Covid-19

[Hashi Lebwohl]

The San Francisco police chief has issued an order forbidding officer from wearing "thin blue line" masks while on the job; the rationale used is that the "thin blue line" is "offensive" and "divisive". My advice: officers should wear the masks anyway in defiance of the chief. What is he going to do, fire them or suspend them? Their union rep might have something to say about that (most departments are unionized or have officer advocates keeping management in check).

I am tired of all the "all good citizens must comply" orders. If you are a business and you want to reopen, then reopen; if you want to reopen only partially, then do that. If you are a customer and you don't feel comfortable going into a store then don't go in--most stores have adopted "order online" and/or "runner" programs where they will grab your items and bring them to you. If you are an employee who was getting those fat unemployment checks but now you face the prospect of having nothing if you don't resume the job your employer is offering, then quit and try to keep getting unemployment or go get a different job. If you want to work but your employer is not offering you masks/gloves then quit being such a helpless whiner and get your own; alternatively, quit and go to work for an employer who is not an asshole.

They say adversity does not temper or create personal character but instead reveals it. Corona has revealed the character of most Americans, and what is has revealed is that most Americans live in fear, are highly panicked, and like young children they long for an all-powerful parent to care for their every need and make it all okay. So much for "home of the brave"....

edit/add: speaking of those Americans with questionable character.... the "cancel the rent" movement in New York City (and elsewhere) is growing, fronted by AOC. Okay, fine--don't pay your rent. Because the landlord cannot afford the repairs when the plumbing has a problem you are shit out of luck. When the building needs other maintenance--too bad, perhaps you should have paid your rent. When the property gets seized by the county for nonpayment of taxes and all the residents are officially kicked out, that is too damned bad--perhaps you should have paid your rent. If your rent is too high...well, that's what you get for living in New York--move to some other location where the rent is lower and you can find a job that can pay your bills. Does AOC realize how many of her fellow Members of Congress are invested in real estate? Canceling rent negatively impacts their bottom line, so they are not going to allow that.

[peter]

Given the recent press furore over the secrecy surrounding the UK Governments science advisory committee SAGE, supposed to be purely scientific in composition, but recently speculated to have at least one third of it's makeup coming from political backgrounds, I think the following quotation is apposite: When you mix science and politics what you get is politics.



Much is being made of the NHS's shortly to be introduced track and trace app, which is to be used as a central plank in the release of the nation from lockdown over the coming weeks. Am I the only one who sees potential problems with this, for example in the form of the 'six degrees of separation' rule run riot. I can envisage a situation where within a short period of time of it's being downloaded, every single person who has it installed being instructed to go into self-isolation. And what about the legal ramifications. Saying you have it in operation, trust it's functional capabilities - and then get the virus anyway? Are the NHS liable for any failure of the system. Or saying, like the last time the NHS tried to get a computer system up and running, it simply doesn't work? These guys have form in not being good in these areas. I saw an article the other day that said that Google already has an up and running app that would do exactly that which this NHS app is supposed to do - a tried and tested alternative - but that the NHS insists on developing it's own. What's that all about? Why? I'm sure there's a good reason for this,but let's be having it.

Anyway, on the slightly more positive front, I saw a doctor from the WHO the other day saying that the people in South Korea (I think) who were thought to have tested positive a second time for the virus (after having recovered from the illness) have been demonstrated as having been displaying false positive results. This was caused by cells containing non-infective viral detritus being sloughed from the lungs as part of the recovery process. This doesn't mean we can't be reinfected, but it does mean that we haven't shown that we can.

[peter]

The current world wide death toll resulting from Covid-19 sits at around a quater of a million. This is a tragic figure by any standards, but worth putting into context. Of the big five WHO recognised parasitic diseases malaria alone kills around 400,000 annually - mostly children. I don't know what the total annual mortality figure attributable to these diseases is, but it must be upwards of a million. That's every year - year on year ad infinitum.

I wonder if these diseases were endemic to more countries in the northern hemisphere of the globe if they wouldn't be attracting the same amount of recognition and effort to contain them as Covid is currently enjoying.

[Avatar]

One interesting thing...our murder rate has declined by 87%. With only 138 deaths due to COVID-19, and a (usual) murder rate of around 60 people per day, we are probably one of the few countries in the world where the virus has led to a net population increase...

