Kevin's Watch

Reference Xanatos Gambit

I'm exploring Donaldson's use of the Xanatos Gambit in LFB. This trope involves the grand Chess Master of all time, Lord Foul, manipulating the New Lords into rescuing the Staff of Law from Drool Rockworm. Foul's strategy here was to convince the Lords that if they sit in Lord's Keep and do nothing Foul's victory in the Land will be assured in seven years. However, if they do manage to acquire the Staff, Foul's victory will be assured in 49 years. After waiting so long, what's another 42 years?

The Xanatos Gambit is a method used by Chess Masters to ensure their own victory given any possible scenario. But Foul omits one crucial detail: if the Lords acquire the Staff and kill Drool, Foul will acquire the Illearth Stone. And in fact, this latter is Foul's immediate goal in LFB, since it is Drool who is standing in his way. The Lords are thus being used as puppets to help Foul eliminate Drool.

This link is fun to explore - beware, possible spoilers abound!

To use your terms, I'd say Foul sending the Lords on the quest for the Staff is an example of the Batman Gambit. He needs to get Drool and the Staff out of the way in order to even begin his plans. He knows Drool will go nuts with the Staff's power, and he knows how the Lords will react, so he manipulates all of them to his ends. With Drool: find the Illearth Stone, bring Covenant to the Land. The Lords: Dispose of Drool, leaving the Illearth Stone for him to claim.

Orlion wrote:To use your terms, I'd say Foul sending the Lords on the quest for the Staff is an example of the Batman Gambit. He needs to get Drool and the Staff out of the way in order to even begin his plans. He knows Drool will go nuts with the Staff's power, and he knows how the Lords will react, so he manipulates all of them to his ends. With Drool: find the Illearth Stone, bring Covenant to the Land. The Lords: Dispose of Drool, leaving the Illearth Stone for him to claim.

Actually it was "bring Covenant to the Land" and then "find the Illearth Stone." Recall that in Foul's bad-guy rant at the beginning of LFB he implied that the Stone hadn't been found yet.

As for the Batman Gambit, that one is not foolproof, it contains a fatal potential flaw inherent to the plan. In this case, however, Foul had rigged it so that he wins no matter what. If they gain the Staff, Foul wins in 49 years. If they fail, Foul wins in 7 years.

TheWormoftheWorld'sEnd wrote: In this case, however, Foul had rigged it so that he wins no matter what. If they gain the Staff, Foul wins in 49 years. If they fail, Foul wins in 7 years.

Foul definitely wants the Lords to think this, but I'm not convinced. I'm under the impression that if the Lords had done nothing, they would have been destroyed by Drool, but at the same time, I think Foul's plans would have been shattered as well. Foul needs the Lords to protect and (after Drool is dead) summon Covenant to the Land. He needs the Lords to pressure Covenant, presumably to a breaking point where Covenant will do what Foul wants him to. The Quest for the Staff did benefit Foul, but I'm not convinced that inaction on the Lord's part would have benefited Foul.

Orlion wrote:

TheWormoftheWorld'sEnd wrote: In this case, however, Foul had rigged it so that he wins no matter what. If they gain the Staff, Foul wins in 49 years. If they fail, Foul wins in 7 years.

Foul definitely wants the Lords to think this, but I'm not convinced. I'm under the impression that if the Lords had done nothing, they would have been destroyed by Drool, but at the same time, I think Foul's plans would have been shattered as well. Foul needs the Lords to protect and (after Drool is dead) summon Covenant to the Land. He needs the Lords to pressure Covenant, presumably to a breaking point where Covenant will do what Foul wants him to. The Quest for the Staff did benefit Foul, but I'm not convinced that inaction on the Lord's part would have benefited Foul.

This quickly turns into a 'what-if' analysis that goes beyond the actual Xanatos Gambit.

According to his bad-guy rant, if Covenant had failed to deliver his message to the Lords, Drool would be installed in Lord's Keep in two years. That certainly sounds like one of his plans. And yes Foul wants the Lords to believe this very much. They are his pawns to use against Drool. And if the quest for the SoL failed, Foul would have to deal with Drool instead.

The ultimate goal of course is Foul's possession of the white gold ring, and I think that's where you're going with your analysis. But that's not part of the actual Xanatos Gambit mentioned in his first bad-guy rant.

