What Do You Think Today?

[peter]

Probably in about two weeks time at this rate Av!

Details of more Christmas Beano's are emerging by the minute; one commentator said it would be easier if Johnson told us the dates where there wasn't a party in 10 Downing Street last December.

Meanwhile, I've been listening to some of the comments on radio and television etc today and it really is something when you hear Nigel Farage and James O'Brien agreeing on something. Johnson must really be in trouble if those two are finding common ground!

I saw Julia Hartley-Brewer interviewing the Labour deputy leader and it was a scream to see her (Angela Rayner, not J H-B) wriggling because she couldn't agree that Johnson was using the introduction of Plan-B as a diversionary tactic. Labour has assumed that Johnson would avoid said introduction because it would piss off his backbenchers, and so naturally have been calling for it. They also hope that if coronavirus cases rise in the near future they can capitalise, as they did before, by calling out the Government for being tardy in its response. Rayner was forced to deny that the PM was simply using the measures as a dead-cat and she - was - not - happy!

But this is not the end of the PM's cunning. He's actually employed a trick as old as the books in retail called 'washing your eyes'. Here's how it worked (I've had it pulled on me very expertly buying some jewellery in Delhi, and know it how effective it can be). After his early evening announcement to the nation, he took questions from firstly some members of the public, before letting the journalists have their turn. 'Dave from Ipswich' (or some such - I forget where exactly) asked outright "When are Covid vaccinations going to be mandated?", and Johnson gave his "Time for a national debate" answer. Of course this has caused some reaction in the media (just as it was meant to...... I actually think Dave was a plant) and has deflected attention away from the party situation somewhat. Job done! Well, not quite. Because in the best of 'eye washing' traditions, while we have been jumping up and down about the idea of mandatory vaccination, we have completely accepted the lesser infringement of civil liberties represented by the introduction of Covid passports - a thing announced in the press conference, never before seen in this country, and of which we had earlier said was a thing, up with which we would not put - without so much as a murmur!

So Johnson sold us the brass ring of Covid passports, which we bought happily because it was so much cheaper than the gold one of mandated vaccines. It was masterfully done. And not only that, he used it as a diversionary tactic to deflect attention from his Christmas party trouble at the same time.

Now that's clever. That is clever indeed!

[peter]

Forgot to mention - Carrie Johnson managed to squeeze one out - a kid that is - yesterday, with perfect timing for the PM to claim a little 'family time' in order to hide from the spotlight for a day or two. Number seven of the acknowledged ones, in case you're interested.

Meanwhile, letters are going in to the 1922 Committee, though not in numbers that will actually force him out. Poll results reported in today's Times will anger backbench Tory MPs today, adding further weight to the PM's woes. Johnson has managed once again to make a sow's ear out of a silk purse and his party must be getting royally pissed off with it.

In other news, more woes for the PM as reports suggest that his standards advisor (now there's a man who deserves sympathy - Boris Johnson's standards advisor) Lord Gelt, sorry Geidt, is going to resign if Johnson cannot adequately explain why the PM told him that he had no knowledge of where the money was coming from to carry out the refurbishment of his Downing Street accomodation, when he himself had been in discussion with Lord Brownlow about the said funding. Lord Geidt had previously published a report on the funding exonerating the Prime Minister of any wrongdoing based on Johnson's account to him, but a subsequent investigation by the Electoral Commission revealed that Johnson had himself asked Lord Brownlow for the money to make the changes, and had been given details as to how the payments were to be made. The Tory Party has been fined for the failure of disclosure of payments relating to the issue, and Lord Geidt is understandably unhappy that he has been made to look complicit in an attempt to deceive parliament.

Not exactly a household name in the UK, his resignation would not make huge waves for the PM, but at this particular point in Johnson's career as PM he really doesn't need another problem to add to his already bulging sack of them. In addition to the Geidt story, word has it that between thirty and one hundred Tory backbenchers (yes - a broad spread, but it's really hard to get accurate assessment of the scale of displeasure) could vote against the PM's introduction of Plan B when the vote comes to parliament. The measures would still pass the House because Labour will support them, but it is embarrassing for a PM to have to rely on the opposition to get measures through, and is indicative of a broad loss of support within the ranks. Such occurrences are all nails in the PM's coffin, going in one after another and further weakening his position. We've seen all of this before with Theresa May and we know that it takes time - but once the writing is on the wall it does not wash off easily.