--A

[peter]

Do you remember in the film Blood Diamond Av, Leonardo DiCaprio said wryly something along the lines of ..."but this is Africa". Well, that's Africa I guess.

[TheFallen]

One significant area that has currently gone largely unaddressed in the very recent easing of restriction discussions is allowing incoming foreign nationals.

With the populist nationalists being in control, I suspect we will see a lot of...

"The pandemic is getting better. Go back to work."

at the same time as

"We can't let these foreigners in while the pandemic is so bad."

Well...

I don't think anybody would describe New Zealand as having a "populist nationalist" administration to any extent. Despite this, here's what Jacinda Ardern, NZ Prime Minister and leader of the NZ Labour Party had to say on the subject of immigration and open borders yesterday:

What did Jacinda Ardern say?

Ms Ardern said New Zealand and Australia were discussing a "bubble of sorts between us, a safe zone of travel".

She stressed there was "a lot of work to be done before we can progress...but it's obviously been floated because of the benefits it would bring".

But, in response to a question about the country's tourism sector, Ms Ardern said: "We will not have open borders for the rest of the world for a long time to come."

And here's your link.

Now if a relatively progressive government is stating that this is its policy for the foreseeable future, I suspect that this is going to be the so-called "new normal" across much of the First World for many months to come.

If that's the case and the upcoming new reality - and without the slightest desire to be endemically isolationist or xenophobic - I can't help thinking that yet again it's somewhat advantageous that the UK is an island nation - something that's stood us in good stead more than once over the course of history.

Of the big five WHO recognised parasitic diseases malaria alone kills around 400,000 annually - mostly children.

Although somewhat off-topic, I noticed this story yesterday, which sounds very promising regarding the opportunity to dramatically lesssen (if not eradicate) the prevalence of malaria worldwide.

Malaria 'completely stopped' by microbe

Scientists have discovered a microbe that completely protects mosquitoes from being infected with malaria.

The team in Kenya and the UK say the finding has "enormous potential" to control the disease.

Malaria is spread by the bite of infected mosquitoes, so protecting them could in turn protect people.

The researchers are now investigating whether they can release infected mosquitoes into the wild, or use spores to suppress the disease.

What is this microbe?

The malaria-blocking bug, Microsporidia MB, was discovered by studying mosquitoes on the shores of Lake Victoria in Kenya. It lives in the gut and genitals of the insects.

The researchers could not find a single mosquito carrying the Microsporidia that was harbouring the malaria parasite. And lab experiments, published in Nature Communications, confirmed the microbe gave the mosquitoes protection.

Microsporidias are fungi, or at least closely related to them, and most are parasites.

However, this new species may be beneficial to the mosquito and was naturally found in around 5% of the insects studied.

How big a discovery is it?

"The data we have so far suggest it is 100% blockage, it's a very severe blockage of malaria," Dr Jeremy Herren, from the International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe) in Kenya told the BBC.

He added: "It will come as a quite a surprise. I think people will find that a real big breakthrough."

...

How does the microbe stop malaria?

The fine details still need to be worked out.

But Microsporidia MB could be priming the mosquito's immune system, so it is more able to fight off infections.

Or the presence of the microbe in the insect could be having a profound effect on the mosquito's metabolism, making it inhospitable for the malaria parasite.

Microsporidia MB infections appear to be life-long. If anything, the experiments show they become more intense, so the malaria-blocking effect would be long-lasting.

And here's this link.

[SoulBiter]

Interesting on the mosquito. I know that scientists have been working on a genetically modified mosquito for years but because of how easy it would be to make a mistake and destroy an ecosystem, they have been resistant to actually releasing these into the wild. However I wonder if they actually did release some and this is the mutation they put in.


Engineering Malaria resistant mosquitos

In previous work, a team led by Dr. George Dimopoulos at Johns Hopkins University genetically modified Anopheles mosquitoes to boost immune activity in their midguts. This immune boost successfully suppressed malaria causing Plasmodium parasites as well as bacteria. In their current study, the team examined the effects of these modifications in several generations of mosquitoes. The work was funded by NIH National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). Results were published in Science on September 29, 2017.