TheWormoftheWorld'sEnd wrote:This link is fun to explore - beware, possible spoilers abound!

I knew this had come up before... now I found it.

I have to say Batman's Gambit here. Too many ways Foul could have failed if anyone didn't do as Foul predicted. For example, if Covenant had gone with the Ramen into the Southron mountains where Foul could not have found him. Basically, if anyone had given up trying to save the Land, Foul would have failed.

wayfriend wrote:

TheWormoftheWorld'sEnd wrote:This link is fun to explore - beware, possible spoilers abound!

I knew this had come up before... now I found it.

I have to say Batman's Gambit here. Too many ways Foul could have failed if anyone didn't do as Foul predicted. For example, if Covenant had gone with the Ramen into the Southron mountains where Foul could not have found him. Basically, if anyone had given up trying to save the Land, Foul would have failed.

I'm going with tvtropes.org which calls it a Xanatos Gambit. The reasoning there seems valid enough to me.

Let me illustrate the difference between the two Gambits this way.

Foul's message to the Lords contained two distinct possibilities, both of which were deemed certain to succeed. That is the Xanatos Gambit on the face of it. Now anything that predicts the future with certainty must contain omniscience, which Lord Foul does not have. So all things being equal, Plan B should have succeeded, the Land should have been destroyed in 49 years. But failing that doesn't automatically convert it into a Batman Gambit. After all, if the bad guy always wins using the Xanatos Gambit then I hardly think anybody like Donaldson would have used it.

All the Xanatos Gambit requires is two strategies both of which are deemed certain of success.

The Batman Gambit, on the other hand, requires two elements, but not two strategies: 1. a manipulative "schemer" (Thomas Covenant in this case) along with a predictable opponent (Lord Foul who is nothing but predictable when he gets angry); 2. a one-way mission which the "schemer" knows could possibly end in complete failure. It does not consist of two different plots both of which are deemed certain to succeed as with the Xanatos Gambit.

And so, at the end of the 2nd Chrons, Covenant engaged in a classic Batman Gambit the success of which hinged on one crucial element: Lord Foul must kill Covenant with his own white gold. There is no alternate strategy as with the Xanatos Gambit. There is no kind of "victory in 7 years or 49 years, it's your choice" strategy in the Batman Gambit, it is a one-strategy success-or-fail mission.

Now you could argue that there is an element of "Batman Gambit" in Foul's plot at the beginning of LFB. It involves his ability to manipulate events in a predictable fashion. That's true, but this does not trump the fact that, unlike a Batman Gambit, Foul had fashioned two plans both deemed certain of eventual success.

Since I started this general topic I'll mention a second use of the Xanatos Gambit found in the 1st Chrons, particularly the last two books. This Gambit also has an element of Plan B, although in a true Plan B someone actually has to refer to it as "Plan B."

Lord Foul's second use of the Xanatos Gambit involves his employment of two armies. The first one was bad-ass, but not bad-ass enough; with the decimation of the Lords' army the first time around, the second and even larger army of evil was certain to succeed. This, combined with the Million Mook March, made for a spectacular and unforgettable double-trope skillfully played by Donaldson.

I see that the creators of the tvtropes.org site neglected to mention the use of the Million Mook March in the first Chrons.

Tvtropes.org also missed this one. The Palantir Ploy, the ability of the bad guys to always know where the good guys are.

The bad guys have cameras everywhere. Like some even-more-sinister version of Big Brother, they always know exactly where the heroes are and what they're doing, even if there's no possible reason for them to be able to.

Can anyone guess in which Chrons book Donaldson used this technique?

I'm guessing in LFB when Drool could always tell where they were by Covenant's boots.

Last chrons spoiler:

Spoiler

And apparently they can tell where Linden and crew are in the 2nd half of FR.

Relayer wrote:I'm guessing in LFB when Drool could always tell where they were by Covenant's boots.

Yes. I guess you don't need to be an expert on Julie and Heatherly's show to know that. Or were you?

Relayer wrote:Last chrons spoiler:

Spoiler

And apparently they can tell where Linden and crew are in the 2nd half of FR.

Nah, I've barely watched any of FBH... another avenue to explore someday

Relayer wrote:Nah, I've barely watched any of FBH... another avenue to explore someday

Boobs.