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peter
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Post by peter »

Alzheimer's Fist! I told you! ;)

And population's another thing.

I mean, the population of earth in 1940 was around 2 billion. Now it's 8. That's a fourfold increase in one lifespan. Which extrapolated (and not even exponentially) would give a population of 32 billion in 2099. How's that going to work? But how do you stop it rising and rising? Withhold proper medical treatment? Enforced population control measures ala China? Pay the poor to be sterilised?

There's very little means by which you can control population rise globally that doesn't involve some pretty bad shit. But more people require more energy and at the moment that means fossil fuels for most of the world.

I frikkin hate to be so negative but I simply don't see all of these balls being juggled at the moment to any good effect.

Humanities best hope is to construct effing great biodomes that can be hermetically sealed and environmentally controlled. Then develop the tech inside them to re-terraform our own planet back to the point where it is habitable again. Of course outside these cordoned off areas it would be a jungle, and who knows some people might survive the thousand years or so it would take to complete the job. It'd be pretty stone age stuff for those left outside to fend for themselves (and the eventual meeting with the 'dome dwellers' when they finally emerge would make a good story in itself) but humans are tough and resourceful.

Sounds like ridiculous science fiction stuff but it actually might really come to this!

8O
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Post by Avatar »

Prevailing scientific opinion appears to be that the population is plateauing. The next couple of billion will take considerably longer, (2070-2090) after which a decline is expected.

Provided we don't wipe ourselves out or end up without a liveable climate.

--A
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Seems ridiculous, but in my part of the country where the average ambulance waiting times are longest, you can wait a hundred minutes for an ambulance if you've suffered a heart attack, but get a bottle of vodka delivered in twenty.

Or that the government tells it's departments to limit pay offers to three percent for its staff, tells the rest of us that to expect pay increases in line with inflation is unreasonable,, but issues no similar recommendations of restraint on companies hiking up their prices twenty and thirty percent in a gross example of profiteering hidden under the excuse of "increased costs". It is no coincidence that while the rest of us labour under burgeoning price increases and falling standards of living, company profits are through the roof and business is booming.

But most surprising of all is that a stupid flunky in the royal household thinks that in this day and age she can get away with steam-rollering a black activist lady about "where [she is] from?" without it resulting in a career ending hoo-haa in the national press.

The lady in question, Lady Susan Hussey, had been the late queen's lady in waiting for decades, is Prince Williams godmother and still held a prominent position in the royal household despite her 83 years, but she spaffed it all away in one ill judged round of conversation with Ngozi Fulani, a leading activist against domestic violence in the afro-carribean community.

I won't repeat the conversation verbatim, but Hussey apparently pushed aside the woman's dreadlocks to read her name-tag and then asked her where she was from. Fulani replied with her organisation's name and Hussey repeated the question saying that she wanted to know "where you are from! The conversation went back and forth with Fulani saying she was from Hackney, was British, was born here, and eventually Hussey said "Yes - but what part of Africa do your family hail from?"

Fulani replied that they didn't keep records on the boat that her people had been slaved on, but that she was British by birth, of Caribbean descent via trafficking from Africa. "Now we are getting somewhere," replied Hussey, satisfied at last that her question had been answered.

Now this woman may have been eighty three years old, but what was she thinking off! In five ill-judged minutes she blew sixty years of service out of the water. Naturally she has had to resign all duties, and the royal statements don't even mention her name. She is now simply "the individual in question".

This comes at a seriously bad time for the King and Queen. Megan, wife of Prince Harry had already drawn attention to the institutional racism of the royal household, how she had been treated (she felt) as a sort of second class individual, and the question over who made the " what color will the baby be?" comment still remains unanswered. With Harry's book due out next year and a Netflix series about to air (not to mention Meghan's veiled threats that she has more to spill) this could not be worse.

I'll bet King Charles would like to bend this stupid old biddy over and kick her privelaged arse, but absent this happening and her not being sent to the Tower, I'm sure she will have disappeared more efficiently than Lord Lucan by now. One paper said she was "not available for comment", while the Palace were "reaching out" to Fulani, to discuss her "experience" at her recent visit.

The clever money would be to give her Hussey's old job. That would show real willingness to embrace change and not just pay lip service to it. Don't expect that to happen any time soon though. No matter how 'go forward' individual members of the family are, the institution itself is stuck in the nineteenth century and could simply not survive a transition into the modern world in which it has no place.

---------0--------

For the first time in 16 years, the Dept of Justice has had to commandeer the use of 400 police cells to house prisoners from the penal system, due to gross overcrowding of our prisons.

And no wonder; with nearly 90 thousand people in prison in the UK, we incarcerate more people for longer than just about any other country in Europe. Our escape rate is lower and our suicide rate amongst prisoners higher as well.

Not statistics to be proud of and if the Sunak government had any gumph about them, the first thing they could do would be to arrange an immediate amnesty for all non violent prisoners serving short sentences in order to alleviate the immediate problem. Then to organise a comprehensive review of sentencing policy giving special consideration to advice pertaining to non-serious sentencing and investigation of alternative measures of punishment and rehabilitation.

I mean - how hard can it be? Problem is that it wouldn't sit well with the Tory electorate who don't give a shit about prisoners, the conditions in which they are incarcerated or whether they commit suicide therein. And with Cruella Braverman as Home Secretary, mmmm, can't see it happening anytime soon.
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Post by Avatar »

Yep, the "tough on crime" paradigm is apparently alive and well.

As for the Royal household thing, agreed...one might be tempted to make allowances for age in circumstances like that, but not where there is any sort of public position involved. Blatant lack of being in touch with the modern zeitgeist.

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Absolutely Av. I mean, how out of touch do you have to be to think that this would not be offensive in the extreme? Or did she simply not care? Perhaps having spent a life within that milieu, shielded from repercussion of this kind of insensitivity, she simply didn't get that it would come back and bite her on the arse? But more significantly, I think that she was unintentionally throwing a spotlight on the type of thinking that pervades the whole institution - the palace households - and a mindset that they have just inherited from a distant era that no longer pertains in the wider population. She probably just didn't get that she could no longer be protected by a wall of deference to the organisation she is part of.

