Scottish Independence

[michaelm]

Many important, and often long-term majority-shared issues are NOT represented in Gov't.

Particularly evident when Congress votes against some kind of legislatory change that is desired by a majority of the population i.e. that thing that democracy is based on...

[I'm Murrin]

I do agree the UK will get worse, especially if Scotland leaves. I am in favour of Scotland leaving in any case, even if it does leave England with a long-term Conservative majority and a growing Eurosceptic attitude - because I figure it means at least Scotland has a chance to do better than the rest of the UK (excepting perhaps London).

[Avatar]

Would they be able to though? I'm all in favour of independence, but I don't know how viable it is for them, especially with the Euro looking like such a bad bet...

Great discussion btw guys. I'm tempted to split some of this off to make Peter's first 'Tank thread...

--A

[peter]

Too late Av - I'm in there already!

Yes - great little exchange above. By all means make a thread of it if you can Av.

I'm in some ways saddened by what I hear above however. I feel that both the UK and the USA have still much to offer the rest of the world and the prononcements of terminal decline are premature. The two party system has served the USA well over the years and is it not the case that the current 'stagnation' [caused by the deadlock refered to above] is a temporary situation that will shortly right itself. re The Uk there seems to be very likelyhood that Murrin's wish may be granted. There are a number of emergent parties at present who are beginning to put together a half decent 'raft' of policies and the old Labour/Tory/Labour swing system seems to be falling appart as we speak. Before long we will have Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, UKIP and Green parties all doing there thing and getting their message out to the people. The possibilities for good dynamic centrally positioned government are all there if we can but realise them.

[I'm Murrin]

Well, right now from polls it looks like Scottish independance will fail, and if Scotland remains then the probable Labour government next year (people generally turn against the sitting government, and Conservatives didn't even have a majority) will not be the last one. Conservatives are losing people to UKIP, Lib Dems had their moment and blew it and are losing out to Labour. I can't see the Greens ever getting anywhere.

If UKIP continues to grow, we're looking at two possibilities, one acceptable, one frightening:
1) Labour governments for the next few terms.
2) Tory/UKIP coalition government.

[aliantha]

Feel free to make the split, Av. Or I can.

The two party system has served the USA well over the years and is it not the case that the current 'stagnation' [caused by the deadlock refered to above] is a temporary situation that will shortly right itself.

We live in hope, but I dunno. Certainly the US has survived periods of rancorous political debate before.

[michaelm]

2) Tory/UKIP coalition government.

That is frightening. In the US it would be the equivalent of Republican/American Nazi Party coalition...

[peter]

There has been talk in the press recently of more tory MP's defecting for the UKIP ranks. Not likely I'm sure but if it did happen, these things can rappidly take up a momentum of their own. re The Green Party - yes, it's a shame that people do not give them more of an ear. I saw a lady on the news a few weeks ago [prior to the local elections I think] who spelled out some pretty sound ideas that would fit well into the center ground of UK politics as it stands.

re the Lib/Dems alas, it was the voters who had their chance and blew it. Some three or four elections ago they presented a really tip-top manifesto, full of good ideas that was costed out to the penny [to the point where even Jeremy Paxman said that their presentation was by far the most economically consistant] and what did we do - returned less liberal-dem mp's than ever before. Sometimes the British public would not recognise a sound bet if it kicked them up the ****.

I have deliberately avoided mention of the BNP which believe me has waaay more support here than I am comfortable with.

[Avatar]

Split from Gen Disc.

How many previous votes on Scottish independence have there been? Seems like I remember at least a couple of prior attempts that also (obviously) failed?

--A

[I'm Murrin]

I don't think there's ever been an official referendum on independence. There were referendums on devolution of power, one in the 70s that failed (just barely) and then in the 90s that created the current Parliament.

[TheFallen]

The only thing that'll save the UK from returning a Labour government next time is if the growing dissatisfaction within the UK towards all things federalist and European stays in the forefront of people's minds, come polling day.

Personally, I am nervously unsure if the UK's still fragile economic recovery can cope with even a single term of Labour's traditional "spend, spend, spend" policies. However, it's on Europe (and on foreign policy generally) that Labour is most easily perceived as weakest. The Tories have categorically promised a while back to give the electorate a vote by 2016 as to whether we want the UK to remain in Europe - provided of course that the Tories get re-elected. Labour has remained entirely tight-lipped about their attitude towards Europe - undoubtedly because their natural inclination is to be firmly in step with such costly bureaucratic centralism, but they know it'd be a vote-loser to say so. And before anyone chimes in, yes I am fully aware of the credibility of any political party's pre-election promises (Obama, anyone?), but it'd be excessively tricky for the Tories to U-turn on that one.

