Covid-19

[Avatar]

Poetic justice?

--A

[Wosbald]

+JMJ+

Pope Francis shares his vision for Covid-19 aftermath [In-Depth]

In an editorial published April 17, 2020, by the Spanish magazine Vida Nueva, Pope Francis said Christians are called to be joyful witnesses to Christ's victory over death during the coronavirus pandemic. (CNS file photo/Paul Haring)


Pope Francis has presented "a plan for the rising up again" of humanity in the midst of a global crisis that has brought the world's peoples and the economy to their knees. He shared it in an exclusive meditation for Vida Nueva, the Spanish religious weekly, in which he reflects on the coronavirus pandemic in the light of the resurrection of Jesus.

"Un plan para resucitar" ("A plan for rising up again") is the title he chose for the reflection. In it he does not conceal his concern over the crisis caused by a pandemic that has infected more than 2 million people, caused the deaths of over 140,000 and wreaked havoc on the world's economy. In Spain alone 190,000 people have been infected and 19,600 have died.

Pope Francis says our experience today mirrors in many ways that of the disciples of Jesus after his death and burial in the tomb. Like them, "we live surrounded by an atmosphere of pain and uncertainty," and we ask, "Who will roll away the stone [from the tomb?]"

But like the women waiting at the tomb, Pope Francis said, we ask: "Who will roll away the stone?"

He likens the stone that sealed the tomb of Jesus to the tombstones of the pandemic that "threatens to bury all hope" for the elderly living in total isolation, for families who lack food and for those on the front lines who are "exhausted and overwhelmed."

He recalls, however, that the women who followed Jesus did not allow themselves to be paralyzed by anxiety and suffering. "They found ways to overcome every obstacle," simply "by being and accompanying."

[...]

Pope Francis describes the present moment as a "propitious time" to be open to the Spirit, who can "inspire us with a new imagination of what is possible."

Indeed, today, "frontiers fall, walls crumble, and all the discourse of the fundamentalists [integristas] dissolve in the face of an imperceptible presence which shows the fragility of which we are made." But, he says, "Easter calls us and invites us to remember this other discreet and respectful, generous and reconciling presence, so as to start that new life which is given to us."

[...]

He insists that "an emergency like Covid-19 is overcome in the first place by the antibodies of solidarity." This lesson "breaks all the fatalism in which we have immersed ourselves and allows us to return to be the architects and protagonists of a common history," he says, and it enables us "to respond together to the many evils that are affecting so many of our brothers and sisters across the globe."

[...]

Indeed, he says, "if we act as one people, also in the face of the other epidemics that are hitting us, then we can have a real impact."

In reference to these other epidemics, Francis raises a series of questions: "Are we capable of acting responsibly in the face of the hunger, suffered by so many in a world where there is in fact food for all? Will we continue looking the other way in the face of wars fueled by [the quest for] domination and power? Are we willing to change our style of life that submerges so many in poverty, by promoting and encouraging a more austere and human lifestyle that makes possible a more equitable sharing of resources? Will we adopt, as an international community, the necessary measures to stop the devastation of the environment, or will we continue to deny the evidence [of this devastation]? Will the globalization of indifference continue threatening and tempting our journey?"

[...]

[peter]

I wonder if history will look at the lockdown as a totally understandable - given the unprecedented circumstances we find ourselves in - but misguided response to this "damned if you do - damned if you don't" scenario; have we torn our economies apart to no end other than a brief postponement of the inevitable - that sooner or later we are all going to have to bite the bullet and get out there and start living again, albeit with a bit more social distancing and the like incorporated into our lives. Mayhap the only way for us to fight this thing is really to let our immune systems do the job for us? Millions will die - but millions die in wars and we countenance them all of the time and we don't stop living our lives because of them (excepting those who die of course). This time, maybe the war we fight is at home - in our schools and pubs and football stadiums. Maybe the 'herd immunity' route is the only one that really stands a chance of defeating this shape-shifting chimera (okay - it's not a chimera, but I'm going for poetry here ) - and taking the casualties on the chin just as you do in conventional war.