---------0-------

While I'm here, I just want to mention a conversation I overheard in a bookshop yesterday in which a guy was saying that he'd been to an open day fair for electric vehicle testing in which he'd been able to take a new electric Jaguar out for a drive and had been really impressed by its performance.

He enquired about the battery life and was told that it was guaranteed for retention of seventy percent of full charging capacity remaining after eight years. After this it had no guarantee, but he could reasonably expect the battery to last in the order of two years more, giving a total life of around ten years.

The crunch came however when he asked about the replacement battery cost, and was told that it would cost him twenty seven thousand ponds to replace.

Now assuming that this is more expensive than the average electric car battery - let's say double the price - that would still leave most electric vehicles pretty much valueless after just one battery cycle. Who would buy a vehicle for which they could expect a bill running into thousands of pounds within a few years of purchasing it? So where our current vehicles can reasonably last up to fifteen or twenty years, with value decreasing as they move down the chain of purchasing power of buyers, these vehicles go effectively straight to the scrapheap - with the attendant polluting cost of continual replacement.

Fair to say that none but the wealthiest in our societies will be able to continue driving at these exorbitant costs of doing so, and one cannot but wonder if this is not the underlying intention behind the shift to electric?

Put this together with the shift toward digital currency (which our governments find much to be desired) and the control of how and where we are actually allowed to spend our money that could be brought in alongside such a move, and you really do begin to wonder what kind of a world it is toward which we are slouching?
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....and the glory of the world becomes less than it was....
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Post by Avatar »

Not to mention the rising cost of electricity, or the ongoing uncertainty as to the availability of supply... :D

Electric cars are apparently selling (relatively) well here, which amazes me given that we've pretty much have a guaranteed 4-6 hours a day without electricity almost daily since August... :D

--A
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Mass adoption and lower cost is a vicious circle with no beginning.
Mass adoption requires lower costs. Lower costs requires mass adoption.

This is why you're a hero for the cause if you can afford to be an early adopter.
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Post by peter »

Ouch!

That was a pretty low blow on the part of Harry and Meghan, releasing their promotional trailer for their new 'tell all' series on Netflix, just as big brother William accompanied by wife Kate were preparing to be feted by the New York glitterati (is that a word?) at some green awards or something.

The Ngozi Fulani story could not have come at a better time for the Sussex's (that's Harry and Meghan for those who get confused by the titles; Kate and William used to be the Cambridge's but are now the Wales's :? ).....what with the series coming up and Harry's book in the offing, a good race related royal scandal was absolutely the ticket and bob's your uncle, Lady Hussey opened her mouth and stuck her great size nine into it.

Not being slow to spot an opportunity, the bosses at Netflix got immediately to work and chucked out their promotional video in which the now American ex royals are seen wallowing in self pity about how tough their lot has been (or in nauseating clinches of hyper sentimental soft focus black and white shots - no pun intended). And to put the icing on the cake it just happened to coincide with a visit across the pond by the couple's arch rivals, royal couple William and Kate to give an award at the Prince's Earthshot environmental charity function (good name I suppose, the earth being shot and all), the wind and glamour of which could be brushed away like so much glitter from the clobber of the real couple of the day - the throwback hippies (barefooted Harry playing his guitar to lovestruck Meghan sitting on the leaves under the tree) for whom Scott Mackenzie's If you're going to San Francisco never seems to have ended.... don't forget to put some flowers in your hair Meghan) and to whom life has been so unfair.

Yes, it's funny how the whole thing seems to be taking on a life of its own, blossoming out from that initial conversation between Ngozi Fulani (real name Martha or something from Walthamstow) and Lady Susan Hussey. Now another fellow has come forward saying he too was given the third degree by his hosts about his origins. I suppose, given the publicity that Fulani is seemingly enjoying of a sudden - her name is on every paper in the country, her face on every TV channel - it was inevitable that someone else would want a bit of the action as well. If you get your chance at your fifteen minutes in this society, then it can be a very lucrative quarter of an hour, and I for one am not going to blame you for grabbing it.

But its turning into a circus so let's see it for the entertainment it is. And let's also not forget, while the Sussex's milk it for the bucks it is worth in free promotion to their pursuit of mullah, that the serious issue of institutionalised racism sits at its heart - and its a very real issue.

But who are you kidding Peter? Full disclosure - I'm in it for the entertainment (to my shame). And alas, what's more...... so, I suspect, are you!
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....and the glory of the world becomes less than it was....
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It's a small thing, but if you look at the photo of Prince William shaking hands with Joe Biden at the JFK library and museum yesterday, you will noe that as the President gives a conventional one handed shake William clasps his hand using both of his own.

Now I don't know whether the Prince intended this or not, but it gives the immediate impression of himself as being the 'leading' participant in the meeting with Biden looking like he occupies a subordinate position in the hierarchy of power to which both, in their own ways, belong.

But the Prince's intention notwithstanding, the use of this clasp is known to be a subtle signal in the game of oneupmanship that leaders often play with each other (the hand in the middle of the back, ushering an accompanying individual through a door first is another) and I cannot believe that William did not know this. As such it was a stupid thing to do, and while the Prince was probably just trying to give an informality to the meeting, a gesture of affection for the old man if you will, he should have recognised the Presidential authority and dignity and avoided the gesture in the cause of good manners if nothing more.

President Biden is not a doddering geriatric to be patronised by such gestures; he is the world's most powerful man who leads the largest free nation on earth. He far surpasses William in importance and did not deserve such an immature slight (if William was playing the oneupmanship game). If it was a mistaken gesture of affection then William should have known better and should be advised to avoid such gestures in future.

--------------0--------------

The disturbances in China following the tragic fire in which lives were lost, purportedly as a consequence of people being locked down in their homes and literally unable to escape from the burning building, seem to have died down.