Having said all that, the schism that's currently afflicting the Conservatives, with - as Peter rightly points out - several sitting MPs defecting over to UKIP, is liable to deliver the next election (and possibly a few more) over to Ed "swivel-eyed" Milliband and his Islington-ista cronies. God help us.

A lot of you here have bemoaned bi-partite systems as being ineffectual and I'm sure you're all right in many ways. Many other European countries have matured situations where a coalition is pretty much always in place - and that's no bad thing. However, what's even worse than a duopoly is a less than mature situation, where in the absence of Proportional Representation, one traditional side is unaffected by schisms, but the other traditional side is fragmented. That's sadly liable to deliver nothing more than a long-term monopoly - and in our case, in favour of a recovery- and economy-wrecking Labour party.

To return to topic for a second, this is why there is one sole reason that I'd love to see Scotland vote for independence - because that'd ensure that it would be nigh on impossible for Labour to get back into power in what'd be left of the UK for a fair few terms. However, the Scots are looking like they're too smart to be bamboozled by Scottish Nationalist rhetoric and even with 16 year olds quite cynically being allowed for the first time to vote on this issue, I very much doubt that as a whole, Scotland will vote to split.

Some of course will say that my fears are either groundless or massively overstated. Maybe so, but I again have to bring up the infamous letter left behind by outgoing Labour Chief Secretary to the Treasury Liam Byrne for his successor, when the erstwhile Labour government got ousted in 2010.



This notorious letter is entirely genuine and the text quite unbelievably reads "Dear Chief Secretary, I’m afraid there is no money. Kind regards – and good luck! Liam."

That pretty much sums up the position of the UK's available reserves after 13 uninterrupted years of Labour in power - and it's that which gives me sleepless nights. For those interested, the full story's here

[peter]

Well at least he was being honest.

I'm suprised that the general feeling here seems to be toward Labour swinging a victory at the next election; I would have gone for another coalition; not neccesarily a tory/lib-dem one [though by no means impossible] but one where the torys were still the dominant partner allied with one [or more] of the smaller parties. I'm not so against these coalitions as many people seem to be. To my mind the lib-dems have had a moderating effect on the overall way the term has played out and the overall sucesses are there to be seen in the positive figures of the economy, unemployment and general [if too much slanted to the east of the country] improvement of the overall outlook. Why would people jump away from this to an untested and largely unknown quantity in the form of Milliband. I think people are ready to give this lot another go.

re Scotland - if they do depart the Union I believe it will be decades before the resultant fallout will be sorted. The business community is virtually to a man against the split - and money knows where money is. The loss of identity will be felt I believe harder in rumpUK [rUK] than in the newly independant Scotland where cultural identity is already strong. In rUK think in terms of a resurgent nationalism [already evident in the provinces] with all it's ugly faces as the positive face of the far-right [Farage and the country-tweed set] vies with the negative [the "ENGERLAND, ENGERLAND" mob of the BNP and it's Front allies] in the face of a suddenly bewildered populace struggling to discover who it is.

Then of course you have the defence situation. With no suitable deep-water harbour outside Scotland the dissolving of the Union is effectively a unilateral dissarmament [in respect of Trident] forced upon rUK whether it likes it or not. So goodbye top-table on the world stage for us.

One further point that very few people seem to be aware of; the terms of the dissolution of the Union have not even begun to be set. The Scottish people are being asked to vote on a future that they have no way of knowing as to how it will pan out - before the very ground rules of the break-up have even been set. If they vote yes they will close a door behind themselves leaving them open to any tricks Westminster chooses to play - and there will be nothing they can do about it. Under these terms Westminster will obviousely [and rightly!] do everything in it's power to ensure that it comes out of the dissolution with the winning hand. If Scotland are truly going to consider this then they should at least know what they will be left with when the dust has settled.

And finally - do we really believe this would stop with Scotland? Hungry eyes in Wales are already looking on with interst to see how this is going to pan out - and 'yes or no' vote in Scotland, things are never going to be the same again in our relationship with Wales. Damn it - even Cornwall is flexing it's nationalistic fingers what with being decared a [culturally] endangered species or some such thing recently by the EEC.

