Malaysia Airlines MH370

[Hashi Lebwohl]

Okay, I didn't pay too much attention to this story over the weekend due to my wife's current health problems. Still, at least in some news venues the story has replaced Ukraine as the top story. Here is the latest story on the missing flight from Al Jazeera America. Reuters is reporting that the Malaysian military was the last entity to have contact with the plane.
Other things to note about this missing flight:
after three full days of searching there has not yet been any site of the plane or wreckage from the plane
two passengers were using stolen passports but it appears these two were going to Germany to seek asylum
apparently some of the passengers' smart devices are still showing as 'online'
the previous search area east of Malaysia has been abandoned and the search is now to the west, based on reports that the plane took a sharp 90 degree turn in flight
there has been no sign of any signal from the emergency locator device on the plane

The wild conspiracy theories are already flying, as well. The mild ones are things like "the plane was taken, forced to land at an unused air strip in the jungle somewhere, and is being fitted for use in another attack" but the truly bizarre one is "the plane was taken, passengers and all, by unknown forces not of this world".

[SoulBiter]

They will find the airplane, passengers and crew on a mysterious tropical island somewhere in the South Pacific Ocean right next to Oceanic Airlines Flight 815. I would investigate any links to the Dharma Initiative.

[Vraith]

but the truly bizarre one is "the plane was taken, passengers and all, by unknown forces not of this world".

I was surprised I hadn't heard that one yet. Sorta wish it was the true one, since it's the only one that leaves much chance for the people to still be alive.

What amazes me about this...and some folk, especially airline folk, are trying to say "it's not that simple."...is that we can still LOSE a PLANE.
Maybe some things...like constant streaming of all the aircraft data...is a bit difficult and maybe expensive. [[I don't think it is, but maybe...]]
But GPS, heading, and speed? NOT hard, NOT expensive.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

To me the most mysterious fact is the lack of signal from the emergency locators. Either they were turned off--which I am not certain is even possible short of physically damaging them--or they were not activated upon impact, which would mean the plane landed relatively safely somewhere.

I would disbelieve any hypothesis which claims that the passengers were taken by some criminal organization for use as workers in some capacity. If they need people then there are more efficient ways of getting people such as taking control of buses. I would also disbelieve any claim that the plane was taken, forced to land, and be retrofitted to commit an 11 September-style attack. This plan would require a fake transponder (a plane with no transponder for identification will likely be shot down before it reaches its target) and call letters (which may or may not be useful). No, the logistics don't work--the terrorists might have the desire to do something like this but they do not have the means.

If the plane hit the water slowly enough then it wouldn't break apart. It could have become submerged whole but certainly this would show up on sonar and be immediately identifiable. Perhaps the pilot was trying to do what that pilot who landed his plane in the Potomac did? (I can't recall the pilot's name at the moment).

[Savor Dam]

The pilot's name is Chesley Sullenberger, and it was the Hudson, not the Potomac. US Airways Flight 1549 on January 15, 2009.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

Thank you for the clarification. I could not recall the details accurately.

[Avatar]

The "aliens" theory was one of the first I heard. *sigh*

As for losing planes, it took them 2 years to find the wreckage of that French flight in 2009. Some planes have never been found. (Not many, granted, but still.)

The ocean is one hell of a big place. And emergency radio beacons are just radio beacons. Sometimes our phones can't get a signal in a populated and transmitter-rich urban or suburban area.

It surprises me how many people are shocked that the tech isn't performing as we imagine it should.

It could have become submerged whole but certainly this would show up on sonar and be immediately identifiable.

If they knew how long the plane had continued to fly, at what heading and speed and altitude and attitude after contact was lost.

Without that knowledge, all they can do is cast in increasingly large circles around the point of last contact. In a big, big sea. The sea is around 60m deep there, and if it happens to be in a trench, your locator signal can be anything from relatively to seriously truncated.

I really don't suspect anything sinister (although it remains a possibility of course).

--A

[Hashi Lebwohl]

Satellite images showed what might be the downed plane but a search of that area turned up nothing.

