innocent.

If, when the day comes, the Senate finds Trump innocent of crimes, then our country will have become too corrupt to save.

Michael McKinley is set to testify as part of the House Democrats' impeachment probe -- less than a week after resigning as a senior adviser to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Uncovering.

Along with Hill's testimony, another dam-breaker came late Monday with the New York Times report that Bolton, then National Security Adviser, was outraged by the efforts of Rudy Giuliani, Trump's personal lawyer, to recruit Ukraine into a plot to undermine Democratic Presidential hopeful Joe Biden.

And uncovering.

[Former US Special Envoy for Ukraine Kurt] Volker's testimony behind closed doors seems to confirm the whistleblower description in the complaint that Volker and another US diplomat "provided advice to the Ukrainian leadership about how to 'navigate' the demands that the President made."

And uncovering.

[DoctorGamgee]

The main point is this: today is 16 October 2019 and next year's Election Day is 10 November 2020. If they are going to impeach him, they need to do so before the campaign season kicks in to high gear in early January.

I get your point. But why? If I really wanted to throw a curve ball at the sitting president, I'd let him get through March, then on Tax day (when Trump won't turn over his returns) drop the hammer. May - October is the big run up to the election. At that point, if the Senate doesn't choose to vote, they will be facing backlash for not moving. I suppose on one hand, the Reps would show up in support, but so would the Dems, to counteract.

We are not the same America as we were in 2000 after Clinton's impeachment. And if by some mircale they got the Donald out, it would be harder to find a substitute for the Reps at that point.

What am I missing?

[SoulBiter]

The longer they draw this out into the election period, the more this looks like political posturing rather than any real attempt to unseat the President. It could be that they are waiting specifically to make sure the Reps have no time to run someone else on the ticket, perhaps ensuring a Democratic victory in what otherwise has the look of a landslide victory for the Republicans. If so, that may well backfire because if the Senate decides that is what is going on here, they will choose NOT to impeach regardless of the evidence.

[Savor Dam]

If they ever impeach Trump then Pence will be taken out in the same act. He's too complicit and too dirty. Also Barr and Pompeo.

Maybe, but we don't really know that yet. Still, (in Hashi's revised phrasing), it is exceedingly unlikely to happen that way.

Next in the line of succession after Pence is Pelosi. Even with an ironclad case against both Trump and Pence (and we are nowhere near that), it surpasses belief that the current Senate would make her POTUS. Next after her is Grassley, who seems untainted but also uninspiring. From there, we go to Pompeo and Mnuchin, followed by the rest of the Cabinet...except Chao, who is a naturalized citizen and ineligible to serve as President.

Nor is it likely that Pence could be replaced ala Spiro Agnew prior to removing Trump.

[wayfriend]

Next in the line of succession after Pence is Pelosi. Even with an ironclad case against both Trump and Pence (and we are nowhere near that), it surpasses belief that the current Senate would make her POTUS.

Correct.

I see it playing out this way: Pence resigns. A benign complacent placeholder from the Senate is appointed by the President as the new VP. Like Romney. Then the President resigns.

Because the Senate would see the President resign rather than see him become the first President ever indicted.

[Zarathustra]

Closed door meetings are to encourage candid testimony about sensitive issues. Why do you suddenly find them suspicious?

secrecy guarantees veracity? That is the first time I've heard that one. I thought that the bright light of day, not to mention the threat of perjury, is what guarantees the truth. If Republicans were running the show, and they were the ones throwing people out of committee hearings and refusing to have an open investigation, you would be suspicious too.

On the point of gathering enough evidence to make a definitive case against Trump, all this means is that the phone call itself was not damning enough. If the transcript is not enough to impeach Trump, then a why are we going through with this? I thought the whole point was that the phone call itself was the reason for impeachment. What else do the Democrats need if this is true?

[wayfriend]

The Republicans on the relevant committees are present in the meetings. Understand what you are moaning about, please.

