Covid-19

[SoulBiter]

My wife reminded me this AM, if this hits Haiti, there will be few left on that island.

[peter]

Heard that an Oxford University study reckoned that a fall in GDP of 6.4 percent would result in more lost 'life hours' than the predicted loss from the virus. Current estimates reckon that global GDP will fall by fifteen percent. There are consequences what ever way you look at it.

[Avatar]

Brutally interestingly enough, some latest research predicts that, although third world countries are going to suffer more greatly from having such healthcare resources as they do possess being more overwhelmed, in terms of eventual mortality they will see some benefit from in general not having such elderly populations in the first place.

True, average age is much lower, because people die younger. But I think it may be offset by the number of immuno-compromised. 24 million HIV+ people on the continent, a majority of which suffer from resultant issues like TB.

If the various countries don't manage to contain the spread, it could be devastating.

--A

[Gaius Octavius]

Just imagine the shitstorm if this turned out to be a Chinese bioweapon.

[Savor Dam]

The thought had occurred to me, but I am in the midst of a reread of Executive Orders, currently in the section when it is being realized that what is happening is an intentional bio-war attack.

Might not be the Chinese, though; they might be just the test case. Take a look at where it isn't spreading so virulently.

Or it may be nothing of the sort.

[peter]

We have been plunged into a strange world that none of us can like, none of us can be happy with. Can I ask that every time you are stopped by a policeman demanding to know where you are going, why you are out on the streets of the free country that you suppose to be your home, that before answering his questions you remind him that it is you who are the master in this situation and that it is he who is the servant. And that this applies from Trump or Johnson or whoever, right down to the lowliest copper on the beat or gun toting army Jarhead. Comply, show your documentation - but never fail to remind him of his place as servant to you and your place as master of him. If not reminded constantly of this it will be but a short time before he - and they, right up to the top of the chain - forget it.

[TheFallen]

Yesterday's percentile identified COVID-19 case increase figures as follows:-

US - 21.9% (18.7k newly identified cases)

UK - 24.7% (2.9k newly identified cases)

Italy - 7.3% (5.9k newly identified cases)

Spain - 13.7% (7.9k newly identified cases)

Again apparent good news for Italy (and Spain is showing signs of curbing the rise in new cases too).

The irony is that both nations will see an elevated rise in deaths as existing cases work through the system and come to one conclusion or another. This is the inevitable two to four week lag factor that seems clearly to apply.

The UK and US's percentage identified case increases are still concerningly high, both being over 20%, but this is probably down to the same lag factor, with imposed social distancing measures not factoring in yet, plus increased levels of testing also applying distortion.

Having said that, just looking at nations with 3,000 or more identified COVID-19 cases, yesterday only four (the US, the UK, Portugal with 21.9% and particularly Turkey with 57.0%) reported percentile rises over the 20% level.

One other thing is apparently being borne out from the Worldometer provided data - and that there is still very little credibility assignable to the numbers being reported by China. It's now reporting a new identified case increase level of just 0.06%, despite having (allegedly) the third highest "installed" base of identified cases. The next lowest is South Korea, reporting a daily increase 15 times higher at a still impressive 0.9%.

[Gaius Octavius]

Quit being racist. China never had the virus.

[Gaius Octavius]

We have been plunged into a strange world that none of us can like, none of us can be happy with. Can I ask that every time you are stopped by a policeman demanding to know where you are going, why you are out on the streets of the free country that you suppose to be your home, that before answering his questions you remind him that it is you who are the master in this situation and that it is he who is the servant. And that this applies from Trump or Johnson or whoever, right down to the lowliest copper on the beat or gun toting army Jarhead. Comply, show your documentation - but never fail to remind him of his place as servant to you and your place as master of him. If not reminded constantly of this it will be but a short time before he - and they, right up to the top of the chain - forget it.

"Freedom terrorism."

Preventing police from doing their official duties by reminding them that they are servants to the public (i.e., you) is hate speech.

[Ur Dead]

Just imagine the shitstorm if this turned out to be a Chinese bioweapon.

How come you peeps blatantly dismissed it when I suggested it.
a few pages back.

[SoulBiter]

https://www.foxnews.com/tech/cellphone- ... rom-travel

Watch the heat map of just ft Lauderdale spring breakers after they finally dispersed. That was just one beach of many.

Give this another couple of weeks and we are likely to see an explosion of new cases nationwide.

[peter]

Will someone just explain to me why I can go to my shop and serve a hundred people with scratch cards and booze but I can't walk down my own path to my car, drive out into the country and find an isolated spot to have a walk with my wife with no other people remotely near us to get some exercise. If I can get even the remotest bit of logic behind this to justify it I'll buy it. Until then I'll go on considering it an unjustified encroachment of my freedom, even in the face of the current situation. Instead I'm apparently expected to walk out in the locality of where I live where I will pass in close proximity to the many other people also trying to get some exercise in the same roads who live close by. If I do drive out, I risk being pulled over by the police and warned/ fined or whatever for breaking the lockdown rules. I'm sorry for the folks who have no car and can't take this option, but surely it's better not to cram us into the same small area like this unnecessarily? Surely as long as we're sensible about it and don't all go flocking to the beach or same locations it isn't going to do any harm and is going to alleviate much of the pressure that being placed under this effective house arrest is going to put us under.

[TheFallen]

SB I agree. That's a scary heat map. As with all things COVID-19 related, there'll be a 2 to 3 week delay in seeing the effect of those numbnut morons.

Pete, the only answer in your specific case is that there is zero logic. However if you look at last weekend and the clueless crowds flocking to picturesque locations like Snowdonia, perhaps the regulation has been put in place to dissuade those types of idiot and you're just catching the fallout?