And I genuinely believe that in time there is a reasonable expectation that the virus will mutate away from it's highly aggressive form into less virulent states. Wouldn't the selection pressure (or whatever term the evolutionary biologists use to describe the 'push' in a given direction by natural selection) dictate this? Little attention has been paid to the Parvo outbreak in dogs of the seventies (?) but there are significant areas of comparison. In this case I believe the mortality rate of infected dogs fell from almost one hundred percent to if not zero, then certainly very low levels under it's own steam and long before the vaccination was produced. The virulence of the disease simply seemed to evaporate before the veterinary professions eyes (with the caveat that this is anecdotal from the front line rather than something I can say based on any study).

Will something of a similar nature occur here if the virus is given free reign? I don't deny the terrible heartache that the loss of a loved one brings; but wars bring such casualties and maybe this time we have to accept that it is each and every one of us that must get out and take the fight to this thing instead of being able to sit back and send our youth to some foreign shore to do it for us.

[wayfriend]

I wonder if history will look at the lockdown as a totally understandable

History has already rendered it's verdict:

When Denver backed off social distancing in the 1918 pandemic, the results were deadly

It was 1918 and Denver Mayor William Fitz Randolph Mills bowed to business leaders and decided to back off social distancing. Armistice Day seemed like a perfect day to do it. [...] Grateful citizens streamed into the streets of the city on November 11, 1918, soon after Denver's Manager of Health William H. Sharpley declared the "plague under control!"

[...] Even in those early days of public health, with limited scientific remedies, social distancing and masks were understood to help stem the tide of pandemic.

[...] some experts tried to calm fears by saying the Spanish influenza epidemic was "ordinary influenza by another name,"

[...] But folks were bristling at being asked to stay indoors in the picturesque autumn and businesses -- especially movie theaters -- were irritated at losing so much money because of what seemed like a relatively isolated pandemic.

[...] Another pattern in past pandemics is trying to scapegoat immigrants and vulnerable communities for spreading the disease. Immigrants, the poor and Native American tribes were being accused of spreading the disease across Colorado.

[...] Instead of being at the end of the influenza's toll on Denver, the city was only halfway through its ordeal. By backing off social distancing too early, they utterly failed to flatten the curve, and suffered a second bump, as this graph of cities by National Geographic shows.

By November 22, deaths were spiking and Denver officials scrambled to reinstate bans on public and private gatherings and requiring masks for all commerce.

But the damage had been done. Five days later, Denver Post headlines blared the bad news: "All Flu Records Smashed in Denver in Last 24 Hours," claiming that more Denver residents had died of influenza than Coloradans killed in the First World War.

[...] Premature declarations of victory guarantee defeat. Buckling to protests increased the number of dead.

[...] As Harry Truman said, "The only thing new in the world is the history you don't know." [link]

[SoulBiter]

There are lessons to be learned from that. However....

How many think we can just "wait out" this virus and for how long? What is the right length of time to keep continue with this lock down? Two more weeks? A month, 3 months, 6 months?

A vaccine is 18 months away if there will ever be such a thing.
Herd immunity will take less time, but only if people are allowed to be exposed.
New treatments are a month at the earliest from being approved.

How much money can the govt print (without a GDP to speak of) before rampant inflation and not just a recession but a Depression is brought on?

So feel free to join in here. What time frame? What will be the longer term repercussions to the economy? Will the same number of people die, regardless of what we do, just over a longer (or shorter) length of time.

(Remember that if you get on a vent, almost 90% are dying anyway.)

In the news this morning it says that a majority of those dying are because they have underlying issues. Overweight, high blood pressure, Diabetes. Some have more than one of these and those get hit the hardest. Blacks are being hit by this the hardest BECAUSE of they tend to have more of these issues.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

People keep trying to compare COVID-19 (a coronavirus) with Spanish Flu (an H1N1 virus); the only way they are comparable is because they are viral outbreaks--this corona is orders of magnitude less deadly than Spanish Flu--which, incidentally, also originated in China. Best estimates are that Spanish Flu infected anywhere from 10% to 30% of the global population and that 1% to 5% of the global population actually died. As of yesterday, corona has infected only about 0.035% of the global population and has killed 0.00237%--corona would have to be 100 times more infectious and 1000 more fatal to equal Spanish Flu. If everyone had said "fuck social distancing--full speed ahead" it still would not have been as bad as Spanish Flu.