[Vraith]

However, the Scots are looking like they're too smart to be bamboozled by Scottish Nationalist rhetoric and even with 16 year olds quite cynically being allowed for the first time to vote on this issue, I very much doubt that as a whole, Scotland will vote to split.

but I again have to bring up the infamous letter left behind by outgoing Labour Chief Secretary to the Treasury Liam Byrne for his successor, when the erstwhile Labour government got ousted in 2010.

On the first....I don't know about that. I haven't been following it really, but I did just get a notification that showed a surge in last polls. The gap has narrowed significantly...mid-summer it was around 42 in favor, the latest showed it was up to 47. [[apparently poll done by Yougov, which was relatively accurate, with a slight right bias in U.S. last election...don't know about how well works in UK....but it's a big surge]]

On the second...not to get off-topic, but UK DOES have own currency.
I'm fairly sure you don't have any debt in foreign currencies.
65% of your debt is to U.K. citizens...
So [to steal a quote] the debt is not what gov't OWE's, it is what people OWN.
You are never out of money.
But that leads back on-topic. Independent Scotland has a currency problem...in that, they don't have one, afaict. From the snips I've heard they won't be able [or allowed?] to use the Pound. And they won't be able [be allowed?] to use the Euro, either.

[Avatar]

That is definitely a potential problem.

--A

[peter]

Since I posted the campaign has become considerably uglier with mob bullying and intimidation being seen [mainly it appears by the 'pro-yes' side]; Milliband has said the boarder between UK and Scotland would be 'guarded' under a Labour administration [what does that mean] - all in all, fair to say the gloves are coming off!

edit; All going to be on though - J K Rowling has appealed for calm.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

I freely admit that I know nothing of the intricacies of British politics so I do not know what effects independence might actually have but I always favor independence over the alternative. Either stay "United Kingdom" and drop the names "Wales", "Scotland", etc. or separate and become independent-yet-closely-allied neighbors. What is the worst that can happen? Some financial hiccups? A few protesters? Meh--those are minor problems which can be solved.

[peter]

I think the changes would be seismic Hashi, not limited in the way you describe. The ramifications would spread far and wide - not least in respect of the staunch and reliable support the UK and the USA have always given each other; support that has on numerous occasions been to the bennefit of the wider world as a whole and not just to these two stongest of allies.

[Hashi Lebwohl]

That is why I said I didn't know enough to predict the fallout--I am spitballing here.

Wouldn't the separate countries continue to be as allied with the United States as they are now? The only difference would be four or five embassies here instead of only one.

I am certain the domestic problems could range from minor to potentially disastrous--trying to decouple the economies would be tricky and likely not happen outside of maybe some new currencies.

[Avatar]

I'm always in favour of independence. But times have changed so much I just don't know if they can be self-sufficient. Especially if there's some issue about them getting on the Euro, suspect as it may be.

--A

[peter]

Yes, the new countries formed as a result of splitting up the Union will remain staunch friends of the USA - there is no question of it being otherwise. But over here we talk of something that may perhaps be a myth, maybe it is only in our heads and has no exisance in 'realpolitic' - but our press ond politicians call it 'the special relationship'. It means that we are more than just friends with the USA, it means that we do not forget our shared history and we do not balk when the need demands that we stand shoulder to shoulder - even in the face of sustained opposition from other quaters of the world. This is what is at risk - not because we would wish it so, but because it is a UK based thing. Underwritten by the Union, it is hard to see how it would endure in a post Union group [gosh knows, the decisions have been neither easy or unanimously agreed in the past] even if the severly reduced economic power of the truncated countries resulting from a split could afford it.

I am nearly sixty years old. I was born into a post war UK when we [and I mean the English] won the war, we [and I mean the English] ruled half the world and we [and I still mean the English] were beyond question the most superior, most civilised and most prosperous country in the world. These were the assumptions I was raised with and I never....never....questioned them untill I was well into my teens. Gradually, almost un-noticed over my life I have become British. I am no longer English, and far from regreting this fact I embrace it. I had seriously hoped that by the end of my life I would be no longer British - but European in the same way that you guys are American. It will not happen and by all accounts there is a real possibility that I will need once again to learn to be English again. I hope I make a better job of it this time because the last time I tried it I wasn't very nice.