The latest news is that some investigators believe the plane could have continued flying for up to four hours after its last known contact with air traffic control. Four hours. That is going to create an impossibly large search area--the plane could have made it to Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, or Vietnam with that range or it could have tanked in the Andaman or Bay of Bengal. If the four hour window is accurate then the plane will probably be found only by random chance...unless someone manages to get away from where it was taken (presuming that happened).

[Avatar]

Oh, here's an interesting one...

Twelve years ago, US avionics manufacturer L-3 estimated it would cost $300m a year for a global airline to transmit flight data in real time, Bloomberg Businessweek magazine reported.

Cheaper today I wonder?

--A

[Hashi Lebwohl]

Definitely cheaper these days. Trucking companies use similar equipment to keep track of shipments on the highways, truck locations, and driver hours.

Moving into day 10 it is now presumed that the plane was deliberately misdirected--it dropped to 1500m to avoid commercial radar, kept to commercial routes for the first couple of hours, and someone purposely turned off tracking equipment in the cockpit. Projections based on fuel estimates and flight times show that the plane could have been taken anywhere in a huge circle containing almost all of India, north all the way to Beijing (the plane's original destination), anywhere in Southeast Asia, part of Australia, or any of the islands in between Asia and Australia. In short, it is an impossibly large search area.

I am pretty certain the plane was not diverted to India or Australia, unless whoever was piloting it was able to avoid radar detection in those countries. My wild speculation--bordering on conspiracy theory--is that Chinese nationals on the plane took it and flew it to China. Why? *shrug* I don't know--maybe there was something or someone on the plane that China wanted without looking like they were able to obtain it.

By now, though, the plane itself could have been repainted with a different call sign and a different transponder installed.

[Cail]

Nothing good has happened to those aboard the plane. If in fact the flight was diverted and had a controlled landing, one can only hope that the passengers were quickly dispatched and not......Used for things.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

I agree--most are probably unfortunately dead by now. Those who remain have likely been put to work in some capacity so I am uncertain if we should consider them "lucky".

The real concern shouldn't be this particular missing plane, although those searching for it shouldn't give up until they find it. No, the real concern is not that this particular plane went missing but the fact that this test run was a success. Whoever put this together now knows that it is possible to capture a plane mid-flight and essentially make it disappear for a time period long enough to put the captured plane to misuse.

Right now, even as I type, various national security agencies are working with airlines and air transportation administrations to figure out what to do the next time this happens. We are going to have to put in place a recommendation I made almost 13 years ago--as soon as air traffic control sees a plane divert from its normal course then either stop communicating or turn off its transponder/communication equipment you call the military, scramble some fighters, have the pilots track the jet by sight, then order it to resume normal course or land at the nearest available strip. Failure to comply with either request will result in being shot down in flight. Better to lose some planes and passengers this way to have another 11 September happen somewhere. Imagine the destruction if a plane gets flown into a Petronas Tower, or Taipei 101, or a Burj Khalifa, not to mention any of a number of buildings of historical or national significance. *yeesh*

[Zarathustra]

Another frightening scenario: what if this plane was disguised as Hashi says, and then loaded with a nuclear bomb and flown over a U.S. city?

It's looking more and more like this was a sophisticated theft. Not a hijacking, but taken by the pilot or pilots themselves. They want that plane for a reason.

[SerScot]

Why would this plane be more useful than any other plane to be used as a weapon's delivery system. Any un-identified aircraft is going to be challenged. How could this plane show up as anything but an unidentified aircraft?

[wayfriend]

If your going to assume something sophisticated is going on, then you'd have to imagine that the first step in the plot would be to see if it was feasible to steal a jumbo jet en route. Mission accomplished.

Step Two is to get a lot of poisonous snakes.

I think the most likely scenario is that the plane was pirated and that they would hold the plan and the passengers for ransom somewhere.

The fact that they didn't means that they crashed it somewhere.