The vast majority of corona deaths in the United States are actually because of underlying comorbidities--hypertension, diabetes, etc...but we knew that would be a problem three months ago. The only new information we have about corona is that it was here earlier than we thought it was (but that also means it is less deadly than earlier imagined) and the daily updated death numbers, which serve only to continue causing people to panic.

Stop living in fear...and for fuck's sake quit reacting out of fear. We should never have forced all those small businesses to close--we will have a recession now but hopefully we can forestall a depression because of idiotic political choices.

edit/add: The actions taken by politicians will cause more damage, and have more long-lasting damage results, than the virus itself. Democrats have followed Alinsky's advice about never letting a crisis go to waste and even Republicans adopted Progressive policy ideas such as mandating cash payments directly to citizens and businesses, the very businesses they told to shut down. Democrats--we can forgive them because despite the fact that they don't know any better at least they are consistent. All those Republicans....they are now "Progressive Lite".

Corona did not merely kill tens of thousands of United States citizens, it actually killed the United States. This is no longer the country the Founding Fathers built; instead, with all these cash bailouts, forced business closings, orders to wear masks in public, preventing the expression of First Amendment liberties, and threats to imprison people for not following CDC guidelines--which are not laws, by the way--this is the People's Republic of America.

Good day, citizen. Papers, please. Oh, you aren't an essential worker? Off to jail with you!

[Zarathustra]

Republicans are literally trying to kill Democrats.

My, what unifying sentiments you express! I'm so inspired by your warm-and-fuzzy lack of divisiveness!

Dude, you're a fucking caricature of dumbass hatred. Just bottom barrel stupidity and trolling. The very lowest of political expression. Your contributions here are a cancer on the conversation, so devoid of worth I can't believe your manhood doesn't shrivel up a few millimeters at each keystroke from the sheer, cowardly impotency of your words. You should be ashamed of yourself for typing such things.

But sadly, you're not the only caricature here . . . and yes, I'm thinking of people with whom I usually agree. Hashi. Obi. This "paper please" and "home arrest" hyperbole bullshit is just as dumb and extreme as "Republicans want people to die." You guys are mirroring each other from opposite sides.

You all need to read this very interesting article from Reason.com, which addresses how each side is making a caricature of the other--and, in the process, themselves. (I'll post more excerpts in the Covid thread.)

To sum up each side in the language of their angriest opponents: The "Closers" want to demolish nearly all Americans' ability to live, and destroy nearly all the wealth our society has built up over decades, by halting the wheels of most commerce for the forseeable future. And the "Openers" are so dedicated to keeping GDP growing and so ignorant of science they want to see hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of Americans die of a hideous disease because they don't understand how contagion works.

Don't be a caricature. Don't turn others into one.

I'm proud that my response to this health care/economic crisis could not have been predicted by my politics. Kudos to SB and TF for their similarly reasonable perspectives. As with most pragmatic issues, there is a middle ground between dogmatic ideology and dumbass partisan hate-mongering.

[Zarathustra]

Though it may not be reflected in my posts here, personally, I have found myself on both sides of this debate as I listen to friends and family draw battle lines and take sides. My posts haven't emphasized this personal, private debate, because I've mainly been reacting here to Obi's forceful, uncompromising position (I mean that both ways--both good and bad. As TF says, it can be respectable to stick to your guns, but also short-sighted and inflexible).

As I've addressed in the SCOTUS thread, I think many of the perspectives here are caricatures of this debate . We have "Closers" and "Openers." I'm neither. I see the value in both positions, and think we need both approaches, at different times. As I said in the other thread, this article from Reason.com spells out the differences and how each side is exaggerating those differences with mean-spirited, dumbass caricatures.

What I found really surprising is this snippet of a description of "Openers:"

Openers do take very seriously the idea of "flattening the curve"-perhaps, an Opener might think, even more seriously than the Closers do, because Openers can't help but think that this virus will, over whatever length of time, infect everyone everywhere until herd immunity is reached or by whatever method R0 becomes less than one.