[I'm Murrin]

Probably in about two weeks time at this rate Av!

Not a chance, really. The Tories may replace Boris and have a leadership contest, but there's no way in hell they're risking their massive majority on an election any time soon. They'll cling to it as long as they legally can. Unfortunately Prime Minister is not an elected position.

[peter]

No - I agree; at best they'll try to unload the liability that sits at their head and establish some order in the country's governance in time for the next election. The chief problem is that there is no clear successor to Johnson - just a bunch of hopeful wannabes. And no-one could ever accuse Johnson of being short of political cunning; he'll not go down without a fight.

[peter]

Prime Minister Johnson will not be pleased to see a picture of himself chairing the quiz (albeit by zoom) that broke the indoor gathering rules in Downing Street last Christmas, on the front of today's Sunday Mirror.

I'm not sure it's a game-changer, that would require a photo of him actually at one of the parties, but it sure won't help in his increasingly rear-guard fight that he was unaware of any proscribed social gatherings at his Number 10 offices. Tensions, already high amongst his backbenchers, will likely turn to anger at this latest of the drip-feed revelations that have been coming out this week, particularly given that there is evidence that this is beginning to seriously damage Tory poll ratings and could hit them hard in the one place they really care about - the voting booth. And the misleading of parliament which this photo seems to confirm that Johnson has been guilty of, is a potentially resigning offence - not that Johnson would do so - and there will no doubt be an increased volume of calls for him to fall on his sword (not that one ) in the days to come.

The Tories have got a by-election coming up this week in North Shropshire, prompted by the departure of shamed MP Owen Paterson (who you may remember Johnson tried to get off the hook), and while it should be a no-contest fight for the party, signs are that their twenty plus thousand majority might be taking a severe dint in the days to come. If the closest rival, the Lib-Dem candidate were to win, this would probably be the final nail that would produce the 53 letters of no confidence in the PM that would trigger a leadership challenge - but even a serious reduction in their existing majority would cause the PM major damage. The Tories are good at ousting bad leaders (if little else) and knives with Johnson's name on them are being sharpened, of this there is no doubt. He was only elected leader under sufferance because of his perceived ability to win them the 2019 election and should that skill be appearing to desert him, they'll jettison him in the blink of an eye.

But we're not quite there yet. The number of MPs indicating that they will rebel over the introduction of Plan B in the Commons vote on Tuesday has risen to around sixty and around half a dozen personal private secretaries to Ministers have intimated that they will resign if suggestions that the restrictions could be tightened even further are implemented.

So all in all Johnson is spending his weekend sitting on a bit of a bomb-shell, with very serious signs of a complete breakdown of unity, both within his Government and in the broader party. In short, it's a complete shambles. Michael Gove, when he stabbed Johnson in the back in an earlier leadership battle (during Theresa May's premiership and while putting his own name forward), said of him that he was unfit to hold the office of Prime Minister - a remark he publicly retracted on the Andrew Marr show when he was subsequently raised by Johnson into the cabinet (in the spirit of 'keep your friends close and your enemies closer'). How right his first assessment now seems.

And as an aside worth keeping in mind, said Gove always was a slippery bastard and was thick as thieves with ex-Johnson advisor Dominic Cummings who (full of cold hatred for his old boss who dumped him at wife Carrie's insistence) is rumoured not to be a million miles away from the way that the illicit party revelations are finding their way into the press. By the pricking of my thumbs, something wicked this way comes.........

[peter]

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.

Last night the PM stood gravely before the nation warning us of the tidal wave of Omicron infections heading towards us which threatened to engulf our defences, sweep over us leaving a trail of death and destruction in its wake and bring us to our knees. He was leaving no resource untapped, no stone unturned in order to prepare us for this tsunami of death heading in our direction, and promised that by the New Year every adult in the UK would be offered a third vaccination - the only thing that could provide any kind of protection at all in the face of this awful new variant on the Covid theme.