The researchers caged equal numbers of wild and genetically modified mosquitoes and then monitored their breeding. They expected about 75% of the resulting mosquitoes to have the resistance trait. However, the trait was found in about 90% of the first mosquito generation and remained at that level through 10 generations. Even when the team mixed 10% modified mosquitoes with 90% wild ones, the resistance trait dominated after a few generations. Importantly, the modified mosquitoes maintained their resistance to the malaria parasite for 7 years.

The scientists showed that the immune boost caused changes in the microbial community, or microbiota, of both the mosquito midgut and reproductive organs. This, in turn, altered mating preferences among the mosquitoes. Genetically modified males preferred wild females, and wild males preferred modified females. These preferences helped to quickly spread the protective trait through the mosquito population.

[Zarathustra]

One significant area that has currently gone largely unaddressed in the very recent easing of restriction discussions is allowing incoming foreign nationals.

With the populist nationalists being in control, I suspect we will see a lot of...

"The pandemic is getting better. Go back to work."

at the same time as

"We can't let these foreigners in while the pandemic is so bad."

Well...

I don't think anybody would describe New Zealand as having a "populist nationalist" administration to any extent. Despite this, here's what Jacinda Ardern, NZ Prime Minister and leader of the NZ Labour Party had to say on the subject of immigration and open borders yesterday:

What did Jacinda Ardern say?

Ms Ardern said New Zealand and Australia were discussing a "bubble of sorts between us, a safe zone of travel".

She stressed there was "a lot of work to be done before we can progress...but it's obviously been floated because of the benefits it would bring".

But, in response to a question about the country's tourism sector, Ms Ardern said: "We will not have open borders for the rest of the world for a long time to come."

And here's your link.

Now if a relatively progressive government is stating that this is its policy for the foreseeable future, I suspect that this is going to be the so-called "new normal" across much of the First World for many months to come.

If that's the case and the upcoming new reality - and without the slightest desire to be endemically isolationist or xenophobic - I can't help thinking that yet again it's somewhat advantageous that the UK is an island nation - something that's stood us in good stead more than once over the course of history.

Well said. You can simultaneously want your own economy to get back on track, while also wanting to limit immigration/travel from other countries. The two aren't at all mutually exclusive, nor is the pairing irrational, given that infection rates aren't the same for all countries. It's the same logic involved in saying that the individual U.S. states should be treated differently, based on factors on the ground. There's no need for Tennessee to behave like New York.

We could just as easily say that the open borders, "let illegals vote" liberals will want us all to self-quarantine for months while still doing nothing to stop illegal immigration.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

We could just as easily say that the open borders, "let illegals vote" liberals will want us all to self-quarantine for months while still doing nothing to stop illegal immigration.

The places which are being hit worst by corona in the United States are also sanctuary cities, with the exception of the Texas Panhandle--where the meat processing plants are; the work forces there are primarily immigrants of various status.

[wayfriend]

One significant area that has currently gone largely unaddressed in the very recent easing of restriction discussions is allowing incoming foreign nationals.

With the populist nationalists being in control, I suspect we will see a lot of...

"The pandemic is getting better. Go back to work."

at the same time as

"We can't let these foreigners in while the pandemic is so bad."

Well...

I don't think anybody would describe New Zealand as having a "populist nationalist" administration to any extent. Despite this, here's what Jacinda Ardern, NZ Prime Minister and leader of the NZ Labour Party had to say on the subject of immigration and open borders yesterday:

Well, that's not really anything to do with what I said, now is it? If she's not a populist, then it doesn't really address anything I said. But more importantly, I was speaking of hypocracy - either the pandemic is serious, or it is not. Ardern doesn't flip flop on the seriousness - yes, she is limiting international travel, but she is not simultaneously "re-opening" the economy when covid death rates are still rising exponentially. She doesn't downplay it on one side and overplay it on the other.