That is, Openers think it reasonable to consider that we are not facing a choice to "save lives" (or delay deaths) in the sense of preventing infections from ever occurring, which is more or less impossible now. The only really important consideration now is excess deaths or serious illness complications caused by inadequate medical facilities because at some given day in some specific hospital COVID cases are overwhelmingly large.

Openers thus wonder why more public policy decisions aren't being made based on a rigorous calculation of that number, now and in a reasonably foreseeable future based on best understanding of our hospital capacity, how quickly we could increase that capacity if that became public policy priority one, and the prevalence, percentage symptomatic, and percentage brought to brink of death by the disease.

So I'm an Opener! I never would have guessed! Given my experience lately in the Tank, I've taken Obi as emblematic of the "Opener." But the above doesn't describe him. Instead of focusing on the danger of overwhelming the health care system (as opposed to death rates or infection rates), Obi completely dismisses that concern along with all the rest of them. He has said that none of these dangers were as bad as advertised, and none of the fears--including overwhelming hospitals--were ever going to happen (even as some hospitals have been in danger of being overwhelmed). Apparently, this is not your typical, reasonable "Opener." It's an extreme.

But then I read more and think I'm a Closer:

However, the Closers have many reasons that make sense to them to keep things closed that don't involve a mad desire to tyrannize the country or harm Trump. Closers see and acknowledge the economic damage we are suffering, but they see most of that damage already inherent in the unchecked spread of a disease that kills or seriously harms people to a greater extent than any we've dealt with in a century. They thus don't see the economic problems as solvable just by "opening up America."

This describes me a few weeks ago, before I decided it was time to open the economy again. I have said that the economic damage was going to happen anyway, given an unchecked virus pandemic.

But then I read crazy shit like this:

Closers see anyone who, aware that COVID-19 exists and can spread asymptomatically, then does anything that could in any way risk someone else catching it as morally akin to murderers.

Nope, I'm not a Closer in that sense!

I think we all need to take a step back from our battle lines and stop this me-vs-you bullshit approach to a very serious debate. It's not an issue of values vs deaths. We're not two camps comprised of A) people who want others to die and B) people who want tyranny. That's just a cartoon, folks! After this is all over, we're going to see that the worst fears on either side were exaggerated. Overstating the case, painting the other side in black-and-white extremes, only gets in the way of striking an effective middle ground that take all concerns into consideration, seeking a balance of pros/cons.

I guess I'm the one arguing for unity, after all. Huh, ironic.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

But sadly, you're not the only caricature here . . . and yes, I'm thinking of people with whom I usually agree. Hashi. Obi. This "paper please" and "home arrest" hyperbole bullshit is just as dumb and extreme as "Republicans want people to die." You guys are mirroring each other from opposite sides.

You chose to voluntarily give up your Constitutional freedoms; don't get mad at us about it. I still cannot find the phrase "except in case of viral outbreak" in the Constitution, and I keep it saved as a document on all my computers so I can never be without a copy.

If you think you are free, though, then go to Houston next week and do not wear a mask out in public. You should probably take $1,000 cash with you, though, because if you can't pay the fine they will put you in jail and I don't want to have to go into the Harris County jail to visit you.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

Closers see anyone who, aware that COVID-19 exists and can spread asymptomatically, then does anything that could in any way risk someone else catching it as morally akin to murderers.

Most Closers were already Democrats of some flavor; the mindset of "anyone who disagrees with us is morally *wrong*" already existed and this is just another version of it. That is why they must be opposed at all times--they want collective groupthink and subservience to the government orders without question, even if those orders are idiotic. Incidentally, since most Closers were also abortion supporters their position is logically nonsensical--for pity's sake don't let someone die from coronoa, but go ahead and kill that fetus because it, like comic book store employees, is "nonessential". Closers also need the economy to stay stalled now, just like they needed people to die last month, so they can use that as a political weapon against Trump--I suspect in two months we will hear "the numbers show that Trump could have opened the economy earlier, but chose not to do so, so all the problems are his fault".

My opposition has always been to the unconstitutional abridgement of liberty--I don't care if a virus is spreading, people still have the right to gather together if they choose to do so.