Earlier in the day I'd watched ex vaccinations minister Nadim Zahawi explain the logic behind this London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine inspired modelling, which suggested a worst case scenario of seventy five thousand deaths. The three day exponential growth of infections ("You know what'exponential' means?", he asked us) meant that while the virus was not of itself particularly pathogenic, not causing if you like, too serious a form of illness, the sheer numbers of infected individuals could result in the NHS being overwhelmed with admissions of the elderly and vulnerable - those who could be hit hard by the virus despite its low pathogenicity.

Fair do's; I accept that. But riddle me this.

This being the case what makes it any different from any ordinary cold virus of lesser public profile, such as we encounter on any regular year and for which we would never even think of restricting our everyday lives, let alone the introduction of such swingeing measures as vaccination passports and lockdowns? Every year the NHS is near overwhelmed by such viral surges: it's a consequence of running a service paired down to the bone and starved of resources - the very situation that Johnson's party have overseen in its development over the ten plus years of their administration.

But it is this especially fast transmission and infection rate that makes this virus so serious. Okay - so open up the nightingale hospitals, prepare them for operation as necessary; draft in the required medical staff from the bank of retired and agency workers, from temporary work visas issued to overseas workers with the requisite skills. Don't kill the economy, burn our liberties and whip up an avalanche of faux fear that will do far more damage to most than this innocuous virus could ever do.

"Innocuous," I hear you bridle, "Innocuous!"

Yes - to the huge majority of people innocuous. Put in perspective, there has not been one Omicron death recorded in the UK to date - not a single one. There are a few sufferer's in hospital, each one admitted seized on by the media and Government and waved in front of our faces as if to vindicate everything that they have said to date, all the dire warnings of disaster to come. There has not, incredible as it sounds, actually been a single death in the world recorded as resulting from Omicron - as a contender in the viral challenge cup it would hang its head and retire to the benches after the heats....it wouldn't even make the competition proper.

Yet here we are, braced against our furniture, clinging on for dread life as the black tsunami of death and destruction heads toward us. Every bead of sweat on Mr Zahawi's glistening forehead telling us that all that stands between us and the unleashed forces of purgatory are himself and Mr Johnson's Superman clad forms, standing fists upraised and ready to meet the challenge.......

Well excuse me if I don't buy it. Let's not forget. This is the most unfit, disreputable and mistrustful individual that has occupied Downing Street since - well frankly - ever. There is no ruse, no depth of mendacity to which Johnson will not sink in order to protect his ailing premiership. That bit of showmanship, of legerdemain he pulled last night would be the least of it. There is nothing like a bit of fear to get people running for nanny's skirts and Johnson and his team are well aware of it. Besides which they are by this stage, so committed to the path they are embarked upon that there is nothing, no amount of evidence to the contrary in respect of its efficacy, that could bring them to change course. Influential backbencher Steve Baker, who for all the difference we have politically, at least seems to get this and is doing his utmost to steer Johnson back onto a rational track, but it ain't gonna happen.

Nothing short of mass protest by the people will bring about a change in what is going on here. This isn't going to end any other way and it never was. For all the lockdowns, the mask mandates, the distancing and vaccinating, we are barely one square further forward than we were at the very start of this (that is, if you believe the PM and his doom-monger advisors). Every new variant will pose a new threat demanding of new measures, a new emergency to be faced - and on it will go.

The truth is that we do not live our lives to protect the NHS. We do not live our lives to protect the elderly and vulnerable (and I am both). We do our best, we take such measures as are recondite to our own situations, and we accept the inherent risks that life, if it is to be truly lived in a manner worthy of the name, demands of us. In short we choose life over mere existence. We are in the grip of an administration fighting for its life and it is using fear of the virus as a political tool to deflect our attention away from its indefensible activities and actions. Johnson is trading upon the gravitas and dignity of former incumbents of the position he holds, of our natural tendency to respect and believe the statements of holders of his high office, in order to further his own political agenda.Do not be fooled by his smoke and mirrors tricks to survive his current travails, his manipulation of your fear and compliance in order to serve his own ends. You deserve better.

