November 9th, 1989

[Cybrweez]

I'm in History Book Club, and just saw that there's a new book out (Oct 27th), 1989 by Victor Sebestyen. Now I'm tempted to get it.

[finn]

Just a numerical quirk, but most places put the day first and the month second making the 9th of November, 9/11 for most of us!

[Khazduk]

The US way of dating things just don't make sense! (Oh no, he's going for the Chewbacca defence!) Why on earth would you go month-date-year? It's quite more logical to go either day-month-year (from smaller unit to larger) or year-month-day (from larger unit to smaller). Or am I missing something here? But oh, now I remember! Malik taught us a while back that the US invented life, universe and everything. So I guess they must've gotten this one right too. But then he told us that the US doesn't exist, because it is not a continous entity? That would be a reasonable explanation as to why they can't date things properly either.

Flippant and stupid remarks, sorry.

But as for the OT goes: a momentous occasion, yes. Though from a historian's PoV I honestly think we haven't even begun to see the actual, lasting consequences of it, and probably won't for another 30, 50 or 100 years. All of the "short 20th century" (1914-1989) was a consequence of the build-up of internal stress that the "long 19th" (1789-1914) had created, with the shift away from l'ancien régime and towards intensified industrialization and all dat shiet. 1989 (or maybe you wanna date it to 1991) was the end of another era. Evaluating its true consequences will take another 100 years though.

[Cail]

But as for the OT goes: a momentous occasion, yes. Though from a historian's PoV I honestly think we haven't even begun to see the actual, lasting consequences of it, and probably won't for another 30, 50 or 100 years. All of the "short 20th century" (1914-1989) was a consequence of the build-up of internal stress that the "long 19th" (1789-1914) had created, with the shift away from l'ancien régime and towards intensified industrialization and all dat shiet. 1989 (or maybe you wanna date it to 1991) was the end of another era. Evaluating its true consequences will take another 100 years though.

I agree, and I think the "hangover" lasted 'till '91 too.

I think we're still seeing and feeling aftershocks from the fall of the Soviet Union, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Putin (or another former KGB ideologue) make a truly concerted effort to "bring back the good 'ol days".

[Avatar]

I don't think it'll ever happen in quite the same way though. But certainly as a new form of union/confederacy perhaps. Certainly Russia seems keen to re-enter the stage of world politics as a power in the region, and perhaps even the world.

--A

[finn]

I think you are bang on there Cail, there is a lot of reminiscing going on in Russia as the freedoms have come with their own problems and many do not see that their own circumstances are improved. I am heading to Russia for a holiday in January (yeah cold!) and I've been reading up recently. They started a process of de-Stalinisation after his death and tried to eradicate any mention of Stalin: Stalingrad for example is now Volgagrad and doesn't even take internatinal flights. There are people though who are starting to resurrect the memory of Stalin as a great Russian Leader and harking back to him making Russia a power in the world.

I think some of this is the ever present "good old days" and "grumpy old men" type phenomena that I'd guess every culture has. In Russia this seems to be what is happening rather than a a neo nazi type of cult figure worship; many of these people are older generation and not as radical as you'd think. But much of the advent of "freedom" with its youth culture, mafia, drugs, aids, prostitution and all that has replaced the KGB man on the corner, seems a poor trade to many and it's not hard to see their point. The underlying theme tho' is that there is a vocal sector of Russians (possibly directedto be) that are advocating a firm hand and strong government control.

Putin is clearly a man from the past with an eye for the future. He was a rising star under the Soviet and is the main man (whoever is put up front as the puppet leader). I think it clear he wants a strong Soviet Superpower back and is moving towards a rebuild of local influence. However he is also aware of the changes in the world and the potential for conflict over resources a lot of which he has tacit control over. He has a military that is tired and under resourced, but he's spending billions to revamp it, he's towed a hard line (some would probably rightly say too hard) in the caucuses and he's steadied the ship by demonstrating that just upping and declaring independence, is simply not on. He's also stopped the economy from wobbling and it has improved steadily since 2000 tho' still with a higher proportion of poor than we'd accept in the West.

Overall he seems to have been the right man at the right time to re-establish Russia as a major power. He has been able (by luck or judgement) to tap into the Russian's public disenchantment with the costs of freedom and this has allowed him space to put in measures that have been harsh but have resulted in stability unknown since perestroika and Glasnost. He has also been aided by being able to hide some of the more harsh tactics behind the smokescreen of what has happened in the superpower arena with both China and the US drawing enough criticism over human rights to make Russia's abuses seem less stringent by comparison.