The policing of the gatherings, while significant and vigorous, did not involve quite the level of heavy handed approach that it might have - perhaps unsurprisingly given the presence of the world media in which all eyes were on the events and how they would be dealt with.

And let's face it - they didn't need to be.

Chinese state surveillance of the population is sufficiently advanced - probably the most so in the world - that all or most of the participants would be recognisable via facial recognition technology and other means, such that all that would be required would be to wait until they return to their homes and then to mop them up piecemeal at a later point. What will happen to such unfortunate individuals as to suffer this fate is anybody's guess.

As such, and as noted by Peter Hitchens yesterday, we should bow in respect to the truly incredible bravery of those who chose to step forward in defiance against their oppressive masters. In doing so, they take risks that we can barely contemplate, and provide us with an abject lesson in the importance of maintaining vigilance against any such moves toward authoritarianism (and they are numerous) in our own state.

-----------0----------

So Sajid Javid is stepping down from politics before the next election. No surprise there really: he has probably been as high as he is ever going to get, having held both the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary roles, and given that he has failed twice in his leadership bids, it seems that there is not really anywhere else that he could go with it.

Except of course to return to the backbenches to serve the people that voted him in as their representative - the actual role that is supposed to be the reason that people enter politics in the first place. But perish the thought that Javid's role should be so parochial eh? Surely he was meant for greater things that looking after the wellbeing of a few tens of thousands of people and forming the laws upon which the entire nation is governed? Such small fry as this is going to hold little appeal to one of such lofty ambition as 'the Saj'.

To this end he has, according to today's FT, been scouting around, putting out the feelers for somewhere where he might be paid a in wheelbarrows full of cash for a few hours work a month........ sorry - read that bit wrong....... where he might deploy his skills for doing good across a wider stage, and has been involved in talks with a big investment house run, as coincidence would have it, by the brother of ex Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls. Also on the books of said company is ex PM Gordon Brown, so if he does get on board, it will seem almost like home from home for him.

And in fact, this is the case for large numbers of our elite politicians. They mix with the same people that they went to school with, to Oxbridge with, in the bars and lobby's of the Commons and the Lords, and finally in the boardrooms of the most powerful companies on the globe. The elite club of wealth and privilege that see's them through from start to finish - the club that once you're in you're in, and that has been enjoyed by generations of elitist families and doyens of 'the system' before you. Because the game goes on. Whether it is across the dinning table at Eton, the debating chamber of the Oxford Union or indeed the House of Commons, or in the clubs of St. James and on the grouse moors of Glenmorran, the company is the same, the network of connection all pervasive and encompassing, and the system as rock solid as ever it was.

For all our so called democracy and egalitarianism, we have not changed a jot or a tittle, and the reins of power are as firmly held in the hands of a small number of the elite as ever they were.
The truth is a Lion and does not need protection. Once free it will look after itself.

....and the glory of the world becomes less than it was....
'Have we not served you well'
'Of course - you know you have.'
'Then let it end.'

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One aspect of the forthcoming nurses strike at least gels with me.

As I sit typing this, I am actually waiting to get up and take my wife to work. I'm doing this because thanks to a ruling that removed her 'right' to park free of charge in the hospital carpark where she works, it is now no longer feasible for her to drive herself. It's true that she can buy a pass (which ain't cheap) that allows her to park in a part of the larger hospital carpark that is some distance away from the main part of the building where she works, but it's about a ten minute walk which, in my part of the country where it rains a lot, rather defeats the object.

One of the demands of the current industrial action is to apparently deal with this situation, and is one area where it is reported that agreement might be reached.

Well okay, it's not the nineteen percent wage rise that the unions have asked for (not nearly as excessive as it seems because it addresses years of failure of wages to keep up with inflation, not just the recent surge) but it would at least be something.

I noted yesterday that the Times had been coopted on board to begin the process of turning public feeling against the nurses. They ran a headline saying that nurses would walk out of A&E departments and cancer treatments in the run up to Christmas. Told you that was coming, and sure enough the Murdoch papers can be relied upon to step up and do the government's dirty work for them.

(Also read that the government are considering extending the powers of pharmacists to prescribe as part of the armoury of dealing with the disputes within the NHS. This veiled threat to the doctors grip on power to prescribe (the source of any power in society they have at all, in actuality) will send shivers up their back and might well make them more compliant in negotiations, but I believe it would be a really good move. It would relieve pressure on the doctor's appointment system no end with countless millions of visits becoming unnecessary. There's only one thing that doctors hate more than being needed by people - that's not being needed by people.)

--------0--------

As I get older, I seem to be developing an OCD type condition in which I no longer trust my memory to have done certain things like locking doors, turning off taps (even the car engine) and putting out lights.

I find myself being forced to get out of bed to go and check something that I absolutely know I have done, simply because I have thought about it. If I don't it will bug me until I go and check, and so I might as well go do it immediately.

It tends to be with things I have previously made a mistake on. A case in point would be turning off and locking the car. Modern cars no longer require you to actually lock them manually - you simply walk away. Also the engines run so quietly that they are almost silent. Thus it was that, walking away from my parked car one day, I suddenly - almost unconsciously - twigged that something was different..... not right. Turning back to the car I discovered that the engine was still running. I'd simply forgotten to push the button that turns the engine off. The electronic key was in my pocket anyway, so no keys to remove, and the engine running nearly silently. So away I'd gone, blithely unaware until that feeling of unease, that the car was still running. From that day forward I have needed to really consciously make myself think and remember that I've turned the car off, or it will bug me mercilessly until I go and check.

I've done similar things with turning off taps. I discovered a tap running one day - I'd simply forgotten to turn it off. Now I obsessively check taps.

This stuff doesn't bother me. It is what it is and I can ritualise it to the point where I can deal with it. But it's interesting that it's waited until so late in life before manifesting itself. After a life of battling different neuroses I'd thought I'd scraped the pot, but it seems that my inner demons can always concoct something new to scourge me with.

