Covid-19

[Mighara Sovmadhi]

I've been waiting for this prophecy to come true, and it seems as if it did in the most peculiar way: "When the apocalypse comes no one will not know it as anything but ordinary even in its finality. Especially in its finality." I'll let interested posters look up the source on their own time.

[TheFallen]

For what it's worth, CNN would have you believe that this sharply revised downward overall US death number is because rigorously imposed social distancing was even more successful than originally forecast. Either that or more people than were expected are following the current rigorous lockdown rules. (And no, I don't believe either of those statements).

Here's an interview they ran with some boffin yesterday in an attempt to explain the sharp drop in predicted US deaths:-

CNN: The model assumes social distancing. The fact that the numbers have dropped twice now, does that show that either there's more social distancing happening than expected or is it that social distancing itself is more effective than was expected?

GR: The model has always assumed that social distancing has an impact on the number of deaths that we expect to occur. It has also always assumed that every state where social distancing policies have not yet been mandated, that they will be mandated within a week of the date that we ran that model. So the model is always forecasting based on the assumption that the states are all going to line up behind a broad, aggressive social distancing policy. However, we certainly account for the fact that some states have implemented that much earlier than others.

[Obi-Wan Nihilo]

For what it's worth, CNN would have you believe that this sharply revised downward overall US death number is because rigorously imposed social distancing was even more successful than originally forecast. Either that or more people than were expected are following the current rigorous lockdown rules. (And no, I don't believe either of those statements).

I don't believe them either. Anecdotally, I've witnessed many people ignoring the order(s), and I'm sure that's happening nationwide.

[SoulBiter]

Well we will know for sure at some point what was correct. Sweden has not implemented most of these measures. If it explodes there, while decreasing everywhere else, then we know that it was indeed the measures we took that kept this from getting out of control.

[TheFallen]

I agree that it's GIGO, but looking at the numbers that are being reported - at least in the US - we're flattening out.

I think you're calling this much too early.

Once I see say even just three consecutive days where the number of newly reported US coronavirus cases increases by less than 5%, then I'll agree with you that things are starting to flatten out for you guys..

We can then look forward to a continuing and vigorous argument as to why this is the case...

[Obi-Wan Nihilo]

TF, look at the new cases on Worldmeter from April 3rd through today. It's flattening out.



BTW, we need to never listen to Neil Ferguson again.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

One interesting thing people need to know about coronavirus deaths from the United States: under current CDC guidelines, if someone tests positive for corona and then commits suicide the cause of death will be listed as "COVID-19", which is clearly false. In other words, our corona death count is being artificially inflated to a small degree because the wrong cause of death is being listed.

Some people cannot let go of identity politics--the case is being made now that corona is worse for black people because of historical impropriety and because "black people wearing masks makes people think they are criminals". When I see black people at the grocery story wearing masks my first thought is "they are trying not to catch it" as opposed to "they are trying to rob the store". Seriously--no one thinks that any more.

There was a sizeable group of about 150 young black adults hanging out in a 7-11 parking lot in Fort Worth a few days ago; it was brought to the attention of local media by Mark Veasey, the Member of Congress for that district. There were police across the street who did not try to break up the gathering, and for good reason too--the first thing that would have happened would be the cell phones coming out, accusing the police of racism while shouting "worldstar" then the accusations of racial profiling would have occurred.

Apparently China has had about the same number of cases for nearly a month now--no significant increase or decrease. Magic.

[Obi-Wan Nihilo]

One interesting thing people need to know about coronavirus deaths from the United States: under current CDC guidelines, if someone tests positive for corona and then commits suicide the cause of death will be listed as "COVID-19", which is clearly false. In other words, our corona death count is being artificially inflated to a small degree because the wrong cause of death is being listed.

I mentioned this yesterday. The government is padding the numbers to help justify the draconian steps taken.


So is anyone going to continue to make the argument that it was wise to put 20 million people out of work over a virus that might kill 60,000 people?