Early on, the alarmists saw China then Italy and though we would soon be at "bring out your dead" territory. China lied about its numbers and Italy has a higher intrinsic population density than the United States, so those were very poor models to follow. My position was always the most logical: wear mask/gloves in public by choice, keep your distance when possible, then if you get sick stay at home. Instead, we got "you work in a bank? fuck you, you're fired". How, exactly, did that help anyone?

Unity? What unity? There is no unity now, there has not been unity in almost 20 years, and there will not be unity in the foreseeable future. There must never be unity until Progressives/Socialists quit trying to burn down the United States and rebuild it as a Glorious People's Republic.

edit/add: incidentally, a new study of antibody test results in New York show that as many as 2.7 million people, at 13.5% of the population, might have contracted corona. This coincides with the California autopsies--the disease is highly infections but the mortality rate is extremely low *except* for those who are older or have underlying medical conditions.

See? There was never a reason to panic and force-close everything or restrict liberties....as I said all along.

[Ur Dead]

I want the unconstitutional abridgement of liberty of shooting the infected motherF*** in the head if they come near me. I want the constitution right to life.

Have you seen the recover to dead ratio???
80K have recovered
49K have DIED..
The 1 out of every 3 at least that didn't make it.

The other 737K.. we don't know where what side they going to be on.

That a mortality rate beyond what the So-called experts said.. they are outright lying. This disease kills pure and simple.
It making the 1918 Spanish flu look like a celebration.

[Gaius Octavius]

I don't think you can calculate mortality like that, Ur.

[Ur Dead]

Look at the numbers...
They show how many have recovered and how many have died....
You can not use the ones who are ongoing, there isn't a resolve to their condition.
Right now who has died as oppose to those recovered is at 38%.
That is the US numbers.
But the JHU site most probably have not counted all.
So is their site not to be trusted.. Shall we just throw some number up
in the air and say it's fact?
I am using only the recovered and death as shown because if you trust the site, those are FACTS.
Now for me it been almost 2 months since I went into lockdown.
The recovered goes up and the death also increases.
I compare the morning data and the evening data and the only
relief I find is when the recovered is much greater than the deaths for the day.
Only in a few months the world went into lockdown.
The whole planet got the bug at once.
That never happen in the 1918 pandemic.
I find this pandemic a great cause of fear.
I have this fear before. It was in 1962, I was 8 years old. Nuclear
war was on the plate. (Cuban missile crisis)
This is worst...

[peter]

It might be useful to reign it back in a bit Ur Dead; fear clouds thinking and tends to make people lash out in all directions, most of which are not appropriate.

Take for example "the infected mother******s". On Jenner's original discovery it might be the infection with the Sars-Covid strain that you survive that saves your life when you contact the one that you otherwise wouldn't have.

But I digress.

Yesterday I picked up my wife from her job in the local hospital. It was a beautiful (in effect summer's) day and as I drove to the front entrance I passed what, thirty employees in scrubs reclining on the grassy banks etc enjoying their lunch breaks (little evidence of any social distancing, but that is by the by). For weeks now the hospital (that has many thousands of beds I'd guess) has by my wifes report, been quiet to an unprecedented degree while preparations are carried out for the anticipated storm. Normal operations, many life effecting, have been cancelled and all of the standard activities of the hospital put on hold. In the corridor last week she passed two doctors talking and overhead that there were five Covid patients in the hospital. Five. Meanwhile people await life saving operations, and reports have it that the government is worried about the number of people that are not attending a hospital when faced with life threatening situations because of - they say - fear that they will contract Covid if they do so (I'd think it more likely that the message to stay away put out by the government has simply been too successful).

Now don't get me wrong, but this is all fucked up. Surely - surely - the thing to have done was once the Nightingale Hospital capacity was up to speed, was to isolate all Covid patients immediately into those facilities, and to continue the non-Covid work as normal in the standard ones, swelling or reducing the staffing of Covid facilities to meet the rising or falling demand on the ground? As we stand, the death toll resulting from the hiatus in activities of hospitals - the hidden death toll of the future if you like - threatens to every bit as bad as the toll from the disease itself.

[Avatar]

Republicans are literally trying to kill Democrats.

My, what unifying sentiments you express! I'm so inspired by your warm-and-fuzzy lack of divisiveness!