Anyway got to rush. Need to go check the car quickly!

;)
The truth is a Lion and does not need protection. Once free it will look after itself.

....and the glory of the world becomes less than it was....
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'Of course - you know you have.'
'Then let it end.'

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Post by wayfriend »

Peter,

People who study these things have discovered one simple trick (to use an overused phrase) to help with these things.

Say it out loud.

When you lock the doors, say "The doors are locked." Similarly, "The taps are off." Etc.

Out loud. Very audibly.

Your mind has a greater ability to remember what it hears than almost anything else. Use the power of your auditory memory.

You'll rest much easier I feel certain. It works for me.
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Good advice Wayfriend - I'll give it a try! (Trouble is, I'll probably forget that I've said it and then lie awake thinking about that. Still, at least I'll be able to rectify that without getting out of bed! ;) )

I see that the FT has got another Brexit headline today. The paper is scathing about the consequences of the fatal move of leaving the EU (behind the scenes at least) and today's story pertains to Rishi Sunak having used 'old cash' as it were, to fund a much vaunted 1.4 billion pound Brexit opportunities scheme when he was chancellor. Well what do you expect - slight of hand has been this government's modus operandi for years now.

The FT recently posted an analysis of the cost of Brexit to the economy on YouTube (sobering watching if you haven't seen it) and this is just a part of the growing realisation in the South East and the country more broadly of what we have done. It might be my algorithm as it were, but more and more YouTube video are appearing from different sources showing polls and interviews with the public which indicate a deep disappointment (if not anger) at what our exit has (not) achieved. Many feature interviews with leave voters who are adamant that if voting again today, they would vote to remain.

It didn't make the headlines it should have, but a few days ago the Paris stock exchange took over from the London as the biggest trading hub in Europe. We have enjoyed this accolade for many years now - not to mention the tax related fruits thereof - and to see us knocked off the perch is a significant psychological blow if nothing else. But it isn't a case of nothing else though: we have fallen off because of a leaching effect of trade towards the EU, as investment houses recognise the wisdom of doing their business within the actual block where most of the financial activity of companies is cantered. Financial services represents something like seventy percent of our total economic activity and the loss or damage to this sector cannot be understated.

And this is just one example. The recent OBR forecast of a four percent hit to growth by Brexit (as much as one percent a year, ongoing) is further spreading the realisation of our having been the turkey that voted for Christmas. And the message is starting to get through.

But I wonder how much of the public actually get the true background of where this crushingly bad move was formed and why? The answer, if you would believe the account given in the book Chums by author and journalist Simon Kuper, was in the halls and dorms of Eton and Oxford University. It was there that the rising stars of Brexit, the Johnson's the Rees-Mogg's, the Gove's (although not Eton in his case - just Oxford) first came up with the notion that the EU, and particularly the Maastricht Treaty as signed by John Major, would userp something that was rightfully theirs; the ability to rule their own country as their parents and parents before them had, in unbroken perpetuity and without outside constraints impeding the decisions that they would choose to make.

Because the attitude fostered in these elite and rarified places was that the inhabitants therein were the natural class to be holding the reins of power within this country. It was their right to be in the driving seat within the confines of Great Britain (with the emphasis on the Great) and the EU in general and the Maastricht Treaty in particular, was a slap in the face of that right.

Now all of this might be so much sour grapes from a remainer as it were (could actually be) but for the fact that Kuper was himself there at the time of the rise (and it might be better to say reign) of this cohort. Because Johnson, Mogg, Cameron and latterly Gove, were the stars of Oxford. They bestrode it like Collosi, the Union voted them to its leadership, they featured in all of the University's papers and their rise to political greatness via in most cases the creative cauldron of Grub Street was absolutely assured. It was known and accepted, in the Oxford Union debating society, the University at large and even as far back as the dining rooms of Eton, that these were the people who would rule the roost in the future. And the idea that they would kowtow to Europe was anathema to them. They were the cream and the rules did not apply to them.

But to some extent they were not yet forged into the steel that would fall on the European neck. They had seen their natural party, the Conservatives, flourish under Thatcher and they were essentially Thatcherite in their thinking - but it took the work of an unknown Oxford undergraduate, Daniel Hannan, to actually infuse them with the idea that leaving the European Union could actually be achieved.

Hannan must have been a remarkable character. From his undergraduate study, it seems, he forayed out into Westminster and the halls of power in London, recruiting and convincing, putting together the groupings and collections of individuals, both already politically active and at the (Oxford) student level, that would become the organisations we know as UKIP, the ERG, the Campaign for an Independent UK (which actually morphed into UKIP). It was Hannan who just about singly took the unformed desires of the Johnson, Mogg cohort - the Kings of the Union (Oxford that is) - and moulded their affront at the idea of European userpment of the power that was naturally theirs, into the unstoppable force that became Brexit.

And so there you have it. Brexit was not about what was best for the country, what was best for you and me and our children yet to be born. It was an extension of the playing fields of Eton, the cause of the ruling caste who were in need of a 'great cause' at a time when all the great causes seemed to have been fought for and won. No more European battlefields upon which to win honour, Thatcherism had got its way and the futures of the monied were assured (even the Labour Party had become an extension of the Tories) - all was going swimmingly except, except, except......

The dirty necked French and the (would you believe it) defeated Germans were threatening to tell us what we could and could not do with our own country! Now this would never do - never do at all!
The truth is a Lion and does not need protection. Once free it will look after itself.

....and the glory of the world becomes less than it was....
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'Of course - you know you have.'
'Then let it end.'

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Post by peter »

No one wants to see the 'character' of the area they live in change. Whether you have moved to an area or are a local by birth or long term residency, you get used to what you see around you, become familiar and comfortable with it, and for most people except those in the most deprived and run-down of areas, the idea of change is unsettling.

But it is a given that upcoming generations are going to need places to live if they are not to live cheek by jowl on top of their parents in over accommodated households. This and rising population which results from immigration will perforce demand that new housing is constructed - and at rates far higher than we have managed to date.