[SoulBiter]

That was brought up in one of the evening calls (last week). Basically they said, they have heard that and yes it is probable, but the opposite is also probable that people died from Covid but were never tested and were not being counted as a covid death.

I still say our "canary in a coal mine" is going to be Sweden. As mentioned above they have not implemented these same measures. There are 10 million people living there. If this gets crazy out of control there, then our answer is that the measures being taken are why there are so few deaths.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

A nurse in Brownsville (right across Rio Grande from Matamoros) went on social media, looking beaten, haggard, and her face lined from wearing masks to talk about the severely overcrowded condition in the ICU and to note that no one has left the ICU except in a body bag.

Oh, she means the county which has only 110 confirmed cases and 3 deaths so far? All 3 of them came from her ICU and left in body bags? Does she mean body bags like forensic teams or first responders might use? People don't leave ICUs in body bags--they get put onto a gurney, covered, and wheeled down to the morgue.

Thanks to the traffic, the new unofficial Cannonball Run record is 26 hours 38 minutes--New York to Los Angeles (either way, I presume). No one takes it seriously because traffic is not at normal levels.

Wealthy residents who have second homes in North Carolina's Outer Banks have sued because they are being denied access to those homes given that they do not live in the State as their primary/permanent residence. Their suit claims that continued inability to access their property will result in "irreparable" damage. I support still having our rights but this just seems like some whiny, privileged snots wanting their way.

[TheFallen]

BTW, we need to never listen to Neil Ferguson again.

Quite possibly true.

But then again it's equally possibly true that we shouldn't bother listening to the IHME - and those two stances are absolutely not mutually exclusive.

Looking at the IHME latest projections, I'm now going to ignore my own advice and start looking at cumulative deaths. Especially with a view to Italy.

You may recall that the IHME issued revised projections just yesterday that included applying its latest super smart and shiny modelling to European countries. As part of this, it projected a total number of 20,300 Italian COVID-19 deaths by August 4th. Yes, a total number of coronavirus-caused deaths for Italy by that point in time. Great news for Italy then - except...

I note that as of right now, Italy has reported 18,849 deaths, with 570 new ones being added today.

So by my reckoning, the shiny new and bang up to date IHME modelling - which, lest we forget is no more than 24 hours old - is projecting that over the next nigh on four whole months (or okay, the next 116 days to be totally accurate), there will only be a further 1,451 Italian coronavirus deaths...

Anyone want to pick a percentage of error that they think the IHME will be out by re Italy? I'm more than happy to go out on a limb here... so here's my prediction. Italy will reach that IMHE projected 20,300 total coronavirus deaths before the start of May, let alone the start of August.

And they'd still get there by the end of April even if Italian death numbers were to fall by a massive 28 percent every single day. A 28% reduction every single damn day... honestly, how realistic is that? And they'd still hit 20,300 deaths before May... and this projection was made yesterday by the IHME...

So, the IHME projections are at least in part oh so obviously a complete nonsense. They're not 100% financed by Beijing by any chance, are they?

And we are expected to trust such organisations to usefully inform government strategy? God help us if we do.

[Ur Dead]

Reading that Covid 19 now is 3 to 7 times more deadlier than the flu.
Some cases a cytokine storm is the cause of death. This is the same
reason so many deaths occurred in the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.
South Korea is experiencing a number of recoveries are again testing
positive for the virus but they may be a false reading.

When a vaccine is created and safe you will see in the US a mass inoculation
of the US population by mandate.
Just like back in the late 50's I received the Salk injections and the 60's
the multiple Sabin oral doses. Polio was a very dangerous disease.
This virus shutdown the world, in less than 2 month it spread across the
planet with every nook and cranny affect.

Stay safe.

[Zarathustra]

So is anyone going to continue to make the argument that it was wise to put 20 million people out of work over a virus that might kill 60,000 people?

We can't continue something we never started. No one ever made that argument. In fact, we stressed other things like mass infections, businesses shut down because so many were sick or afraid of getting sick, and the health care system being overwhelmed.

[Obi-Wan Nihilo]

So is anyone going to continue to make the argument that it was wise to put 20 million people out of work over a virus that might kill 60,000 people?