[peter]

I think I'd like to just clear up one point; my chief problem with what is being done in the name of protecting us from Covid is not political. I very much dislike what Johnson is doing - how he is going about it, but I don't think for a moment that Kier Stamer would be any better. In fact I suspect he'd be much worse. At all stages of this for every move Johnson has made, Stamer has complained that it doesn't go far enough.

No, for me this runs much deeper, into the realm of what the limits should be of the state's ability to encroach into ones life. My problem is essentially constitutional then (made doubly so by the fact that we don't have a written one as such) in placing limits on the state's remit, on how far they can go in the pursuit of their desired ends.

As an example, I don't believe that unless the circumstances were truly critical - and critical to a degree infinitely higher than the threat posed by Covid even at it's worst possible manifestation - that the state should ever have the power to prevent a person from being by the side of their loved ones as they lie dying in hospital. Yet this proscription has been levied upon hundreds, possibly thousands of people since this thing began.

I don't believe that the state should have the power to say who you can or cannot entertain in your own house under any but the most exceptional circumstances; even were the bodies piling up in barrows at the end of our streets, I do not believe that this foray into our private lives would be acceptable - yet we have laboured under such restrictions for months at a time for no reason other than to 'protect the NHS'.

I don't consider myself excessively libertarian - I have no gripe with the majority of our laws (and would tighten up a good few) - but the idea that the state could justifiably mandate a medical procedure on a non-consenting individual is complete anathema to me.

There is discussion in progress as to the option of vaccination of children as young as five years of age going on as we speak. One of the central tenets of medical ethics is that no medical procedure can be carried out on somebody without their informed consent, and especially not for the purpose of conferring benefits to a third party. If the vaccination of children does not fail on the basis of the first condition then it certainly fails on the basis of the second - and yet it is being discussed without so much as a murmur of question from our media, a media supposed to be the ears, eyes and teeth of the public in holding our leaders in Government to account.

In two years of almost wall to wall saturation of news coverage of Covid, of interviews within the NHS, of Government statements and graphics of the the experts, of talking to people who have had, or lost people with Covid, I have seen nothing which convinces me that the damage that has been inflicted upon our society, our economy, our liberties, has come close to being justified or has brought us one iota closer to dealing with the problem.

Were it not for the fact that I know perfectly well that the PM's address to the nation last night was to no other purpose than to give the morning papers something to fill their pages with, other than the scandal of the Downing Street parties and Tory rebellions, I would think that his speech was a tacit admission of this last point.

[peter]

I want, for a moment, just to return to Nadim Zahawi's interview given on Sunday to Andrew Marr in which, defending the currently under the cosh Prime Minister, he spoke of Johnson's tireless and successful efforts to access the huge supplies of vaccines required for every person in the UK to be given a third vaccination (and presumably a fourth, and then a fifth), from a dwindling world stockpile.

Mr Zahawi failed to mention (and Andrew Marr didn't see fit to raise with him) that a huge proportion of the world population still wait to have their first vaccine. And that every vaccine injected into a minimally at risk individual in the UK was a vaccine not given to a vulnerable individual in the third world who would very likely die if were unfortunate enough to catch it.

Ah yes, but by vaccination of the non-vulnerable here, we protect our own vulnerable individuals.

Fair enough - but how many third world vulnerable individuals is a UK vulnerable individual worth? Ten? A hundred? A thousand? How many vulnerable third world individuals must be put at risk by taking the vaccines that could be used to protect them to inject into the arms of the not at risk individuals here, in order to safeguard one at risk person in this country?

So how many third world lives will Boris Johnson's successful 'grab' at the limited world vaccine stockpile cost Mr Zahawi?

