Is Betelgeuse About to Explode?

[peter]

An unusual dimming that has been occurring in the normally bright red giant of the Orion constellation has caused scientists to speculate that it might be about to explode in the closet supernova that they have ever been able to observe. At a distance of only 700 light years the event would be clearly visible from earth and would give astronomers a ringside seat for one of the universe's most spectacular events.

The dimming has been taking place over the last few weeks and has taken the star from it's place in the top ten of brightest stars down into the lower twenties - significant evidence that something major is occurring within the heart of the beast. Not by any means an old star, the event - should it occur - would not be unprecedented. Red giants tend to be short lived and commonly blow themselves to pieces in the supernovae that have assumed almost mythical status in the popular imagination, such is their unbridled power.

I for one would however be sorry to see the old girl (boy?) go. Betelgeuse has been part of my life since Michael Keaton played him back in the eighties and iirc he/she made an appearance in The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Universe all those years ago. Spotting the star through my binoculars as a stoner youth while out at night was a buzz to match the other type I was enjoying and the thought that we might be about to witness the end of an era that precedes our own to the nth degree has a certain pathos to it. Despite the no doubt high excitement that such an event would cause the scientific community, for me it would be tinged with sadness. Still, if you are going to have to go anyway, then I guess that's the way to do it. And at least the old/young girl/boy would have the consolation of knowing that she/he was playing to the first audience in the history of the universe that has the capability to be awestruck, dumbstruck and every other kind of struck by the majesty of the departure.

[High Lord Tolkien]

Cool!
I wonder how bright it's going to be.
That will be interesting to see it happen....although it might already have.

[Zarathustra]

Pete, while your emotions were eloquently expressed, I would not share them in the slightest! To live in a time when a star goes supernova in our galactic backyard would be 1000 times more spectacular than seeing the solar eclipse 2 years ago.

HLT, I haven't checked the experts yet for this particular supernova, but I know that ones in the past out shined the full moon, being visible in the daytime and casting a shadow at night!

[Rigel]

Here's the Popular Science article on it:
We really don't know when Betelgeuse is going to explode

When Betelgeuse finally explodes, some estimate it will be so bright as to appear like a second moon in the night sky.

But here's the clincher for me:

It's been particularly faint during recent weeks, which coudl mean Betelgeuse is going through some life-phase we've never observed before. Or it could also just be business as usual.

My question is, how long does the dimming have to go on before we know that something is up? Are we talking about a few weeks, a few months, or a few years?

[High Lord Tolkien]

It's been particularly faint during recent weeks, which coudl mean Betelgeuse is going through some life-phase we've never observed before.

It's going to collapse in on itself and then start to send out massive planet killing bi-directional pulses of gamma radiation.
One of which is coming our way.....

(I'm a glass is half empty kind of guy)

[peter]

Apparently the dimming is accompanied by a change in shape - as HLT says above, something we have not observed before in a star such as this (or any other type if I'm correct). This has made the boffins rethink the idea that it is about to explode - now they think it's doing something else altogether. As good an opportunity for the use of the phrase "watch this space" as I've come across for a while, so forgive me if I succumb to the temptation!

[Avatar]

Uh, surely at 700 light years away, whatever is "happening" has either already happened, or we (you and I) will never know because we'll be dead before we can actually see the outcome?

--A

[peter]

Yes, but even so we will see it (or indeed experience any effects therefrom) as if it were happening now. No?

(Not that I'm aware that it could have any effects on us, but even if it could they could not reach us at faster than the light that shows us what is happening could, the speed of light being unbreachable and all that.)

[Avatar]

Well yes, we will see it as if it were happening now. But if it happens "now", it actually happened when the Scots signed the Declaration of Arbroath.

--A

[Cord Hurn]

Well yes, we will see it as if it were happening now. But if it happens "now", it actually happened when the Scots signed the Declaration of Arbroath.

--A

Ah, so circa the year 1320.

[Fist and Faith]

I can't imagine too many things more exciting than this. I'd trade it to have a few Playboy bunnies gang up on me, since there would be a vastly greater chance of a second supernova happening in my lifetime. But to see a supernova so close we could see it with our naked eye? And what we could capture with out instruments?? Too damned incredible.