It isn't about what is damning enough. It's about doing their job. You ever see a cop say, "that's enough to put him in jail, let's not investigate the criminal organization he was part of" ?

The more we uncover, the more of Trump's operation emerges.

We have it from several reliable sources now that Trump created a private unofficial channel between himself and Ukraine, which looked corrupt as hell, so that he could induce Ukrainian officials to produce material to help him get elected.

Another name for that is collusion.

The only difference between the Ukrainian collusion and the (as yet unproven) Russian collusion appears to be who suborned who.

Are we supposed to believe that Trump, who would collude with Ukraine, would not have colluded with Russia or anyone else?

The actual important thing here is not "having enough". It's understanding the extent to which our executive branch has compromised our country. I hope they do everything they need to in order to work that out, Trump be damned.

This whole "hurry up and impeach" taunt is as transparent as hell. You don't want this nest of treason uncovered even more.

[Zarathustra]

The Republicans on the relevant committees are present in the meetings. Understand what you are moaning about, please.

I didn't moan about a single thing. I predicted you moaning.

It isn't about what is damning enough. It's about doing their job. You ever see a cop say, "that's enough to put him in jail, let's not investigate the criminal organization he was part of" ?

Nothing stops them from continuing investigations after impeaching Trump. In fact, it might be easier because he would be powerless. No executive privilege or pardons. The Dems don't have enough to impeach him. That's what their hesitation means.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

And the Dems keep uncovering worse and worse things. And they only have one shot, so they will make it their best one. They won't bring it to the Senate until they have so much evidence that the Senate will look corrupt for finding him innocent.

If, when the day comes, the Senate finds Trump innocent of crimes, then our country will have become too corrupt to save.

Go buy a Powerball lottery ticket this weekend. You have a significantly better chance at winning the jackpot prize than this ever happening. In fact, it is more likely that an asteroid will strike the planet before next November's election than Trump being removed from office, much less impeached. As noted, the Democrats haven't impeached yet because thier endless fishing expeditions have yet to bear any fruit.

Don't let me dissuade you form holding out false hope, though--keep dreaming if that is what keeps you warm at night.

Today is 16 October 2019 and Trump has not yet been impeached.

I get your point. But why? If I really wanted to throw a curve ball at the sitting president, I'd let him get through March, then on Tax day (when Trump won't turn over his returns) drop the hammer. May - October is the big run up to the election. At that point, if the Senate doesn't choose to vote, they will be facing backlash for not moving. I suppose on one hand, the Reps would show up in support, but so would the Dems, to counteract.

All the impeachment hearings are not about actually impeaching the president. Just like the new catchphrase "AR-15s and AK-47s", the new anti-gun slogan, is designed to try and link those two weapons in the minds of people who might be listening--despite the fact that AK-47s are not used in mass shootings because in order to legally purchase one you are already on a Federal database--the goal of endless impeachment hearings is to try and plant the idea "Trump is a suspicious person and you should not vote for him" in the minds of voters. Not only is this a blatant Inception rip-off plot, but it isn't working--people have already made their minds up whether or not they will vote for Trump next November, provided he runs. In other words, Democrats in the House do not actually want to impeach him, they just want to make him look bad, which is purely political move and not "pursuing justice" as they would like people to believe.

[wayfriend]

Meanwhile, back in reality...

Ambassador breaks with Trump, testifying the President directed diplomats to work with Giuliani on Ukraine

US Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland was directed by President Donald Trump to work with Rudy Giuliani on Ukraine, he told Congress on Thursday, and was left with a choice: Abandon efforts to bolster a key strategic alliance or work to satisfy the demands of the President's personal lawyer.

[...] "Based on the President's direction, we were faced with a choice: We could abandon the goal of a White House meeting for President Zelensky, which we all believed was crucial to strengthening U.S.-Ukrainian ties and furthering long-held U.S. foreign policy goals in the region; or we could do as President Trump directed and talk to Mr. Giuliani to address the President's concerns," Sondland said in his opening statement.