I suppose it's possible that they could arm it with a nuclear weapon. Or smallpox. Or snakes. Or anti-gay activists. And then use it as a weapon. But that's going to be just about the most difficult way to deliver such things out of all possible ways to do so.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

I think the most likely scenario is that the plane was pirated and that they would hold the plan and the passengers for ransom somewhere.

The fact that they didn't means that they crashed it somewhere.

Yes, they probably tanked somewhere in the Indian Ocean. If it isn't found in the next two or three weeks it will probably be 10 years before anyone finds it.

[Zarathustra]

Why would this plane be more useful than any other plane to be used as a weapon's delivery system. Any un-identified aircraft is going to be challenged. How could this plane show up as anything but an unidentified aircraft?

As Hashi said, it could be repainted and fitted with a transponder. Then you pick another flight going to a city you want to destroy, preferably leaving from the general viscinity as your captured plane. You put terrorists on that one (much easier than putting a bomb or chemical or biological weapons--which are already on the first captured plane). Then you simply capture that plane in the same way as with the first stolen plane, and swap in real time. The swap out could be as easy as following behind plane 2 under the radar, then once plane 2 drops below radar, fly plane 1 into its position and pretend to be it.

It’s really pretty simple. But devastating in its results. Given the general location, I'd predict LA to be the target.

I'm not assuming that something sophisticated is going on. It appears that someone did steal a commercial plane, turn off all its electronics, and fly it for hours under the radar, completely evading all global tracking systems from land, air, and space. That's already pretty sophisticated. Go try it yourself and see. Do I believe or assume the rest is happening? No. But it's a disturbing scenario. I thought we were brainstorming here ... taking a wild guess. Do I think our government is seriously considering this possibility? You bet your ass. (But not so much the snakes idea.)

[Edit:

Late Monday, the New York Times reported that the mysterious turn that diverted the missing flight off of its scheduled route to Beijing was programmed into a computer system on board, meaning it was not executed manually by one of the pilots at the controls.

Senior American officials told the newspaper that someone entered a code into a knee-high pedestal between the pilot and co-pilot.

The revelation lends more credence to a theory by investigators searching for the jet that the Boeing 777 was deliberately diverted. The Times reports it is unclear if the change in course was reprogrammed before or after the plane took off, but the change was likely made by someone in the cockpit with knowledge of airplane systems.

Authorities have pointed to the shutdown of the transponders and the ACARS as evidence that someone with a detailed knowledge of the plane was involved.

link

Sounds kind of sophisticated to me. ]

[Rau Le Creuset]

So, If anyone ever finds the plane they will be able to figure out what happened right? because of the black box thing or whatever they call it? I also heard that two people borded the plane with fake passports.. I don't know if thats true or not though.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

Yes, there were at least two known people on the flight who were using fake/stolen passports but they were, as far as investigators can tell, heading to Germany for political asylum and are not connected to any known terrorists or terror organizations.

As Hashi said, it could be repainted and fitted with a transponder. Then you pick another flight going to a city you want to destroy, preferably leaving from the general viscinity as your captured plane. You put terrorists on that one (much easier than putting a bomb or chemical or biological weapons--which are already on the first captured plane). Then you simply capture that plane in the same way as with the first stolen plane, and swap in real time. The swap out could be as easy as following behind plane 2 under the radar, then once plane 2 drops below radar, fly plane 1 into its position and pretend to be it.

Now you're talking.

I was unaware that the sharp turn was programmed into the equipment but I have a question: how do they know that? Did the on-board equipment send notification of the change before it was disabled?

Of course, pilot suicide has not been ruled out--thinking irrationally, a suicidal pilot might conclude that taking all the passengers with him makes sense. This would account for someone with knowledge of avionics making changes to equipment inside the cockpit.

edit to add: One military aviation expert thinks that some countries might be withholding radar evidence because to tell what they know might reveal flaws or weaknesses in their airspace defenses. Also, the pilot has a relative who is related to an opposition political leader in Malaysia. Fascinating.

[Avatar]

Is this a more plausible theory? It's certainly a simpler one...

www.businessinsider.com/malaysia-plane-fire-2014-3

--A