[Hashi Lebwohl]

I never realized so many people were worryworts. 10 million dead worldwide? Bullshit--won't happen.

I have never tried to compare this outbreak to the seasonal flu or auto accidents directly, since those deaths are spread out, but I have maintined that no one gives a fuck about all those deaths, so why are we all freaking out now? Did any of you think twice about all the people who died from seasonal flu last year? Anyone who answered "yes" is a liar--I didn't think about them for a second.

I would go ahead and fully quarantine New York, New Jersey, and California, though; the quarantines should restrict all travel to/from those areas except for food, medical supplies, and medical personnel. The quarantines could be enforced by the military--a temporary suspension of Posse Comitatus could be handed out by Executive Order. Oh, wait--we don't have to because technically it is already suspended.

If we are going to accept violations of civil liberties then we might as well violate them all the way.

[Gaius Octavius]

[peter]

I notice that there are no nine 'o' clock hand clappings for the people who work in retail, serving in the supermarkets and 7-11's upon which we depend to see the bulk of the population through the lockdown.

Yesterday a man dressed like Judge Dread berated me in front of the other customers for walking too close to him in a narrow aisle as I went to my till. He then came to my till with a newspaper and a couple of bars of chocolate and paid me with a fistful of filthy change from his pocket, presented with the rubber gloves that he had no doubt been wearing for two weeks since the crisis began. I'm seriously beginning to wonder why I bother. My assistant manager has signed himself of for three months (on no pay) after first ensuring that he can return to his job following the break. He's not sick, but gives instead the reason that his mother, who does not live with him, is ninety two ( ) and the bosses have bought it. Meanwhile those of us who have elected to stay and take the risk are supposed to be okay with this.

Meanwhile the army are setting up a field hospital in a local college in which those of us who are designated to die can be hidden away from the rest of the populace while they get on with this no doubt inconvenient business. Anyone remember the Danny Boyle film The Beach?

[peter]

Meanwhile, what is the possibility that we are doing all of this toward no discernible end? If more Draconian lockdowns on the continent are doing nothing to stem the spread of the virus (I don't know - are thy?) isn't what we are doing akin to trying to stop the waters from the damn bursting by putting your fingers in front of it. Do we not risk, in these methods of trying to stop the destruction of our society....... destroying our society.

The suggestion is that as the heat dies down a gradual relaxation of the restrictions will begin - passports for those tested clear to begin limited travel etc - with documentation for this and that, provisions for this purpose and that purpose - and of a sudden, by default and almost by accident (and certainly no-one's intention today) we are in a stasi like state which we have all unwittingly bought into and once started, have no power to stop. How do we come out of this? These are things we need to be thinking about, even at this pre the apocalypse stage.

(Bizzare lockdown behaviour take1; in Derby the police apparently poured black dye into a local beauty spot's lake (normally noted for its crystal clear waters) in order to discourage people from visiting the site.)

[Obi-Wan Nihilo]

I have never tried to compare this outbreak to the seasonal flu or auto accidents directly, since those deaths are spread out, but I have maintined that no one gives a fuck about all those deaths, so why are we all freaking out now? Did any of you think twice about all the people who died from seasonal flu last year? Anyone who answered "yes" is a liar--I didn't think about them for a second.

A point I've made numerous times. Everyone's too busy getting spun up and wanting to accuse me of conflating things.

Groups define themselves by shared fears. This is a fascinating sociology experiment - as fascinating as the Stanford Prison Experiment. People are eagerly surrendering their rights and shaming those who question what they're doing.

[Lazy Luke]

A fascinating sociology experiment! Yeah, like a risk assessment and a rehearsal for something much bigger.

[TheFallen]

I never realized so many people were worryworts. 10 million dead worldwide? Bullshit--won't happen.

I have never tried to compare this outbreak to the seasonal flu or auto accidents directly, since those deaths are spread out, but I have maintined that no one gives a fuck about all those deaths, so why are we all freaking out now?

I have no idea why you keep asking the same question that's now been answered by several on several occasions. Sure you may disagree with, dislike or disbelieve the oft-given answer as to why many are convinced that the COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented issue- but asking the same already answered question interminably serves no value.

Also I really am not sure what intellectual rigour there is in your bald and utterly unsupported assertion that 10 million globally won't die. You may accidentally turn out to be right in the long run - but literally all you're doing is expressing a personal gut feel based on nothing.

Anyhow, back to stats and data, rather than facile personal guesses...

Yesterday's percentile rises in newly identified COVID-19 cases:-

US - 18.7% increase (19.5k new cases making a total identified of 123.6k)

UK - 17.5% increase (2.5k new cases making a total identified of 17.1k)

Italy - 6.9% increase (6.0k new cases making a total identified of 92.5k)

Spain - 11.4% increase (7.5k new cases making a total identified of 73.2k)

Again good news for Italy in terms of suppression of the growth rate in new cases - and Spain shows signs of being similar. Unfortunately, both countries are going to see elevated new COVID-19 deaths over the next few weeks as existing identified cases work their way to one conclusion or another through the system - but the measures that both nations have imposed are at least seemingly starting to show an effect in terms of the "feed" into the disease process.

There's a piece in the UK media today (the Mail On Sunday, I believe) utterly slamming the Chinese for the disinformation and the downright lies that the State over there is continuing to pump out. And quite right too - none of the Chinese State's "official" issued stats are to be believed in the slightest and apparently, it has already re-opened many of its so-called "live" markets, where different odd species of animal are stored live together and slaughtered together on-site.

China is being an utter and irresponsible disgrace - and I seriously hope, once the dust has settled on this pandemic, that there's a backlash and sanctions imposed globally against them.