Covid-19

[SoulBiter]

IHME - What reality do they live in? What they have is a VERY BEST case scenario where the curve goes down very quickly. Too many assumptions being made there to number them all. But we all know you hope for the best but plan for the worst. At the very least they should be in the middle. I agree "fuckwitted bozos" is a good moniker for them.

On the topic of allowing people to go back to work. For those that think this is a bad idea I have a few questions.

1. How long do you think we can continue in this manner before not just the economy but our entire social fabric unravels?

2. I have some friends that are VERY against the executive order to keep meat production going. What are the repercussions of our food supply chain being disrupted?

3. I have seen some pretty stupid stuff on FB recently. Do you think that this is some Govt conspiracy to do away a significant number of minorities and elderly. If so what evidence do you have to support this besides someone planting that thought in your head or your distrust for govt (be that one side or the other or both)

[wayfriend]

1. It's false to consider it a binary decision. We may (probably) have to change the way we work before we go back to work. But the key is doing it BEFORE we go back to work.

Secondly, there's enough money on this planet to feed, cloth, and shelter every single person for quite a long time, if people could part with it. But, the way economies work is, when there's a downturn, the powerful get to keep their money while the non-powerful are forced to lose it. This mindset, as long as it prevails, means people are NEEDLESSLY going broke. It doesn't have to be that way.

2. Technically, we don't need to eat meat.

3. When white governors of predominantly black states are pushing to reopen sooner than every expert says is wise, knowing that blacks will suffer more than others for it, it's not a conspiracy theory any longer.

The truth is plain and clear that re-opening too soon benefits the wealthy at the expense of the poor. Does it really matter whether it's blind greed or a desire to see poor people suffer?

Given that reopening too soon will create more havoc and devastation, generating so much fear that no one would be willing to work, the blind greed theory is only plausible when coupled with short-sighted stupidity.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

The only thing I hope doesn't change about my work is working from home--I haven't lost any income during this whole mess. In fact, I have saved money and even traded up jobs in the last 2 months. Stimulus money? *shrug* Maybe I might get some...someday...but I am not counting on it. Leibeschoen already got hers--she filed her own tax return last year and she hasn't changed bank accounts, so it hit direct deposit for her.

No one is reopening the economy specifically to hurt black people--that is simply ridiculous nonsense. In fact, that is Alex Jones-type conspiracy theory talk--you might as well say that it was engineered to kill them....but you would still have to blame the Chinese for that.

In case any of you have not thought of this...even though businesses were forced to close, no one is forcing businesses to reopen--if a business owner thinks it is a better idea to remain closed (or curbside-only for restaurants) then they may remain closed. The jack-booted thugs might have waved a gun in your face to make you close but they aren't going to wave a gun in your face to make you open.

Again, given that corona has been here longer and has likely spread more than we thought, that means the mortality rate is significantly lower than originally anticipated. That should take some of the fear out of reopening.

[SoulBiter]

The truth is plain and clear that re-opening too soon benefits the wealthy at the expense of the poor. Does it really matter whether it's blind greed or a desire to see poor people suffer?

Given that reopening too soon will create more havoc and devastation, generating so much fear that no one would be willing to work, the blind greed theory is only plausible when coupled with short-sighted stupidity.

I believe that is a false binary position as well.

1. Re-opening benefits everyone not just the wealthy. I believe the amount of wealth of the rich is about 5.6 trillion... feel free to correct me. I am not 100% sure of that number. It could be dated. But even if it were 10 trillion and you are feeding the world, it would run out very very quickly. What then?

2. Blind greed, desire to see people suffer. How do you sleep at night with all this negative stuff going on in your head? I don't see it that way at all. I believe its about desire to see people go back to work to make a living to feed their families. People dont want a hand out and I dont know about there, but here, people are protesting this lockdown and some are ignoring it completely.

3. Given that reopening too soon will create more havoc and devastation Geez man. Things aren't that bad. Get away from the 24 hour news cycle and get some sun. Go outside and have a social distanced beer or wine with friends. Talk about anything but politics and the virus. Have you looked at Sweden who has done much of nothing to combat the virus? So far, that canary in a coal mine is telling me the US and much of the world over-reacted. But time will tell.