Just to be clear: it's a perfectly reasonable opinion to believe that things are getting a bit safer in your country but that opening travel to non-safe areas is not wise. There is no hypocrisy there. (And so, it wasn't the topic of my comment!) However, lifting restrictions when it is not prudent to do so while pretending things are "good", while at the same time restricting travel from countries that are actually safer and more contained than yours is (and with respect to the US, practically every country fits this category) by pretending things are "bad" there would be exactly the kind of thing I am talking about.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

Starting today in Kansas City, if you spend more then 10 minutes in any "nonessential' business, including churches, your personal information must be collected by that business then turned over to that county's health department. Any business which does this should also be reported so that everyone knows which businesses are collecting personal data. Is the business owner prepared to use more force to make me identify myself than I am used to prevent that from happening?

More "papers, please" policies in the People's Republic of America. Good citizens comply for the good of the State, so I guess I am not a good citizen--fuck that policy.

[SoulBiter]

Starting today in Kansas City, if you spend more then 10 minutes in any "nonessential' business, including churches, your personal information must be collected by that business then turned over to that county's health department. Any business which does this should also be reported so that everyone knows which businesses are collecting personal data. Is the business owner prepared to use more force to make me identify myself than I am used to prevent that from happening?

More "papers, please" policies in the People's Republic of America. Good citizens comply for the good of the State, so I guess I am not a good citizen--fuck that policy.

I'm going to jail when they ask for mine.

[SoulBiter]

Pumping fear

A revised mortality model predicts coronavirus deaths in the U.S. will nearly double to 135,000 through August as states continue to ease social distancing restrictions.

So my own model that I update as new data comes in, currently shows we will hit 139K in mid June not August. They have almost no chance of being wrong in this and can pump this out making people think things are getting worse when they arent.

Sadly people that arent familiar with data will take them at face value.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

The blurb I saw the other day said the CDC was predicting 3,000 deaths per day--I stopped reading at that point because that was just bullshit.

[TheFallen]

In IHME news, guess what the uber-brainiacs there have just announced? Here's a clue:-

But wait! In direct contrast to my latter projection, the godlike geniuses at the IHME are currently and confidently stating that there will now only be less than 4,000 new US attributed coronavirus deaths between now and the 4th of August (i.e. the next three months - so the brainboxes are projecting less than a quarter of what I reckon and (what's more) in more than three times the timescale).

So... less than 24 hours ago, the IHME fuckwitted bozos were projecting a total of just c. 72,500 US coronavirus attributed deaths by August 4th... even though anyone with half a braincell and a view of actual already reported numbers could see that they were talking utter unadulterated horseshit. (As I type, US reported deaths have already surpassed 72,000).

Well, some time in the last 24 hours they've dramatically "updated their algorithms" for the umpteenth time (aka "finally realised their latest crashingly crass error about a week after everyone else had") and are now equally confidently projecting 134,500 US COVID-19 deaths within the same timeframe.

Yes, that's correct. From one day to the next, the IHME has near-on doubled its projection for US coronavirus deaths by Aug 4th for no apparent reason at all.

Okay sure, their latest revised projection is bringing them a bit closer to the likely reality of things, but again I ask... what the fuck is the point of this organisation? It is literally a laughing stock... a farce. Is it publicly funded? If so, in God's name, why?

[Hashi Lebwohl]

Shelly Luther, owner of Salon a la Mode in Addison (a suburb just north of Dallas itself) and now political activist, defied a cease-and-desist order as well as a restraining order--seriously, she was given a restraining order preventing her from coming onto the property she rents as a business owner--so a judge put her in jail. What news stories probably won't tell you, but local news did, is that what made up the judge's mind was the Ms. Luther would not apologize and admit that she was being selfish for defying the orders. What the fuck? Those things are not against the law and yet he threw her into jail anyway. Fuck Dallas Civil District Judge Eric Moye and his temper tantrums.

The United States was founded on the principles of disobedience and independence. Far too many of us have forgotten that and it is high time we start engaging in those behaviors whenever possible. Defy groupthink Socialism!

[Wosbald]

+JMJ+

[...]

The United States was founded on the principles of disobedience and independence. ...

... and who, disguised as Clark Kent -- mild-mannered reporter for a great metropolitan newspaper -- fights a never-ending battle for disobedience, pigheadedness, and the American Way.

[peter]

I see that leading Government advisor Neil Furguson has been caught with his pants down - almost literally as it happens - having sneaky visits from his mistress while instructing the rest of us to segregate ourselves from our families and loved ones. Well whadaya know.....

