French Government Dissolved

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Hashi Lebwohl
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French Government Dissolved

Post by Hashi Lebwohl »

The article via AJA may be found here. This is an important enough story to warrant its own thread--it isn't every day that a First World government gets dissolved.
France was thrown into fresh political turmoil Monday after President Francois Hollande dissolved the government amid feuding among cabinet members over the country’s economic austerity measures.

Prime Minister Manuel Valls offered up his Socialist government's resignation after accusing the outspoken economy minister of crossing a line by issuing a blunt criticism of his policies and urging “just and sane” resistance to German-inspired austerity.

Hollande accepted the resignation and ordered Valls to form a new government by Tuesday.

It comes amid growing discontent with the French government’s economic measures.

France has had effectively no economic growth this year, unemployment is hovering around 10 percent, and Hollande's approval ratings are in the teens. The country is under pressure from the European Union to get its finances in order, but Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg has questioned whether the austerity pressed by the EU will kick start French growth.

Hollande's promises to cut taxes and make it easier for businesses to open and operate have stalled, meanwhile, in large part because of the divisions among Socialists.

"A major change in our economy policy" was needed, Montebourg said in comments that come just days after Hollande had expressly said there would be no change in direction.

The minister's comments angered the Socialist leadership, which said Montebourg's job was to support the government, not criticize it from within.

"He's not there to start a debate but to put France back on the path of growth," Carlos Da Silva, the Socialist Party spokesman, told Le Figaro newspaper.

"With half of the presidential mandate already gone, it doesn't bode well for the ability of the president, or whatever government he chooses, to take key decisions," said former Prime Minister Francois Fillon, one of handful of hopefuls for the conservative ticket in the 2017 presidential election.

Montebourg's criticism of austerity — and his pointed remarks about German Chancellor Angela Merkel — have rankled before.

In an interview last week, after Germany's economy also showed signs of stagnation, Montebourg said France's neighbor had been "trapped by the policy of austerity." He went on to say "when I say Germany, I mean the German right-wing that supports Angela Merkel. It's not France's job to align itself to the ideological axioms of Germany's right-wing."
Their unemployment and budgetary/fiscal problems notwithstanding, what I see here is a resurgence of the old dislike between France and Germany breathing new life. Yes, it is true that the austerity measures currently working their way through the EU are being spearheaded by Germany but the feelings being expressed by Montebourg aren't really economically-based as much as they are politically and nationally based.

The French Socialist Party isn't going to like my advice much but if they want to improve their economy then they are going to have to consider cutting government spending and cutting corporate tax rates to improve the environment for business, even if the cuts will have a relatively short lifespan (say, 5 years).

Most politicians, though, need to quit thinking that they can fix problem in only 3 to 5 years; most major problems which need to be fixed took longer than that to become major problems so they won't be solved in a shorter time span without causing more problems than the solutions solve.
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Re: French Government Dissolved

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Hashi Lebwohl wrote:Yes, it is true that the austerity measures currently working their way through the EU are being spearheaded by Germany but the feelings being expressed by Montebourg aren't really economically-based as much as they are politically and nationally based..
Heh...they may not be economically-based/motivated in HIS mind.
But: they surely are economically true. Austerity took a bad euro-situation and made it even worse. It made it so bad that the major economy with some strength...Germany...is starting to pay for pushing it, even if they won't admit it yet.

I advise France to begin by abandoning the Euro.
I advise every country to abandon the Euro.
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Post by Hashi Lebwohl »

The long-term end result of all the current mess will definitely be the end of the Euro, but this might take another 10 years or so.
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Agreed. And it's not going to be easy to undo everything either.

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Post by Ur Dead »

The French had a government????!!!!
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Post by TheFallen »

Shades of my Is the great Euro Federalist experiment about to fail? thread.

Over the last 6 years, my combined delight and relief at the UK having never signed up to the Euro has done nothing but increase exponentially. As a direct result of not being a member, our own economy is showing still early but encouraging growth trends. We're tracking at 3.1%-ish growth for this year and our economy has (finally) surpassed pre-crash levels.

I never understood even conceptually how an allegedly unifying "one size fits all" currency was ever going to be maintainable across such a disparate group of economies and cultures as are to be found within the Euro zone. With France at last seemingly reverting to self-interested type - it's taken a long long while and frankly I don't now blame them for doing so - to me all that remains of this flawed from the get-go experiment is how long Germany as a nation will continue to shoulder the burden of propping up all the multitude of sick nations in the Euro zone. There's going to come a point - and I expect sooner, rather than later - when the weight of such a millstone is going to prove literally unsupportable.