We can't continue something we never started. No one ever made that argument. In fact, we stressed other things like mass infections, businesses shut down because so many were sick or afraid of getting sick, and the health care system being overwhelmed.

Sorry man, you did, over and over. You told me that this was different, a big deal, a mass casualty event. You essentially called me an unfeeling person, blind to the mountain of death that we were facing. Meanwhile, the hospitals nationwide are empty.

You made the wrong call. Own it.

It is not fear, it is a rational, pragmatic calculation. One might as well accuse you of being motivated by fear, fear of losing your freedoms.Also, it is not the illusion of safety, it is the very definition of safety. Can you imagine how fast this disease will spread if we were still gathering at football games concerts? Imagine a highly infectious disease in a closed area surrounded by thousands of people breathing the same air. You are just not being realistic.

Only because we're practicing social distancing! There are less than a million ICU bed in America. Many 100s of 1000s of them are already filled in any given time. Why do you think this is a local problem at all? Why can't we marshal the resources of an entire country to help those localized problems? We're stretching capacity everywhere. You're still thinking in the mindset that we're not going to see numbers go up much higher, even though we've seen a five-fold increase in deaths for two weeks in a row. If numbers level off soon, it will only be because of the very policies you're against.

Lots of people are saying, "You don't know what would have happened. Those are just models." Etc. But what would have slowed the spread otherwise? We wouldn't have seen a drop in cases until the majority of people got sick. Imagine that, if you can. Most of America sick. They can't get into the hospitals. They can't go to work. The economy would shut down, we'd all be sheltering in place. Our rights would be be utterly useless. What principle does this serve?

As for the second point: because those things are not highly infectious diseases you catch by standing next to someone, which can spread throughout our entire country in weeks, and overwhelm our entire health care system.

The fact that you agreed with wayfriend should have been a massive clue that you were on the wrong side of this.

[Mighara Sovmadhi]

There is some suspicion that the confirmed death toll might be an undercount by a factor of 4 to 5 (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... death-toll and https://www.washingtonpost.com/investig ... story.html), so the global death toll might now be at 400,000 to 500,000 (100,000ish confirmed). And this is wave one, after all. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... demic.html gives 100,000 as the estimated number of US deaths in that context. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/pand ... imates.htm gives a range for deaths from that pandemic.

When the current pandemic began, did we know that it would "only" be this bad? Maybe, maybe not, I certainly did not, but I do remember the phrase "abundance of caution" on the lips of many.

EDIT: Nihilo, you are being very amusing. You say, "The fact that you agreed with wayfriend should have been a massive clue that you were on the wrong side of this," while your signature says, "Men and women range themselves into three classes or orders of intelligence; you can tell the lowest class by their habit of always talking about persons." Is that intentional or accidental?

[SoulBiter]

Obi, What you are either refusing to see or not grasping (or perhaps it's your "unbelief", which is appropriate for KW ), is that the only reason this wont be a mass die off is due to the restrictions put in place. In fact I called this out early as being the response if the restrictions worked.

US deaths a few days ago was 14K. Today its almost 20K. More than 2K deaths per day and rising. This virus is just ramping up in areas like Michigan, and New Orleans. So even when we see the peak in NY, we will have other areas that aren't at peak yet.

I am hoping that the treatment ts being developed or in the pipelines now will be the key. However without the valuable time this has given for ramp up, the virus would gave been much deadlier.

Let's see how Sweden fairs in the next 3 to 4 weeks. That will tell us whether the restrictions were worthwhile or not.

A that being said, it's time to start reopening our businesses. In my mind this was never to stay in place until no one was sick, but just to lessen the peak and give time to ramp up a response.

[Obi-Wan Nihilo]

Obi, What you are either refusing to see or not grasping (or perhaps it's your "unbelief", which is appropriate for KW ), is that the only reason this wont be a mass die off is due to the restrictions put in place.

Once again, that assumes facts not in evidence. The initial call with the restrictions in place was for millions of dead Americans. This virus was never lethal enough to cause a mass die-off.