Here's a story. I don't know how relevant you might think it - but bear it in mind as the next few weeks and months pass; it might help you understand some of what you see.

A number of years ago I was involved in the foot and mouth outbreak, administrating the documentation and issuing movement licences, as well as visiting the farms of the locality and keeping them up to speed. The ministry of the day, once the outbreak was declared, went into a frenzy of activity, instigating a policy of total slaughter of animals on any farm effected and if my memory serves me, any farms contiguous to the farm where a positive diagnosis was made. A total shutdown of the movement of animals was instigated, excepting upon the issuing of movement licences which we in private rural practice, were given authority to grant. In the practice I worked in the volume of official paperwork we were recieving daily - the licenses, followed by new licences, followed by different licence's for different purposes, followed by instructions of this order and that, sub-section z pertaining to paragraph 3 of order 3.9 section B.........

Soon after the outbreak was declared I had a pile of papers as tall as myself to wade through - and it became apparent that not only did I not know what the fuck was going on, neither did anyone else. The farmers who had their livestock slaughtered were putting in often staggeringly inflated claims as to the value of the stock - I heard tales of thirty quid calves being claimed as pedigree breeders valued in the hundreds and that of farmers riding all the way to the bank on a wave of compensatory payments.

It was costing the country uncounted millions, the livestock industry was under threat of being destroyed in perpetuity and there was no end to it in sight. Now my father - an old school veterinarian who had moved to the West Country in his early days in practice - could remember how foot and mouth had been dealt with before it had been made a notifiable disease by the then Ministry of Agriculture. In the nineteen fifties, if a farm had a case, the vet would take the animal out into a remote part of the farm, shoot it and instruct that the carcass be burned or buried in line. End off. It would be done and no more would be heard.

This time however, under the circumstances of the notifiable status of the disease, it was risking the entire future of livestock agriculture in this country. A friend of mine, a Ministry veterinarian who was seconded up to the North of the country was, for months on end, in the thick of it. She was on the farms worst effected, slaughtering animals by the thousands and organising the huge pyres of burning carcasses. Nightmare stuff that went on for months and months. After nearly a year, when the outbreak and it's repercussions had all but decimated the livestock industry in this country and the full financial fallout was beginning to be realised. The following happened. My friend, attending one of her frequently held regional meetings was informed, along with her colleagues in the field, by the Divisional Veterinary Officer for the region, that the outbreak was over. They had cleared the region from foot and mouth and were now in the clear. My friend, never one to sit by quietly if there was something to say, stuck her hand up and said "I've been to two suspect farms this week that haven't been......." The DVO cut her off. "There is NO evidence of foot and mouth disease remaining in this region" he said in a voice that would brook no contradiction.

And that was the end of it. The furore ended, the movement restrictions were lifted and things went back to normal. It melted away as if it had never happened. My friend returned to her normal pre-foot and mouth duties and life in the farming communities took back it's usual shape.

As a matter of interest the epidemiologists upon whose research the Government response to foot and mouth was based was that of the team led by Neil Furguson.

[Avatar]

The blurb I saw the other day said the CDC was predicting 3,000 deaths per day--I stopped reading at that point because that was just bullshit.

Well, a bit over 2,500 US deaths reported in the last 24 hours I see.

In the nineteen fifties, if a farm had a case, the vet would take the animal out into a remote part of the farm, shoot it and instruct that the carcass be burned or buried in line. End off. It would be done and no more would be heard.

Interestingly, Russia has recently reported a severe anthrax outbreak which they believe can be traced to the body of a reindeer frozen into the permafrost 75 years ago.

Increasing temperatures led to a thaw which freed the body and reactivated the spores. (Indeed, the spores can apparently remain alive in undisturbed soil for nearly 50 years...)

--A

[Skyweir]

A staged, considered, risk based, intelligence led approach is surely a defensible way forward.

2.5k deaths a day is surely a trend needing address and mitigation.

Of course borders will not remain closed, restrictions cannot tenably persist ... but logic dictates value in social distancing, sanitisation processes being maintained.

There are complaints about the government and the value of social disobedience... what is that value?

A-symptomatic carriers exist ... and walk among us. Symptomatic carriers are far easier to manage .. but both need mitigating adequately.

A vaccine is a primary management strategy ... and that is still months and months away.