Kevin's Watch

It seems possible to me that given the tremendous distances involved that though the Milky Way may be populated with other intelligent life, Sol may be located in a fairly barren (in terms of civilizations) region of the galaxy. Traveling to the nearest star is nearly incomprehensible to us. Just for the sake of argument let imagine that our galaxy has 1,000 human type planets but that nearly all of them are located on the other side of the Milky Way. How would even an ultra advanced civilization reach us with signals let alone visit physically? My point is that there is no way for us to know one way or another so go nuts and dream of green skinned women. Though they'll probably never show up on your door step, they might be out there somewhere.

The problem is with the signals they send. Regardless of what frequency they use, we are limited in picking it up because we would have to comb the sky, star by star, and be there at the right time, and have a sufficient level of sensitivity to even pick it up.
Call me too pessimistic, but I have strong doubts we will ever hear a signal. What's more likely is an alien civilisation sending millions of probes, each to a separate star system (like the Amnion) which transmit a signal. Now, statistically, a civilisation should have done that. Where are the probes now? Did one miss us?

No.They'd be here by now. There is a deep and probably meaningful scientific reason for my saying that, but I don't have the wherewithall to write it yet!

We've been probed We're just too boring and violent to be bothered with

Here is a pretty good example of how I view things. Imagine the earth. Only two humans populate it; one male and one female and they possess the technological equivalent of the middle ages. He lives in a shack on the side of a mountain in Oregon, USA and she lives in a tent near Brixton, England. Each suspects that there must be others like themselves and each would like to find the other. Given the land area of the earth and the oceans that separate them it is extremely unlikely that the man would be able to accurately choose the proper direction and distance from his home to that of the woman. If in an unbelievable stroke of luck the man managed to guess correctly and was able to cross the ocean to England, he would still have the rather daunting task of finding one, woman who may or may not even exist, somewhere in England’s vast terrain. The only assistance the man has is his ability to shout, “Is anyone here?” at the top of his lungs. These people actually live on the same planet and it would be a statistical miracle if they found each other. I have no problem at all with the idea that other races that may exist in our own galaxy let alone the entire universe have not as yet found us. IMHO.

edinburghemma wrote:No.They'd be here by now. There is a deep and probably meaningful scientific reason for my saying that, but I don't have the wherewithall to write it yet!

I know what you mean, Emma. That's why I'm beginning to have my doubts.
Tom, that post is very well written (you should be a writer! ). I agree with you there. However, it becomes complicated when you consider that a significant number of alien civilisations exist. Then that raises the odds that one would send a signal to us. To explain, I'll use your analogy. Say there are a thousand men and women. Then it is very likely one of them will make contact with another. Same with our galaxy. If life is common, then we'd have heard of a signal by now.

Ur-Vile wrote:However, it becomes complicated when you consider that a significant number of alien civilisations exist.

Eh? You speak as though it was a fact that a significant number exist. Maybe few. Maybe none.

Ur-Vile wrote:Then that raises the odds that one would send a signal to us. To explain, I'll use your analogy. Say there are a thousand men and women. Then it is very likely one of them will make contact with another. Same with our galaxy. If life is common, then we'd have heard of a signal by now.

But life may not be common. The incomprehensible number of stars in the universe is not proof that life is common out there. Maybe. Maybe not. It's also conceivable that we're the first! We might be the most intelligent and advanced beings anywhere. Somebody has to be! Maybe there's millions of other planets with non-intelligent life on them.

To me, at least, not believing that there could be life on other planets, in this incredibly vast universe, is akin to the belief that your life on earth is simply a creation of your own imagining and that all will cease when your eyes close for the last time. Incredibly selfish thinking...

Fist and Faith wrote:

Ur-Vile wrote:However, it becomes complicated when you consider that a significant number of alien civilisations exist.

Eh? You speak as though it was a fact that a significant number exist. Maybe few. Maybe none.

You misunderstand me, Fist. What I am getting at is that if you accept that there are plenty of alien civilisations then must also accept that the odds of them sendind a message/probe is raised. Thus, the fact that we haven't heard from them yet suggests that: they can't communicate with us; none exist; or they have destroyed themselves.

The second thing you quoted is simply a reference to the Drake-Sagan equation; so many stars like our own, statistically life must have evolved somewhere. However, rolling a thousand six-sided dice and all getting '6s' is pretty low odds, and probably won't occur. My point is that the 'dice' for life occuring are so stastically 'low' that maybe it is a fluke thing and we are the only intelligent life. Rolling a thousand dice (evolutionary development) a million times (habitable systems) will not probably not turn up all '6s' (lintelligent life).

Gotcha. Knowing you, I didn't actually think you were saying what I thought you were saying.

I really like the dice analogy too!

IMHO the probability of life existing somewhere is very great. However, with the distances involved, it would be practically impossible to find any of them.

Since Einstein found a formidable barrier to interstellar space travel, we are forced to listen to the stars for signs of life. I read somewhere that at distances over 500 ly, it would be impossible to distinguish artificial signals from natural - they would blend into the background noise. So I think that it's unlikely, in my lifetime, that we'll find anything. Even given optimistic assumptions of how widespread life is, it would be hard to find anything that close.

I had an interesting chat with my father about this topic at Christmas, and he says no (he's a specialist in such things), but he is too clever and erudite for me to repeat his argument here in the wrong terms, just now. I shall consult him further. Until I spoke with him I was convinced that there had to be. Now I definitely don't believe there to be.

Must be a damn well convincing argument. Such a cliffhanger--waiting for it and all! *cries impatiently*

Fist and Faith wrote:Gotcha. Knowing you, I didn't actually think you were saying what I thought you were saying.

I really like the dice analogy too!

Thankyou, Fist!

Really! Come on, edinburghemma!!! I won't be able to sleep tonight!!

Sorry Fist, I have e-mailed him, so I can just paste his reply here (with permission of course!)...

My gut feeling is that there isn't any intelligent life out there, at least not in our galaxy. However, that gut feeling is quite uneducated, when you consider that there are 100 billion galaxies with 100 billion stars and about 20 billion years or so of their history to hide life in! Still, we haven't heard a thing thus far. (The best exploration of the fictional ramifications is The
Sparrow - incredible story about hearing music from outer space).

I think it's even less likely though that there are time travelers or that time travel is possible - someone would have visited by now!

srtrout wrote:Still, we haven't heard a thing thus far.

Maybe that's because there are 100 billion galaxies with 100 billion stars, eh? I mean, the size of the universe is unfathomable--really is. I can't see how even the most unimaginably advanced civilization could find us. That's how spread out we are. Maybe the other civilizations are just like us, yes? Maybe they're just getting out into space and beginning to explore. They might be evolving right alongside us. I think in such a big universe there's got to be more than one star and more than one rock at the right place, at the right time, to foster life. We can't be the only case.

Lord Foul wrote:

srtrout wrote:Still, we haven't heard a thing thus far.

Maybe that's because there are 100 billion galaxies with 100 billion stars, eh? I mean, the size of the universe is unfathomable--really is. I can't see how even the most unimaginably advanced civilization could find us. That's how spread out we are. Maybe the other civilizations are just like us, yes? Maybe they're just getting out into space and beginning to explore. They might be evolving right alongside us. I think in such a big universe there's got to be more than one star and more than one rock at the right place, at the right time, to foster life. We can't be the only case.

My feelings exactly....

I completely agree with, LF. The vastness of our universe is nearly beyond our comprehension. The idea that any other species that may exist might be at a similar technological level and just as unable to reach out to another world is easy for me to believe.