[SoulBiter]

Obi, What you are either refusing to see or not grasping (or perhaps it's your "unbelief", which is appropriate for KW ), is that the only reason this wont be a mass die off is due to the restrictions put in place.

Once again, that assumes facts not in evidence. The initial call with the restrictions in place was for millions of dead Americans. This virus was never lethal enough to cause a mass die-off.

Your position is safe from a purely debate standpoint. Unless we allowed the virus to spread without restrictions, there will never be a way to know. Again, unless Sweden continues to do nothing and they end up being the test case for that side of the equation.

[TheFallen]

Just heard on the BBC that Sweden is changing tack and liable to impose harsher measures... though I don't know to what level.

Can't find a link yet, but apparently the Swedish PM has said that they've underestimated things and are consequently underprepared.

Separately, remember the much trumpeted uber-smart and shiny new modelling released by the IHME just 48 hours ago? The one informed with so much more data - including plenty from Beijing?

This genius-created model not only offered revised COVID-19 death projections for the US (60k deaths by August 4th, provided that strict social distancing measures stay in place throughout May)...

...the same algorithms were also used by the IHME to make projections on all European countries, including Italy... which the IHME stated had also provided much of the significant data employed in creating its uber-smart and shiny new modelling.

The revised IHME projection for Italy - made less than 48 hours ago - is that Italy will reach a total of 20,300 coronavirus deaths by August 4th, again provided that rigorous social distancing measures continue to be imposed throughout May. Yes, you did read that right... an IHME projection of a total of 20,300 Italian coronavirus deaths reached by August 4th.

Well... those harsh measures remain still in place in Italy, so that's completely in line with the IHME modelling criteria.

Unfortunately, having reported 570 new deaths yesterday, today Italy has announced a further 610, taking their cumulative COVID-19 death total up to 19,468 as of right now.

So, with its brand new and highly sophisticated developed modelling, the IHME has published projections just 48 hours ago, predicting that Italy will now only suffer 832 more deaths in the next 115 days...

...but the reality is - and this was oh so obvious to literally anyone outside the IHME - that Italy will actually reach that 20,300 death threshold in the next 2 to 3 days max.

How's that for a margin of error?

Why the living fuck would anybody listen to these utter drooling morons? And they're informing government strategy???

*** Added later edit ***

I've been a little unfair to the IHME. After a little more research, I've established that its revised and shiny new uber-sophisticated modelling was in fact produced on the 7th of April - so four days ago, not two.

However, great news! The IHME revised those revisions again yesterday - so they're even newer, even shinier, even more sophisticated and even more bang up to date! Noteworthy changes were:-

An increase in projected Italian deaths. They've added a simply massive 33 - yes you read that right, 33 - to their projected total to occur by August 4th. So they're now projecting 20,333 deaths instead of 20,300. They still can't see their major cock-up? Everyone else can...

A fractional ( ) decrease in their projected number of UK deaths by Aug 4th. Four days ago, the IHME were projecting an eye-poppingly bizarre 66.3k UK coronavirus deaths by that point. Just 72 hours later, that IHME projection has been reduced by a jaw-dropping 44% down to 37.5k... based on "the availability of three extra days of data".

Again, what the fuck is the point of publishing a model that is both:-

A. so clearly and repeatedly massively inaccurate against already visible reality (as with Italy), and

B. so incredibly fragile that just three days of extra data can cause a projection to be as near as dammit halved (as with the UK)... or as I've just spotted, more than trebled (as with the Netherlands - 4 days ago, the IHME were projecting 5.8k Dutch deaths by Aug 4th... yesterday they altered this just a teensy bit to 18.1k).

They might as well blindfold themselves and throw a dart at a dartboard. I hope to God that you guys in the US aren't paying for these morons via public funding... because they very obviously literally don't have a fucking clue.

[Mighara Sovmadhi]

Official projections keep mutating. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... -estimate/ discusses a projection of 100,000 minimum dead, a projection that came out of the White House. (The maximum of this range is given as 240,000.)