And here's another thing that puzzles me; how are we ever going to get out of this thing if we in the wealthiest countries, keep hoarding all of the vaccines, preventing them from being given to the third world countries where they could be preventing countless deaths and slowing or indeed halting the emergence of the variants which continue to wash up on our shores, creating the problems such as the current one we face?

Would not Mr Johnson's efforts be better employed, if this is truly the world threat we are being led to believe it is, in lobbying for a central clearing house for vaccines, overseen by the WHO, allocating doses to each country according to the estimated need in respect of clinically vulnerable individuals? Are we to feel proud that rather, our PM took part in a 'supermarket grab' style competition, and came away with the lions share of the lolly like any schoolyard bully with more weight than his fellow competitors? This seems to be what you are telling us. But of course, in the world that your party sees as the right one, it's every man for himself isn't it? Come first and screw the rest? Well Mr Zahawi - from where I stand, if the Covid thing is the threat that we are told it is, it seems that your policy is an absolute guarantee that we will never - never - emerge from the other side of it. But none of this bothers you does it. Because none of your lot play by the rules like the rest of us anyway.

----------------------------------------0--------------------------------

Let's just reiterate the trick that Johnson pulled on Sunday night once more so that we are all clear about it.

He made a public address in which he added nothing to what was already known (that there would be a booster vaccination push) to the pot and gave no opportunity for the press to question him on either his address or indeed some other rather pressing matters on which they would have liked some answers. He did this so that there would be a different set of headlines in the following days papers to the critical (of himself) ones that they had planned, and made a promise of doubling the current rate of vaccine administration without so much as having consulted with the people on the ground actually giving the shots.

Was it possible to do this? Who cared: as long as the following days headlines led with this and not another party revelation, who gave a toss.

This was Johnson at his most typical; do anything, say anything, pull off any sleight of hand, no matter how duplicitous or immoral, in order to extricate yourself from today's quagmire of shit. Like an hopeless gambler whose life is unraveling around him, he plays the 'credit card shuffle', shunting problems from one card to the other, back and forth, round and round, every now and again throwing a newly obtained card into the mix to keep the thing going for a few days longer - always trying to hold up the teetering house of cards he has built with a prop here, a sop there, until the inevitable happens and it all comes tumbling down.

And when that happens - well again, who cares. A future of multimillion pound directorships and hot and cold running birds (look out then Carrie - if you care, which I very much doubt) and fuck the lot of you. As long as I'm alright Jack the rest of you can go fuck yourselves; and if somebody else can be bothered to step in and try to pick up the pieces - well, good luck to them!

[Avatar]

Late-stage capitalism at its finest.

That said, certainly agree that vaccine inequality is going to be the biggest driver of mutations and escape variants, possibly for years to come. (And to a large part due to hoarding by "developed" nations.

As for the rest...well... I think my stance on the whole rights thing is fairly well known. Fictions to a large degree, bestowed by the whim of government and as easily ripped away.

As Chairman Mao observed, all law grows from the barrel of a gun. (Ok, he said it of political power, but the principle is the same. )

Everything else is an illusion we believe because it makes us feel more empowered.

--A

[peter]

Well I'm certainly not feeling very empowered at the moment Av.

Meanwhile Boris duly received his drubbing in the House last night with fractionally shy of one hundred of his own party MPs voting against his intended introduction of Covid vaccine certification requirements into specified venues such as nightclubs and football matches.

The measure still passed the House, but only thanks to Labour Party support - a truly humiliating position for a Prime Minister to find him/herself in, and especially so with a majority of the size of Johnson's. There are significant rumblings amongst the Tory ranks that the PM must take note, get a grip, or otherwise find ways to get back on top of his premiership, or face the inevitable consequence of a leadership challenge. A number of letters of no confidence have already been (reportedly) filed with the Chairman of the 1922 committee (the committee of Tory backbench MPs responsible for selection of the party leader), though in what number is not known and will not be until such time as the watershed mark of 54 is reached, at which point a vote of no confidence is automatically triggered.