What Putin has in mind for the future is anyone's guess. For sure he intends to be strong as his military expenditure shows. However, it could be argued that a strong army discourages incursions into Russia's main wealth of fossil fuels and minerals. I'd guess tho' that a return to a USSR type of regime is unlikely as many wealthy and thus powerful Russians are enjoying the freer trade conditions and the ability to come and go to enjoy their wealth. Many of these people are basicaly mobsters both governments (ex KGB) and private (Black Market/Mafia) and their support is required to maintain power, at least for now.

Putin has done a remarkable job so far, tho' I think Russia is a work in progress for him. I don't see the same empire building as under Khrushchev: it would be difficult now with the European Union to annex the Czech Republic, Poland and the rest of the Eastern Bloc countries. However, the cost of ruling more territory can be great especially if there is little to be gained in intrinsic wealth. I do see tho' a strong Russia emerging within the next 5 years that will be able to stand toe to toe with the US or China if it needs to, not for territory or idealism tho' but to be able to stand firm at the world's negotiating table.

History may well write up the fall of the wall as the key event in the renaissance of Russia and the pivotal point in it becoming a modern world power....... a revolution no less significant than October 1917.

I'm heading to St Petersberg, Moscow, Irkutsk and Lake Baikel by train and apart from seeing the sights and some of the best collections of artworks in the world and of course the fantastic winter scenery, I am really looking forward to the train ride and just hanging out with regular Russians, which there is a good chance of due to the time of travel being low season for tourists...... now to figure out the cyrillic alphabet and basis phrases!!!!!

[Cail]

There are tours you can take of old Soviet military installations (including missile silos).

I like pictures.

[finn]

I am down to do the war museum and I'm also going to the changing of the guard for the Unknown Soldier.... they thought that a bit odd at the travel company, but its one of the few places where the pomp is still a part of the whole thing.... in Oz they're talking about replacing a bugle with a tape!

Photos is a big challenge and I'm taking a couple of cameras and working out how to heat the bags I carry them around in as batteries lose charge in the temps I'm likley to find myself in! I'll probably put them up on a myspace I set up after my last big trip that'll probably be Feb '10 sometime.. I'll try to remember to send you a link.

[ParanoiA]

Very interesting stuff finn. Your post got me reading some Russian history, thanks.

[Cybrweez]

Vacation, Russia, January. You better hope there's global warming.

[finn]

Just hoping for carriage warming, but I'm also in Chicago for Christmas.....just bought some Sorels this week in fact!

[The Dreaming]

I will say this, and it may sound more than a little controversial, but I think the fall of the Soviet Union was the most momentous event of the 20th century.

It's really easy to look back with the wisdom of hindsight and criticize decisions made then.

I still think Moon Landing and Eradication of Smallpox trump it -

But #3 easy.

[Cail]

Interesting. I think I'd put smallpox at #2, and the Moon landing at #3 or 4.

While the Moon landing was cool, other than Tang and Velcro, it really hasn't affected my life much.

[Avatar]

Yeah, but it was also the start of something that's end lies in the unimaginably distant future, if you know what I mean. I'll say it comes number 2 after the moon landing...smallpox...pretty awesome, but millions continue to die yearly of diseases, famine etc.

And I'm not sure if it should be measured on the same scale anyway....maybe, maybe not.

--A

[High Lord Tolkien]

I question the sanity of anyone who doubts that the Moon landing was the most momentous event in human history.

[Cail]

I question the sanity of anyone who doubts that the Moon landing was the most momentous event in human history.

Yup. It was certainly cool, but pales in comparison to freeing millions of people from an oppressive and murderous government.

And, you know, the constant threat of nuclear annihilation.

[Avatar]

I have a private theory that it was the space race that used up the energy that might otherwise have been expended in nuclear annihalation.

--A

[Cail]

Possible.

[Avatar]

Of course, the reason for the space race was to be able to annihilate the enemy from orbit, but by the time they got there they decided it was probably a bad idea all round.

--A

[The Dreaming]

The fact that the moon landing has had so few consequences so far is actually pretty damn depressing. Of all the things that happened in the 20th century, its going to be the only one that *really* matters in 1000 years. The destruction of communism will be something history geeks talk about, but the moon landing is going to be as huge as the birth of Christ. (In a thousand years, you can quote me.) Eradication of smallpox is a close second, not only because of what it directly accomplished (itself having already saved preposterous numbers of lives) but for what it represents to humanity. We really can coordinate something as massive as an eradication campaign across all of humanity. It's damn hopeful. It makes me think that it's possible that humanity may actually be able to live in harmony someday. I get that warm fuzzy hopeful feeling whenever I think about it. All of the worlds governments banded together to destroy something that was a blight to humanity. There really may be hope for us yet!