No different from "They are against the United States and its principles of independence..." I might add.

You guys are mirroring each other from opposite sides.

Uh, this is how it always is.

As with most pragmatic issues, there is a middle ground between dogmatic ideology and dumbass partisan hate-mongering.

Always.

--A

[peter]

And another thing- bullshit!

We are going to see the stuff in spades in the near future so atune your nose to sniffing it out the moment a politician opens his or her mouth. Take for example the much vaunted announcement pertaining to the Chancellor's instigation of a business protection loan scheme. Reports have it that the uptake has been pitiful - and is it any wonder! Accounts abound in respect of business owners approaching banks for said loans and being told either for this, that or the other reason, that they do not qualify. Others have indeed been offered the loans - at punitive rates of interest and on the condition that they put their homes up as collateral at this time of unprecedented uncertainty about the future. (And indeed, who can blame the Banks - they have businesses to run, shareholders to satisfy as well. It is not their job to provide free money for seeing business through this crisis.)

Similarly with the furlough scheme; scores of thousands simply don't qualify for the payments on the grounds of not having been employed long enough, or not being on the right type of contract, or this reason, that reason, or the other.

No - the rock solid truth is that if the shit hits the fan and you run into trouble as a fallout from all of this, there's a bloody good chance that you will find yourself out in the cold with only your own resources (or resourcefulness) to fall back on. And even if the Government wanted to bail out all of the millions of people and businesses that are going to go to the wall, it couldn't begin to afford to do so. So not to be a Cassandra - but we are right royally screwed. We will get through it - but there will be blood. Now is the winter of our discontent not made summer by this son of (New) York!

(Did you like that! )

[Avatar]

I think we all need to take a step back from our battle lines and stop this me-vs-you bullshit approach to a very serious debate. It's not an issue of values vs deaths. We're not two camps comprised of A) people who want others to die and B) people who want tyranny. That's just a cartoon, folks! After this is all over, we're going to see that the worst fears on either side were exaggerated. Overstating the case, painting the other side in black-and-white extremes, only gets in the way of striking an effective middle ground that take all concerns into consideration, seeking a balance of pros/cons.

I guess I'm the one arguing for unity, after all. Huh, ironic.

And as I said in the other thread, it is always thus, no matter the topic. Each side fights a caricature of the other, and then wonders why the other gets upset about it.

In more on-topic news, our own (much harsher than yours) 5-week lock-down will begin easing on the 1st, as they implement a phased localised approach based on regional levels and healthcare capacity etc.

--A

[TheFallen]

Look at the numbers...
They show how many have recovered and how many have died....
You can not use the ones who are ongoing, there isn't a resolve to their condition.
Right now who has died as oppose to those recovered is at 38%.
That is the US numbers.
But the JHU site most probably have not counted all.
So is their site not to be trusted.. Shall we just throw some number up
in the air and say it's fact?
I am using only the recovered and death as shown because if you trust the site, those are FACTS.

Yes, Ur Dead, those are facts... but JUST TWO OF the facts. And as Nano has said, those two ring-fenced facts are absolutely not the required facts that can be put together to work out any sort of realistic mortality rate.

Two things for you to consider, both similar:-

1. The vast majority of people who have been tested for COVID-19 are the ones who were already in hospital. That's where and why they got tested. Okay the make-up of those tested is slowly changing as more people in the "outside world" get tested, but at the moment it's massively predominantly those in hospital.

2. Therefore the actual numbers of those who either are infected with COVID-19 or indeed have been but have recovered are without doubt going to be astronomically higher that what gets caught and reported in the official figures. Literally vast numbers of such people have not been tested and will never end up getting tested - because they don't have severe symptoms and so never go near a hospital and so there's no urgent need to test them. They'll simply get left out of the figures and so not accounted for.

The *only* thing that you could vaguely extrapolate from the figures you're focussing on (and even then it's going to be highly inaccurate) is what's the percentage of people who've been hospitalised and who then end up dying there. That is a very different statistic from overall mortality rate.

[Gaius Octavius]

It is still a grim statistic because it suggests a fairly probable chance of dying if you have to be hospitalized.

[paulcoz]

Fear not, the doctor is in!

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavir ... d0254facac