4. Re-opening the economy to hurt black people. I just cant get behind that kind of fear mongering. If those governors were black and they made the same decision would it change your opinion? Just curious and to get you to think about that position and why you have that idea. I am not trying to state your position for you.

[sgt.null]

Wayfriend - people need to get back
To work to pay the bills. Your post is
Simply TDS Orange Man Bad conspiracy.

[peter]

I saw the suggestion made in an article that the cost of the recovery be footed by a ten percent one-off wealth tax. The writer said it would make sense since it would mean that the cost would be borne by those with money to afford it (mostly the older people) instead of the next generation who in the UK are likely to have shit anyway. This is probably absolutely true and pretty sensible as well - but it made my blood run cold. I could do it - just - but I'd be living in penury for the rest of my life: either that or loose my house!

[SoulBiter]

That would suc balls. I worked and saved for my the last 45 years to accumulate some wealth to enjoy in my retirement. It would be BS to have the Govt swoop in and take 10% of that. It would be especially bad if they included retirement accounts because I would have to liquidate funds to come up with, incurring even more tax.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

will cross-post in the "sexual violence" thread

California Governor Newsom's office (not him directly but his Administration) released seven high-risk sex offenders because they might catch corona while in prison. Orange County District Attorney Todd Spitzer said

They are doing everything they can to avoid detection by the parole officers assigned to monitor them so they can potentially commit additional sex offenses. These are not the kind of people who should be getting a break.

When--not if--these people commit a new offense are Democrats going to blame Newsom or are they going to blame Trump for "allowing" the virus in the first place? Also, who the fuck allowed sex offenders to be released? I don't care what disease they could have caught, you don't release sex offenders--as a group they have a repeat offense rate over 99%--they do not get better no matter how much counseling or therapy they might receive. Orange County would have been better off had they died of corona in prison.

[Zarathustra]

Secondly, there's enough money on this planet to feed, cloth, and shelter every single person for quite a long time, if people could part with it.

If you take money from the rich and give it to everyone else so that we do not have to reopen the economy and so everyone can stay at home, then who is going to provide all the food clothing and shelter? Where will that come from? Takes more than money. Some human beings actually have to produce that stuff. But why should people who work in those industries not benefit from the same money you were talking about giving everyone else? What incentive do they have to show up for work? Why should they have to risk their lives if we are going to give everyone all this for free? Are we going to force some people to farm and make clothing?

[Gaius Octavius]

Communists are so used to clay fruits and vegetables on display in potemkin villages that they forget that you have to grow real fruits and vegetables in order to consume them.

[peter]

Oddly, I think people work for more reasons than simply money; sure, that's the primary function (in our society) - to acquire the wherewithal to provide for yourself and family - but I suspect that even given the basic income for such provision, most people would by choice actually do something over and above this even for no further income (and that is the point). There is a need in us to 'contribute' - sure, not in all but in many. Put it this way; if you were given the choice today of recieving a basic income (a reasonable life giving one) but in return could do anything else of your choice that could be considered contributory to our society (for say 24 hours a week) would you take it? But without the motivation of money would we immediately begin to regress into drooling moronic couch slobs whose biggest energy expenditure for the day would be raising and lowering the TV remote? Some would for sure (and this would be their choice) but most - no, I don't think so.

[Zarathustra]

Put it this way; if you were given the choice today of recieving a basic income (a reasonable life giving one) but in return could do anything else of your choice that could be considered contributory to our society (for say 24 hours a week) would you take it?

How is that different from what we already do? You can already do anything of your choice that benefits society and get paid an income. You just described a job.

[peter]

Do you really do just what you'd choose to be doing to earn a living Z? If you do then you are a genuinely lucky man coz take it from me - most people don't.

[Zarathustra]

No, I am not currently doing what I would like to be doing, but that is my fault. Bad choices. The point is that everyone is free to pursue whatever career they want. Whether you succeed at it, or whether society actually finds it beneficial, is measured by your paycheck. You cannot just expect to be paid when you are the only one who finds your work beneficial.