Interesting times ahead, I reckon. Wonder what - if anything - this will do to the European Union (something else of which I remain unconvinced about the necessity).
Newsflash: the word "irony" doesn't mean "a bit like iron" :roll:

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Post by Hashi Lebwohl »

TheFallen wrote: how long Germany as a nation will continue to shoulder the burden of propping up all the multitude of sick nations in the Euro zone. There's going to come a point - and I expect sooner, rather than later - when the weight of such a millstone is going to prove literally unsupportable.
All it will take is for Greece, Portugal, and Spain to continue to have problems and for France's problems to get worse. It will happen when the German government realizes that no one will be able to do anything to stop them when they decide to pull out and go back to Deutschemarks (which isn't actually what the Germans called their currency).
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Post by Vraith »

Hashi Lebwohl wrote:
TheFallen wrote: how long Germany as a nation will continue to shoulder the burden of propping up all the multitude of sick nations in the Euro zone. There's going to come a point - and I expect sooner, rather than later - when the weight of such a millstone is going to prove literally unsupportable.
All it will take is for Greece, Portugal, and Spain to continue to have problems and for France's problems to get worse. It will happen when the German government realizes that no one will be able to do anything to stop them when they decide to pull out and go back to Deutschemarks (which isn't actually what the Germans called their currency).
Heh...it ain't that simple...in fact that's counterproductive for Germany.
cuz the only reason Germany is doing so well is cuz they're eating Greece, Portugal, and Spain.
Cuz let's be clear...I don't know about the others so much, cuz I haven't tracked them or looked into details...
But the ONLY reason Greece collapsed as it did is BECAUSE the Euro existed and BECAUSE the Euro-financial sector choked the fucking life out of them.
It had little-to-nothing to do with gov't spending on social welfare programs.
Y'all could look it up and do the fucking math...it isn't even hard math...but will you? I doubt it.

H-Marks were the German currency and name. You can argue about the prefix if you like. But Marks are what they were. [Deutsch was added, for outsiders, to separate in word as well as deed the Reich prefix for the previous mark.]
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Post by TheFallen »

Vraith wrote:Heh...it ain't that simple...in fact that's counterproductive for Germany.
cuz the only reason Germany is doing so well is cuz they're eating Greece, Portugal, and Spain.
Well, kinda sorta in my understanding. Yes it's true that Germany (and previously France as well) in its guise as Proto-President of Europe and Führer of Federalism currently has all sorts of strangleholds on various failing Southern European economies that are feckless members of the Euro Empire. But I don't see the benefit that this brings Germany, because it's at least in part the German taxpayer that's funding the "sick men" of Europe - and let's not forget that the German taxpayer is still paying the costs of unification with the old East Germany - and this millstone of funding is holding back the German economy.

Okay, so Greece, Portugal and Spain have years and years of long-term indebtedness to the European Central Bank (aka Germany, really) - but only for as long as their electorates are prepared to labour under the stark strictures of a Brussels/Berlin originated edict of austerity. I can honestly see a time coming where one of these (probably Greece) refuses to play any more, leaves the Euro and welshes on its debts in an effort to return to self-governance. And if one nation does this, it'll be like dominoes - others will follow.

I suppose that a hardened cynic might say that this whole imposition of the Euro is Germany's latest attempt at imperialism and hegemony, except carried out this time via financial rather than militaristic means - if that's the case, then maybe the currency should be named the ReichsEuro... heh. But this again begs the question - what's the point? What's the point of de facto "owning" Greece? Or Portugal? Or Spain? Economically certainly not much for the foreseeable future - such a strategy would be dilutative.

As I've said upthread, I'm so damn relieved that the UK isn't part of the Euro scheme, even if we do still contribute (unfortunately) in a lesser way to propping the currency up. Here's a couple of GDP growth graphs comparing Germany and the UK over recent years:-

Image

The UK would not be turning its back upon recession anywhere near as fast as it is, were it embedded within the Euro currency mechanism.

As a side note, this particular site is excellent for providing dispassionate and comparative snapshots, regularly measured against various sensible indicators, of individual world economies. Take a look and see how you're doing.
Vraith wrote:Cuz let's be clear...I don't know about the others so much, cuz I haven't tracked them or looked into details...
But the ONLY reason Greece collapsed as it did is BECAUSE the Euro existed and BECAUSE the Euro-financial sector choked the fucking life out of them. It had little-to-nothing to do with gov't spending on social welfare programs.
That's pretty much true. Well, as I see it, the primum mobile was European Federalist zeal to get as many nations as possible to join the merry Euro band, which meant that they were prepared almost entirely to turn a blind eye to the suitability - both economic, political and cultural - of such nations to do so. Greece undoubtedly did overspend on social programs. This, combined with an ineptitude in collecting tax revenues had gone on in the Greek economy for years - but it was (just) locally manageable as long as the Greeks had full control over their own fiat currency - sure, at a cost of galloping but manageable inflation. However, once Greece had been welcomed with open arms into the Euro club, with all sorts of promises of benign help and support, it was only a matter of time, of hitting one bump in the road, before the massive and irreconcilable cracks in mass Euro membership were going to appear...

...and here we are. Be careful what you wish for.
Newsflash: the word "irony" doesn't mean "a bit like iron" :roll:

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Post by Hashi Lebwohl »

No one said anything about Greece's problems being caused by government spending; however, its current and ongoing debt crisis is definitely related to previous Greek Administrations finding creative ways to under-report their budget defecits. Now, the austerity programs have cut payments to public pensions, thus limiting government spending, and cutting government spending is always a good thing (in the vast majority of cases), but I don't think it was rampant government spending which caused the problems in the first place. Being too generous with social programs? Yes, that was part of the problem just like in Detroit.

My advice is that governments need to learn the consequences of what happens when policymakers enact really stupid policies. Don't bail out a government or a corporation--if they make poor choices then let them endure the consequences for all to see.
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