"We chose the latter path, which seemed to all of us -- Secretary (Rick) Perry, Ambassador (Kurt) Volker, and myself -- to be the better alternative," Sondland continued. [link]

So this goes to the degree to which US foreign relations were held hostage to the President's personal desires. The degree is "a lot".

Subpoena for Rick Perry, it seems.

Trump to host G7 at his own Florida resort property

White House acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney announced during a White House press briefing that the 2020 G7 summit will be held at Trump National in Doral, Florida, from June 10-12.

Blatant. Dictionary. Corruption.

But one has to wonder if this is merely a ploy to change the direction of the news.

[Zarathustra]

So this goes to the degree to which US foreign relations were held hostage to the President's personal desires. The degree is "a lot".

Put "Vice" in that sentence and you've perfectly described what Biden allegedly did, and what Trump wanted to investigate. Why is investigating Biden's corruption "the President's personal desires" but Obama wanting Ukraine to investigate Trump's campaign manager "doing his job"?

You only think it looks suspicious when Trump does it.

Trump to host G7 at his own Florida resort property

White House acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney announced during a White House press briefing that the 2020 G7 summit will be held at Trump National in Doral, Florida, from June 10-12.

Blatant. Dictionary. Corruption.

Nope. It's being done at cost, no profit for Trump.

[wayfriend]

So this goes to the degree to which US foreign relations were held hostage to the President's personal desires. The degree is "a lot".

Put "Vice" in that sentence and you've perfectly described what Biden allegedly did.

Not even close. Biden didn't ask Ukraine to do anything for personal reasons (except in alternate facts) and he certainly didn't use non-official channels to do so, and he certainly was executing, not frustrating, our official foreign policy.

Blatant. Dictionary. Corruption.

Nope. It's being done at cost, no profit for Trump.

Only an idiot thinks Trump doesn't profit from this. There's more benefit to it than a hotel bill.

And please, please, don't compound the stupid by saying Trump doesn't need the money / the advertising / the prestige.

[Zarathustra]

Every President "profits" from their position of power. If you're going to use the word figuratively, instead of literal profit, then once again you're accusing Trump of something that is not unique to Trump.

You can only claim that Biden didn't personally benefit from his actions by ignoring that he got $900,000 (i.e. literal profit) from the company which he protected from a corruption investigation, not to mention his son getting a job he didn't deserve, and the lack of public scrutiny that would have come from an investigation into these affairs. Only an idiot would not see benefit to the Bidens from this action.

[Wosbald]

+JMJ+


Josh Marshall @joshtpm | Twitter

[Hashi Lebwohl]

Meanwhile, back in reality...

Meanwhile, Trump is polling better with likely Republican voters than any individual Democrat is among likely Democrat voters. Of course, this is becuase there are so many Democrat hopefuls--why is the DNC playing a game somewhere in between "throw everything at the problem and see what sticks" and "The Weakest Link"? I would strongly advise the DNC to anoint someone soon or that person is going to lose.

As far as Ambassador Sondland is concerned....well, he works for Trump so he can either do what he is told, he can resign, or he can be fired. I may not necessarily agree with what Trump is doing--and a lot of time I do not agree with him--but he is in charge of the State Department and that agency is legally his to run in any way he sees fit. This is Trump's equivalent of Obama's "I have a pen and a phone".

Trump is in Dallas this evening, only a 30 minute drive from where I live. I am not going down to the American Airlines Center unless someone offers me a lot of money up front first. Once the sun goes down and the event start to occur the level of crazy should increase dramatically....

Meanwhile, today is 16 October and Trump has not yet been impeached.

edit/add: okay, because we watched the Democrat debate we also watched Trump's rally streamed live. Typical rally stuff--a lot of political platitudes, accentuating the positives, minimize the negatives, and poke fun at political opponents.