I have a musician friend who wanted to vote for Bernie because of the promises of freebies. And he wanted those freebies for exactly the reasons you say here, he believed that as an artist, he benefitted society, so he deserved to be paid for his worth, regardless of whether the public liked his music. I would argue that if he was actually benefitting society, then he would not need a handout. Just because you are good at what you do does not mean that anyone else has to value it.

So, no, not everyone can do what they want to do and get paid for it. But that is only the first part of your proposal. Without a paycheck, how else would you measure your benefit to society?

[Gaius Octavius]

Paycheck is tied more to lobbying efforts and supply/demand than the degree of benefit one's job offers the world.

Doctors are of great benefit, but produce too many (where supply>demand), then I guarantee you they will earn less. A family doc is more important than a dermatologist, but guess who makes more money. The dermatologist will make at least twice that of the family doc.

It's all about comfort, lifestyle, luxury. It's all about how good you are at lobbying the powers that be.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

No, I am not currently doing what I would like to be doing, but that is my fault. Bad choices.

I made some bad choices here and there, too, but I am lucky in that I currently am doing what I would like to be doing...I just wish I could get paid a little more for doing it. That's what these Security+ and CCNA books are for--more certifications = more money. The thing about IT is this: even when department stores are closed, the corporate headquarters of those stores are not closed because most of those people--HR, Accounting/Finance, Legal, etc--can work from home...and IT is considered "essential".

California's "no bail" policy allowed a man to be arrested three times in one day for charges such as "auto theft", "possession of stolen property", "narcotics possession"--right now, in California unless you kill someone you can just commit a crime and get away with it. When you get your citation, you promise to show up for your court date--you are honest and so you will dutifully show up.

I am thankful we finally got past the "omg what are yesterday's numbers?" phase.

edit/add: Incidentally, the cities in the United States which are being hit the worst with corona.....those are "sanctuary" cities where all immigrants, especially illegal ones who may have questionable medical histories, are welcomed. Just saying.

[Ur Dead]

Well my nephew (in his 40's) who has a mild case of Covid-19 and was on the
mends suddenly developed COVID-19 Pneumonia yesterday. The hospital sent him home with I would guess the meds to combat it...
He been battling this for a month now.

This tells me that this is really a dangerous disease. Far more dangerous than we really though. If a mild case can linger and cause more effects,
than the enforcement emplaced may have to stay much longer.
Otherwise a new wave will infect others and the death rate may reach millions.

[TheFallen]

It will be more than mildly interesting to carefully monitor the rate of coronavirus spread, now that most Western nations are starting to ease down on lockdown regulation.

One significant area that has currently gone largely unaddressed in the very recent easing of restriction discussions is allowing incoming foreign nationals. Not just immigrants, but also business travellers and tourists. For example, if I were Spain or Italy or indeed any First World nation, I would not be at all comfortable letting in anyone from say Russia currently - even if only for a brief business visit.

For info, Russia is currently rocketing up the macabre COVID-19 hit parade charts - and that's only with a view to the numbers that Putin is prepared to sanction the release of...

Separately - and this is prior to the effect of harsh imposed social distancing regulations becoming somewhat relaxed (as they will shortly) - I think we can safely project in excess of 2 million identified US cases and in excess of 90,000 US attributed deaths before the end of May (that's a further 21,000+ US COVID-19 deaths in the next 25 or so days).

But wait! In direct contrast to my latter projection, the godlike geniuses at the IHME are currently and confidently stating that there will now only be less than 4,000 new US attributed coronavirus deaths between now and the 4th of August (i.e. the next three months - so the brainboxes are projecting less than a quarter of what I reckon and (what's more) in more than three times the timescale). Great news! Let's immediately have a partaaaay!

I wonder who'll turn out to have been more accurate...

[Ur Dead]

I bet money on TF...

[wayfriend]

One significant area that has currently gone largely unaddressed in the very recent easing of restriction discussions is allowing incoming foreign nationals.

With the populist nationalists being in control, I suspect we will see a lot of...

"The pandemic is getting better. Go back to work."

at the same time as

"We can't let these foreigners in while the pandemic is so bad."