I've spoken before about the need for 'blue sky thinking' when it comes to housing; it's such an important component of a stable society, that of security of abode, that it cannot be left to the whims of the market to dictate either policy or the practical aspects of getting houses constructed.

Which is why Sunak's decision to capitulate to his backbench MPs and drop the manifesto targets of 300,000 new homes per year is so important. Instead, Sunak and Gove, his housing minister, will place more flexible targets in the hands of local authorities who will be able to reduce numbers in any given area if they believe that the building programme would "significantly change the character of an area".

Well of course the building of a significant number of houses is going to bring about significant changes to an area. There will be more people for starters. But the compromise, brought about in large part as a result of Sunak's weakness as a PM - his inability to stand up to his backbenchers, who in turn are afraid of their own seats being lost if they upset their constituents - is a recipe for nimbyism. Against such a backdrop no houses will be built at all.

Calculation of the required housing needs of a given area going forward is no easy thing; there are many variables and factors to balance, but what is clearly known is that to date we have singularly failed to meet the existing need, never mind that of the future. Sunak and Give have bottled it in their failure to meet their backbenchers head on. The decision they have made is a kicking of the can down the road that will leave thousands of young families unable to make that crucial step in becoming independent autonomous family units in our society, that of moving into the home that will form the central point of their lives in the decades going forward.

---------0--------

The loss of a child is a terrible thing. That eight children should now have died as a result of scarlet fever almost beggars belief, but it is so. The streptococcus A bacteria that causes the illness is only rarely the cause of serious disease and rarely ever fatal. It responds well to simple antibiotic therapy and should never be a source of major public health concern.

The sudden spike in deaths that we are seeing - still very small in terms of the total number of cases overall - is said to be a result of the fall in natural acquired immunity as a result of locking down children and reducing their mixing with other kids during the two years of the pandemic. It is mixing that allows kids to maintain an adequate level of acquired resistance to these diseases, and in the absence of continual exposure this resistance wanes ever further to the point where normally mild disease causing organisms become more dangerous.

But, but but......

In typical fashion the government seems to be overreacting to the threat in its advice to gp's who encounter the disease. Against all consideration of the policy of limiting antibiotic prescription on the basis of controlling the development of resistance against this mainstay of our therapeutic armoury, the government are advising the en masse prescription of antibiotics to whole cohorts of children in classes where a case has occurred.

Let's be clear. The mass prescription of antibiotics as a preventative measure rather than a treatment for existing disease goes against every grain of what we are trying to achieve in terms of slowing the development of resistance. The use of incorporated antibiotics in pig and poultry feedstuffs (in order to allow them to be kept at completely unnatural levels of stocking density) is significantly responsible for the development of much of the resistance that we currently see, and in the case of the children in our primary schools is completely unwarranted. Not only are the children not overcrowded to the point where this step could actually be required, the improper and presumptive use of the drugs could actively hinder their future usefulness should a child go on to contract the bacteria in the severity of which demands actual antibiotic therapy be given.

Put simply, each time an antibiotic is used, it will progressively leave a residual number of bacteria behind that have greater powers to evade the killing action of that antibiotic. It is for this reason that we are told always to complete a course of antibiotics - in order to minimise the number of bacteria left alive. Those bacteria left alive form the breeding stock (if you like) from which the new bacterial generation will come - and all individuals in this generation will be of the higher resistance levels to the antibiotic that their 'parents' possessed. In this way resistance develops.

So no. The blanket prescription of antibiotics to whole classes or schools is absolutely not what is required here. It is a gimmick, a public relations exercise the consequences of which will do nothing to alleviate the risk to our children from this disease. The absolute correct path here should be to concentrate on diagnosis of infection where it exists and then apply the standard symptomatic prescription of antibiotics where the indications are that they are required.

You'd think that common sense would tell our governors this, but no. They are so bound up in their need to be seen to be doing something, of making grand gestures, that all such sense fly's out of the window. Instead they would rather jettison the entire received wisdom of the medical community to date in a display of "look at us - we've got this!".

It is but a small version of the covid debacle, from which it would seem that our government has learned nothing.

--------------0-------------

Just an interesting little addition to yesterday's post about the origins of Brexit and the institutionalised bias in our society towards an entrenched elite.

The Brexit camps of the referendum could be crudely separated into two, often opposed but working towards a common goal, camps.

The 'skinhead' camp which was all about immigration and sovereignty, as represented by Farage and Arron Banks, and the 'toffs' camp, about sovereignty, maintaining control of what they saw as their own fiefdom, in their own interest, and uncoupling of the financial markets from the restrictive constraints of European law - the creation of a tiger economy like wild west for investment where anything goes and the potential for profit (irrespective of the consequences to lesser mortals) was limitless.

In his book Chums which I referee to above, Kuper quotes Daniel Hannan (an arch brexiteer who is probably up there with Farage himself in terms of the 'blame' for Brexit having occurred) as saying the following about Farage.
I think Farage's ambition was to emerge as a leading politician from the referendum campaign, and he was much more focused on that than on the outcome of the referendum, which was a matter of surprisingly little interest to him.
Given that Farage is still involved with the Reform UK party which seems to be garnering some fall-off support from the ailing Tories, and he himself has intimated that he might stand for parliament in the next general election, I'd say that nothing has changed.

Another possibility is that he will do what he did last time (not that it did him much good) and not stand MPs in the seats where Tory support was marginal, only in those where the Labour vote needed splitting in order to pass those seats to the Tories. But this time he would probably negotiate better terms for himself in respect of securing a cabinet position or some other mainstream political position within parliament proper (perhaps a Lordship?). He's been left out in the cold by the Toffs to whom he delivered Brexit too many times for him to make the same mistakes again.
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Today is the day for the first episode of the Sussex's Netflix series to land, and I have no doubt that it will attract high viewing figures both in the UK and the USA.

From what I can gather, attitudes toward the wayward couple are much more positive in the States than in the UK, where feeling against the couple (particularly Meghan) are running high. That is at least if you follow the lead of the printed media in this (and most people who are interested seem to).