So the scale of unhappiness with Boris Johnson has been demonstrated within his party - and it is much worse than expected because in reality no-one expected all those who had indicated their intention to rebel to actually do so. Such votes are always used within parliament by MPs to barter for concessions in other areas of individual concern to themselves in order to 'buy their support'. This had been expected to significantly reduce the final numbers voting against their Government, as had the PM's charm offensive in the final hours before the vote in which he appealed directly to his backbenchers for their support. That his appeal fell on deaf ears is significant indeed, and must be seen as indicative that the writing is on the wall for his leadership unless he is able to execute a pretty spectacular turnaround in a manner we cannot yet see possible.

His chances of survival will receive a further test later in the week when the North Shropshire by election is held, and should it be shown that his mismanagement has caused a dint in public confidence (reflected by a severe loss of votes in a constituency currently held by a large majority) then he will be in trouble indeed. Under these circumstances it becomes entirely possible that the magic number of 54 letters will be reached.

How much am I praying that this will happen? Well, not as much as you might imagine. I'd be the first to want to see the Conservative Party reshape itself into the old style one-nation Tory Party of old (think pre-Thatcher days), but it isn't going to happen. And god forbid - saying we fetched up with someone like Priti Patel in charge......now that is truly frightening!

The truth is that both the Conservative and Labor Parties are empty shells, unfit for purpose in our current time. Neil Oliver described it as the Tory Party being a void, into which Labour had been drawn, and I agree. I have long felt that both parties had exceeded their sell by date and that a new party based on true social democratic principles was needed to restore vigour to our exhausted polity (in fact I've said as much in these pages), but alas the grip on power of the ruling oligarchy in this country will never allow this to happen. We witnessed what happened when Corbyn came forward as the first real challenge to the established order - how he was first vilified and then destroyed by the establishment controlled media - and were a serious contender to emerge once more the same would happen again. The brief flare of interest shown by a youth with so much to gain by a root and branch shake up of our system, quickly faded as the effects of their constant usage of social media and the internet kicked in; minds robbed of the ability to maintain sustained interest and attention to a single subject, the attainment of a single goal, just as they are meant to be. Concentration spans limited to the small delineated 'bytes' of a Twitter post or a Facebook like will never be able to mount the kind of sustained campaign that would be required to upset our entrenched order - a depressing but true reality of the days we live in.

And hence I see little hope; when the Tories eventually get it together to ditch Boris Johnson, then either something worse will replace him, or a general election will put Kier Stamer in situ in place of him - and he'll dance to the tune of exactly the same masters as Johnson does and nothing - nothing - will change.

[Forestal]

And hence I see little hope; when the Tories eventually get it together to ditch Boris Johnson, then either something worse will replace him, or a general election will put Kier Stamer in situ in place of him - and he'll dance to the tune of exactly the same masters as Johnson does and nothing - nothing - will change.

And this is the conclusion that I came to about a decade ago, which is sad considering that was only after my second election of being elegable to vote. I am one of those disillusioned none-voters who at this point are tempted to vote for anything other than the conservatives, not because any other party would be better for the country, but because it would be nice to have different coloured curtains hanging at #10 - as the colour of the seats in government is the only actual "choice" the people of this country have anymore.

[peter]

The police and immigration bills currently going through the House make your decision to vote for anything other than a Tory candidate an absolutely critical one Forestal; just as the most egregious example of the authoritarian moves going on behind the scenes as we speak, did you know that the police bill contains a clause that anybody - anybody- can be slapped with an oder that prohibits them from engaging in any kind of protest at all! That's going out on the street, posting on the internet, anything. And the recipient of the order need not have been convicted of any crime in a court before its serving.

For a fuller outline of the scope of this administrations seemingly inexorable slide toward authoritarianism, see George Monbiot's YouTube post 'Dictator' (The Government just took away your freedom); it makes for chilling viewing. It is crucial that we all vote tactically in the next election to at least attempt to reduce the number of Tory seats in the House: that would be a start from which perhaps something new might emerge.






