US Presidental Elections 2008

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Immanentizing The Eschaton
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Post by Avatar »

Hey, where's Finn? (Another member who's a Brit now living in Oz.)

I must say, I've always thought that the British system was relatively low-key. One day they're all talking, next day they've got a new Prime Minister. You barely notice in fact. (Actually, same with the Aussies really.)

Anyway, I absolutely agree with that last point, and that's the real reason I'd like to see a democrat win there, either of them. And why I'm disappointed that the pubs have managed to put up a damn good case on the surface of it.

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Brasidas
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Post by Brasidas »

All the many many many newscasts that even we here in Oz have to put up with about the election are about 85% on the battle between Barack and Hillary; that's what has really caught the imagination over here. McCain will be mentioned almost sheepishly at the end of the piece.
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True, but then McCain is largely a done deal. The Hillary/Obama question is still open.

When will we know who's in btw?

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Post by Cail »

The Democratic convention is in August. It could well go on that long.
"There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences." - PJ O'Rourke
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"Men and women range themselves into three classes or orders of intelligence; you can tell the lowest class by their habit of always talking about persons; the next by the fact that their habit is always to converse about things; the highest by their preference for the discussion of ideas." - Charles Stewart
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"I believe there are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations." - James Madison
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Immanentizing The Eschaton
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Post by Avatar »

Well, Hillary insists she's still in with a chance, not much likelihood of her quitting so far it looks like.

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Post by Plissken »

From what I've heard, the Super Delegates have agreed to announce their intentions after the Primaries are over -- so we should have a candidate a couple of months before the Convention.
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Post by A Gunslinger »

It'll soon be over. I am starting to think that given her last two tough weeks, and the direction of polling, AND the drip, drip, drip of superdelegates FOR Obama and her's abandoning her (he has +69 to her -2 since 2/5), I think that end of may is a distict possibility, if not before.

I think if she sees PA moving toward Obama, she'd be smart to get out BEFORE the vote is cast...(dit): going out on HER OWN terms, rather than out with a groan/whimper.
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Post by Avatar »

That would certainly be a face saving move. Interested to see. (What does it take to run on an independant ticket?)

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Post by Cail »

No way she loses PA.
"There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences." - PJ O'Rourke
_____________
"Men and women range themselves into three classes or orders of intelligence; you can tell the lowest class by their habit of always talking about persons; the next by the fact that their habit is always to converse about things; the highest by their preference for the discussion of ideas." - Charles Stewart
_____________
"I believe there are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations." - James Madison
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Post by A Gunslinger »

She can win and still LOSE...you know that. If he finishes within 10 it will (fairly or not) given the fact that she was 25-30 ahead just 2 weeks ago.

It's about perception.
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Post by Cail »

Not really. It's about maintaining the legitimacy of her campaign, which a win gives her.
"There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences." - PJ O'Rourke
_____________
"Men and women range themselves into three classes or orders of intelligence; you can tell the lowest class by their habit of always talking about persons; the next by the fact that their habit is always to converse about things; the highest by their preference for the discussion of ideas." - Charles Stewart
_____________
"I believe there are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations." - James Madison
_____________
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Post by Cleburne »

Hi i know I am not from the states and dont have a vote but I watched a good bit of the coverage on tv and radio over here in G.B and I find it all quiet interesting . At the begining of the year I would have supported Hillary but Barack Obama has sold himself well. I also heard that Hillary is really struggling for money and is starting to owe money big time.
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Welcome to the 'Tank Cleburne...don't worry, not verybody here is American...it just feels like it sometimes. ;)

Yeah...money is a big factor in who gets to be president. Or party nominee anyway.

Cail, you saying that if she wins PA, it's enough justification to show that she's still in the race as it were?

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Post by Cail »

Absolutely. She's won all the big states, and that makes for a compelling argument for her getting the nomination.
"There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences." - PJ O'Rourke
_____________
"Men and women range themselves into three classes or orders of intelligence; you can tell the lowest class by their habit of always talking about persons; the next by the fact that their habit is always to converse about things; the highest by their preference for the discussion of ideas." - Charles Stewart
_____________
"I believe there are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations." - James Madison
_____________
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Post by Avatar »

But it still comes down to who got the most votes, right? (Or does it?)

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Post by Cail »

Not really. This is the irony of the way the Democrats pick their nominee (given the amount of griping they did in 2000 and 2004). Neither candidate can get the "required" number of delegates to win the nomination. One candidate (likely Obama) will have a simple majority, with both candidates having some number of Superdelegates. Technically, if neither of them relents and resigns from the race, the delegates at the convention can pick whomever they want as their nominee.

IOW, the popular vote doesn't mean squat.

Hil can make a compelling case that she won all the major battleground states, and ergo has a better shot of winning the general election. Obama will counter that he won more delegates. They're both right.

No matter which one wins the nomination, there are going to be a lot of very unhappy Democrats.
"There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences." - PJ O'Rourke
_____________
"Men and women range themselves into three classes or orders of intelligence; you can tell the lowest class by their habit of always talking about persons; the next by the fact that their habit is always to converse about things; the highest by their preference for the discussion of ideas." - Charles Stewart
_____________
"I believe there are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations." - James Madison
_____________
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Post by Avatar »

Cail wrote:IOW, the popular vote doesn't mean squat.
As so often appears the case in American politics. :lol: That's crazy...why doesn't the party just pick its nominee privately then? What a waste of time and money.

(Over here, the president of each political party is automatically the nominee of that party in presidential elections. Although, in theory, the party can select (internally) another candidate if they want, it doesn't really happen that way in practice.)

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Post by Cail »

It's to give the illusion of choice.
"There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences." - PJ O'Rourke
_____________
"Men and women range themselves into three classes or orders of intelligence; you can tell the lowest class by their habit of always talking about persons; the next by the fact that their habit is always to converse about things; the highest by their preference for the discussion of ideas." - Charles Stewart
_____________
"I believe there are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations." - James Madison
_____________
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Post by Avatar »

Democracy is a lie!

(:D Yes, I know, you're a republic. (Actually, are you really? I mean, we're a republic. Says it right on our constitution: The Constitution of the Republic of South Africa. And our system is quite different. Interesting.)

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Post by Damelon »

We are a republic, Av.

If we were a democracy, in the strict sense of the word, all us citizens would be members of congress. :)
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