But this is not to say that the Palace are getting things all their own way. King Charles was 'egged' yesterday for the second time in a few weeks, as he conducted one of his walkabouts. I'm not sure what the egg thrower was so incensed about; why he felt that the King would be improved by a bit of egg on his face, and I don't suppose we'll ever know. It might have been about the recent scandal involving Lady Hussey's inappropriate comments to a guest in the Palace, but I can't see that Charles can really be blamed for that. He might exist in a milieu where racism is an undercurrent, never openly spoken, but underlying the thinking of the establishment, but there is no evidence that he personally buys into this type of thinking.

Then again, there was and remains much anger over the death of Princess Diana. I have spoken to people in the shop who are bitter in the extreme at the way that they perceive she was treated; she was, they believe, the 'peoples princess' and was taken (some still feel deliberately) from them by a cold and unfeeling institution, whose aim was to destroy her following the moment from which she stepped out of line. Perhaps this act was a throwback to this, brought back to mind by the current Harry and Meghan coverage. Or perhaps it's simply anger for a perceived belief in the poor way the latter have been treated. Opinions are polarised on the couple in a fairly extreme way (where they exist) and the egg incident could be simply a reflection of 'the other side' getting a bit of payback.

Truth is, we will probably never know. These incidents get coverage - but only at a pretty minimal level. A few small headlines in the morning press and then nothing. You rarely hear about the convictions that follow or get any background on the reasons behind the event. Perish the thought that people should actually start thinking, considering whether the King might deserve to have an egg lobbed in his direction. Not I hasten to add my position; I have time for King Charles and have always thought he has had a pretty raw deal in life, for all his advantages. But certainly the Palace and establishment more generally would prefer it if events like this were reported and then disappear from the public discourse pretty quickly. Generally better from their point of view if the media don't hang about picking over the bones of it - and the media is happy enough to comply.

But going back to the Netflix series, my personal feeling - and from what evidence I can glean from the trailers - is that it will be a blend of schmaltzy sentimental love schtick and peevish resentment at the 'unfairness' with which they feel that they have been treated. There will be a degree of viciousness about it too - there has to be in order to satisfy their paymasters that they are getting value for money - and some bean spilling as well. But strung out over six episodes, I can't see it being anything but boring. What spicy nuggets are in there will be far apart and separated by long periods of drivel - stuff that I personally could not be bothered to watch. The Sussex's have no recourse to making money other than via tittle tattle and exposing the indiscretions of the royal household (always of fascination to the plebs) and they are making full use of it. Is Meghan the driver and Harry the weak participant being pulled along by her wake? Who knows. But it is damaging stuff and could really do for the royal's in the long term. Harry and Meghan could really turn out to be the nemesis of the family institution from whence he comes.

And it is going to be big news. Tomorrow the papers will be full of it, and those of the days ahead. It's going to be rocky road in royal town over the next few days and no mistake!

Just as an aside, my wife made the point of asking yesterday, if Harry and Meghan were finding the life and treatment they were receiving from the palace so terrible, why when they first expressed a desire to remove themselves from the limelight, did they suggest a 'six month on, six month off' rotation? They initially wanted to do six months of royal stuff, followed by six months in the USA living a non-royal life and pursuing other interests. If things were so bad why would they do this? Why not go for the clean break? It sounds suspiciously like wanting to have your cake and to eat it. Is what we are seeing now just sour grapes because that particular option was denied to them? Or perhaps this is the only recourse they had left to them. Meghan's failing career as an actress was not going to bring in the big mullah, so all that was left was ever more vituperative and revelatory exposes of the iniquity of the royal institution. Perhaps they actually hate what they have been forced into doing in order to access the hundreds of millions they require to perpetuate the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed. Who knows - but the consequences either way could be seismic for the UK.

I said in an earlier post that this was entertainment. But is it? Or is it history being played out on a grand scale? Or even both? Perhaps it is the ultimate expression of postmodernism; a fusion of history as entertainment. Truth via media, and invigilated by a company who were never going to be satisfied by their very costly investment presenting nothing but self-serving promotions around a barefooted lifestyle of ersatz simplicity and high end consumerism.
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Details are a bit sketchy, but details of the odd story of some kind of plot to overthrow the German government are emerging, masterminded we are told by Heinrich VIll Prince of Reuss.

This 71 year old scion of some obscure line of German aristocracy seems to have been some kind of conspiracy nut, steeped in beliefs about world wide plot which orchestrates things like the ousting of Donald Trump and the establishment of a 'new world order'.

There seems to be some kind of connection with the far right Reichsburger group (Citizens of the Reich) who believe that the postwar German government is a fake construct of the victorious Allies following WW2. Some 35 conspirators were arrested and it is claimed (though not yet I believe demonstrated) that the plotters had been in contact with agents, possibly within the Russian state - a claim which the Kremlin has denied.

The organisers were apparently inspired by the events on Capital Hill following the defeat of Trump in the last US election, but no doubt had something similar to that which occurred during the Wilson era in the UK (in which the Earl 'Dickie' Mountbatten was approached by a cabal of press and business magnates, with the idea that he lead a coup against the British government) in mind as well.

Clearly the German authorities took this plot seriously: some 3000 officers were involved in raids on over 100 properties extending across Germany, Austria and even as far away as Italy. The group had been stockpiling weaponry and intended upon a violent assault on the Reichstag in which they accepted that there would be loss of life.

It's difficult to know what to make of stories such as these, but the fact that such groups can have confidence that sufficient support would exist within the society to countenance such actions is worrying in itself. That right wing ideology can have such a foothold as to be able to organise itself to this degree - and in Germany of all places - almost beggars belief, but here we are. Clearly something is going deeply wrong with the direction of European society, politics, and even the general mindset of the people. The rise of the AfD, Organ in Hungary, even Brexit in the UK are all examples of a shift in perspective, a move away from the outward looking internationalist consensus of post war politics, and toward a more fervently nationalist position, inward looking and less welcoming of outside influence.

The story seems almost quaint in it's ludicrously, almost dad's armyish way, but it isn't. Anything but. It is a stark reminder of just how fragile the hold on power is, of even the most robust of democratically elected polities. The seizing of a few pieces of key infrastructure, the taking and holding of a small number of broadcasting outlets, just a small degree of support from within the armed forces hierarchy, and the job is done.

Was this the subject of future 'carry on' style bungling comedies (ala the UKIP political party dramas, as exemplified by the unfortunately named secretary 'Roger Bird' who had to resign because of an inappropriate advance to a female member of the party) or was this something more sinister. You can take your choice really - I'd thought to present it as the former when first deciding to post on it - but upon thinking about it I realised exactly why the German police and intelligence services took it so seriously. This took planning and forethought. It wasn't the bungling attempt of some group of fantasist fanatics. It was a carefully crafted operation by a grouping confident that via a small precision strike they could seize the reins of power and in short order mobilise sufficient popular support to hold on to them. And who knows - they may have been right? So divided have we become that who among us can truly say that he knows anymore what his neighbour might be thinking.

No. There was nothing funny in this story. Nothing funny at all.

---------0---------

And talking about the armed forces, are you entirely comfortable with the idea of the army being used to break strikes voted for and mandated thereby, by the membership of unionised workers, because I freely confess I have reservations.

In a month of almost continual strikes - in what one paper today calls a general strike in all but name - the government is increasingly falling back on contingency plans that involve mobilising the army to double as border force officers, as ambulance drivers, as fire brigade workers.

And in today's papers it is reported that the army bosses are themselves not happy about it. Members of the armed forces are famously not allowed to strike and have to turn their hands to whatever task the government decides they should, pretty much without question. But this morning, army chiefs have said that there is something decidedly 'off' about using men and women, denied the right to strike to loose their Christmas breaks with their families, to cover for people who are already earning significantly more than they are themselves (an army private gets around twenty one thousand ponds per year, compared to an ambulance drivers thirty thousand).

I get this - but what the army bigwigs have not said is whether they think that this is an appropriate use of our forces personnel. To be effectively used as a tool within the government arsenal, and in support of breaking the democratic right to strike of their fellow citizens (or if not their right, then at least the effectiveness of that action).

I don't know what the army lads and lasses think about this themselves; they are reportedly more concerned about loosing their Christmas's at home - and perfectly fairly, but to me personally, the whole thing doesn't pass the sniff-test. I think the role of our armed forces is to protect our nation against outside threats, not to be used as a political tool in the hands of a government bent on thwarting the collective action of a workforce that has had enough. If I was a soldier I'd be unhappy to be used like this, Christmas or otherwise. And if it were forced on me, I'd be thinking very hard about that proscription of my personal right to strike - and about the demeaningly small recompense that I was being given in return for being prepared to lay down my life for my country as well.
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Post by wayfriend »

peter wrote:the fact that such groups can have confidence that sufficient support would exist within the society to countenance such actions is worrying in itself.
I feel certain that, looking at the world through the tinted walls of their information bubble, they understood that everyone would agree with them.
peter wrote:are you entirely comfortable with the idea of the army being used to break strikes
People quickly forget that unions were literally beaten up by their boss's thugs. Union disputes were violent. This resulted in a need for physical protection and counter-intimidation that shapes unions to this day. Sending in the army is just the old ways looking new.
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On the first wayfriend, I'm ashamed to say that in the UK there is probably a good going contingent of the populace who would. The desire to fall back into the arms of authoritarian responsibility as opposed to personal is always present. Easier to be told by 'strong leadership' how to live, how to think, than to take the difficult decisions yourself. The far right has always lent toward this kind of heavy handed control and the British relationship with democracy is tenuous at best and always has been. We have a peculiar amalgam of democracy absorbed within the hierarchical system that (supposedly) preceeded it - as though the premise was accepted, but then forgotten about as business carried on as usual. It's unique to us and less than optimal to say the least. The desire of the far right to see the (what they describe as) 'woke' agenda of modern society - what they see as political correctness gone mad - put back in It's box is a big factor as well. A good stint under a solid conservative (small c) dictatorship (manly and military in nature) would, in their eyes, do us no harm. It's the kind of thinking that is comfortable with sending immigrants and asylum seekers off to Rwanda.

On the second (and not so far from the first in actual fact), the sight of a few union skulls falling under the batons of the military (or mobilised police) is one that we have seen before in this country, and the media will do everything in its power to ensure that the public see them (the unions) as public enemy number one in the coming weeks. Few people remember that were it not for the unions we'd still be living in the rookeries of Victorian times and our children would still be going up chimneys. (This might be a bit of an exaggeration, but it is a fact that many of the people who will be most vocal in the months ahead about the unions will themselves be working for salaries and in conditions that they have only the same unions to thank for.)

But, moving on, I slept through the first two episodes of Harry and Meghan yesterday, but from what I can gather it was pretty predictable stuff. There has been an equally predictable howl of anguish about "the Queen's legacy!" and the perfidious royal renegade but nothing of real substance. There has been little response from the royal household itself, other than to deny the disclaimer at the start of the program that they were approached for a response. The Palace say that they were approached by an unknown third party who's identity they could not verify and got no response from netflix itself on the question, when they attempted to clarify the matter. From their side, I think the clever money is to say as little as possible. There is nothing really new emerging - no spilling the beans on which royal (William or Charles one assumes) questioned "what colour" the baby would be - and any comments are just going to add fuel to the fire of the media frenzy surrounding the issue. The less said, the sooner the media will get bored and move on.

The big criticism of the media in respect of the Queen's legacy seems to center around a comment that Harry made that the Commonwealth was effectively Empire mark 2.0. Also the observation that Britain has it's own "deep South " - a reference to slavery in the West Indies - an institution that the Royal family took its own fair share of benefit from. This is indeed pretty incendiary stuff from a royal on a subject that the Palace would much rather people didn't spend too much time thinking about, and to get an admission of this skeleton in the closet from a royal mouth is a rare event indeed, and could have ramifications.

But on a scale of 1 to 10, the documentary series could have been much worse. There is a fear that the next 3 episodes, screening in a week's time, could get into much darker waters, but again there is doubt that anything too new or revelatory will be forthcoming. More a case of the pair complaining about their treatment than any concrete examples of racism or cruelty that we do not already know about. Personally I suspect that much of what the couple feel they have experienced does have a basis in fact. But at what point was it ever not going to be so? An institution like the royal household is never going to drop its antiquated views on race and class overnight and it was a given that Meghan would feel the cold side of this. My God, Diana Spencer (as was) came from one of the highest aristocratic families in the country and even she was subjected to the belittling disdain, the arrogant formality that is never dropped, even in private, between members of the family and the household (and indeed often between family members themselves). This formality can be a brutal weapon if handled skillfully and at what point could Meghan have ever countered that. She needed not to be in amongst that, and taken from that point of view, the couple's departure and the subsequent break down in relationship were a foregone conclusion.

So all in all, the Palace will not be too concerned with what has been aired to date. As I said, next week could be more sticky as the latter stages of the Buckingham Palace story are recounted, but it will still probably be okay. More worrying it is felt, might be the forthcoming book by Prince Harry, in which his revelations and deeper feeling about his whole life story might be vented. There are subject areas there which even I shy away from going into, but who knows - these things could not but have had a big impact on his life and I think, as a sensitive individual, a damaging one. That he is carrying a huge psychological burden cannot be doubted and I for one, while in no way taking anything away from his estranged family, who I believe to be equally damaged, hope he finds love and happiness along with strength to bear his crosses, in a future alongside his much maligned wife.

Taken at a human level the unfolding story of our monarchy is a tragedy from which none of its members return unscathed.
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peter wrote:The desire to fall back into the arms of authoritarian responsibility as opposed to personal is always present. Easier to be told by 'strong leadership' how to live, how to think, than to take the difficult decisions yourself.
As I see it, you choose authoritarian when democracy isn't leading to the ends you desire. In other words, it's a desire for minority rule, coincidently - not! - the minority you happen to be in. Which means it's ultimately about oppressing those you feel aren't being sufficiently oppressed.
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True wayfriend, but isn't it true that even when democracy is functioning in its intended manner it still disenfranchises large proportions of the population.

Taking our own case, in our last election something less than a third of registered voters actually voted Tory, and this was on a decent sized turnout compared to normal. Yet this resulted in an eighty seat majority for the party - a situation that gives the incumbent PM almost unlimited power as long as he can command his backbenchers (and there lies our current man's rub).

But even this thirty percent of the registered vote is a much smaller percentage of the population as a whole, so even functioning at best, the majority always find themselves under the will of the minority.

I think our system is worse than the US one in this respect, but I'd hazard a guess that it's still the case even on your side of the pond.

But this notwithstanding, I get that this is not so much what we are talking about here, but rather the seizing of power by its wresting away from the lawful holders by force.

And on topic, PM Sunak yesterday doubled down on his committed intention of using the armed forces in support of the areas of public service effected by the strikes. He explicitly used the fact of servicemen and women loosing their Christmas's as an emotional lever to influence public opinion away from support of the unions. This and the focus on the disruption that the strikes will cause is being used as the modus operandi of the government and the oligarch controlled media, to undermine support for the strikers.

It's all about how people's travel plans will be disrupted over Christmas, how much mail is backlogged and how late deliveries will be, how many operations will be cancelled and how long ambulance waiting times will be. Not one inch of space, one minute of airtime is being given to why this might be happening.

But the truth of the matter is that choose whatever area of public service you look at, speak to the workers and you hear demoralised people talking about how their services have been stripped to the bone over a decade. How more and more has been asked of them for less and less return. How the stress induced illnesses of their coworkers have gone through the roof, how their terms of employment have been eroded and how their jobs have been made undoable by successive years of stripping back of investment.

I saw a rare instance of a journalist on TV the other day (a guy called Robert Preston, who is a mainstream political commentator in the UK) actually saying that the offers being made by the bosses that run the services (offers essentially controlled by their political masters in the government) were not ones that were ever feasibly going to be acceptable to any union negotiators. The offers, irrespective of how they could be presented in the media, upon scrutiny were so loaded against the workers as to be unconsiderable.. Pay offers, for example, that sound good in the saying, but spread over such long periods that, in a time of high inflation and against the cost of living rises, were effectively worthless. Changes in working conditions hidden away in the small and often unreported print, that fundamentally effected the way that these jobs will work.

This is the stuff that the papers, the news bulletins, are not talking about. The desperate wearing down of these workforces over a decade to the point where they are now, in the face of inflation which is further knocking their incomes to shit after a decade of less than cost of living pay rises, saying enough is enough! They have had it up to here, and will take no more of it......and yet they will be presented as the villains of the piece. And told what they can and cannot have in return for doing the actual work of these jobs, by people sitting in offices earning wheelbarrow's full of cash in bonuses and dividends (in the case of privatised services) or fat salaried roles (in the case of public ones), while they decide if they can afford to put on the heating, buy their kids new shoes or even afford a chicken for Sunday dinner.

No. This is the side that you aren't going to hear anything about. While the government and media tell you all about these bad union men who are causing this, how much suffering and disruption they are causing, how "Laws must be brought in to put them in check!" (another of Sunak's promises yesterday), this is the side that will go unspoken of.

Because perish the thought that you should hear this and start thinking that they might actually have a point.
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Post by I'm Murrin »

Did you see the latest news on it peter - that the companies wanted to offer the rail workers 10% but the government intervened and made them offer lower pay and other unacceptable conditions. And while that was coming out, we had the BBC having to repeatedly edit an article about people whose travel over christmas would be disrupted because it immediately became apparent some of those interviewed wouldn't actually have been directly impacted.
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