Johnson will be holding his breath today as the booths open up for voting in North Shropshire. The tory majority is currently around 23,000 and if it were to be significantly reduced or the seat even lost altogether (polls have the Tories and Lib-Dem candidates neck-a-neck) then backbench fury will know no bounds. It is reported in today's Telegraph that the entire panel of the 1922 Committee (which has the power to change the Party leader, or at least instigate a leadership contest) voted against the Government in the recent rebellion against Covid passports, and Chairman Sir Graham Brady has let it be known that he will, contrary to normal practice, accept email letters of no confidence over the Christmas recess, as long as followed up by a confirmatory telephone call. This suspension of the normal practice of letters being handed into the office will be a blow to Johnson, who will have been hoping to use the recess as a cooling off period from what has transpired and might yet transpire in the by-election.

All in all, Johnson's days look numbered, and the pessimism of my previous post in respect of achieving real change in this country notwithstanding, all journeys must start with a single step. And unloading Johnson and flinging out this atrocious and dangerous excuse for a Government would be a significant one in the right direction.

[peter]

This is hot off the press guys (it's nearly 5am here and the result is barely in)........

But the Tories have been slaughtered in North Shropshire, their 23,000 majority seat going by a margin of around 6,000 to the Lib-Dem challenger Helen Morgan.

This is big news.

The Tories have held that seat for nearly 200 years; it was as solid as solid comes. So this result can be seen as a direct message from the British people to the Tories to ditch Boris Johnson. There is no other interpretation. Not a warning shot across the bows - a reduced majority win would have achieved this - but an absolute two finger salute to the leader saying in no uncertain terms that his shenanigans are alienating the core Tory support upon which the Party survival depends.

This cannot, it simply cannot, be ignored by his Parliamentary MPs. Today they will be coalescing into a different kind of tidal wave than the one that Boris Johnson was predicting for the country in his dissembling talk to the nation on Sunday night - and it is almost bound to come in the form of a barrel full of letters of no confidence dumped into the inbox of Chairman of the 1922 Committee Sir Graham Brady, iterating no confidence in the PM and demanding a leadership contest.

More broadly, it was interesting to note that the Labour share of the vote fell as well in the by-election, indicating that Kier Stamer's ineffectual opposition to the Johnson administration is starting to bite and also (and perhaps more crucially) that people had got that they had to vote tactically in order to achieve the desired result of removal of Tory MPs. By-elections do not by and large reflect the way people vote in national elections - they are seen much more as opportunities to send a message than actual statements of intent - and the message from this result is absolutely unmistakable; Johnson has damaged the Party, and damaged it severely. He has overseen a litany of bad decisions, scandals and outright chicanery that has sickened even the most forgiving of the Tory faithful and it has to stop.

Translated to a national level, a swing of this degree would reduce the Tories to nothing. Literally! They would be lucky to muster even the half-dozen seats that the Lib-Dem Party normally garner and the behind the scenes leadership of the Party will absolutely be aware of this. Now as I say, you shouldn't extrapolate by-election results into national ones - but you'd be knucklehead stupid not to see the warning signs and the Tory Party are anything but that. They are ruthless in cutting out leaders that aren't up to the job (electorally) and Johnson just fell sharply into that category. Somewhat ironic (if inevitable) that the man who was voted in as Party leader for no other reason than his ability to win a specific election, should loose his leadership (and he will) on that very same measure when it deserts him. As they say - up like the rocket, down like the stick.

But there is another factor we have to consider here. A factor that turns everything on its head; makes it such that the normal rules no longer apply; I refer of course to the pandemic.

How much of this seismic turnabout of the Tory fortunes in North Shropshire can be put down to a public backlash against the policies they have been adopting to counter the Covid pandemic.

A glance at this morning's press (printed before the results were in) relates to growing Tory MP dissatisfaction at the way Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitey has effectively introduced a "lockdown by stealth", by countering the PM's advice to go out and party in the run-up to Christmas, and in doing so has virtually sounded the death-knell for hundreds of hospitality businesses absolutely dependant upon the substantial revenues they get from Christmas bookings. Parties have been cancelled in their thousands, costing the beleaguered industry billions of pounds, as people take to their homes instead of the local hostelries for the celebrations.

Whitey, who has been at Boris's side from day one, has been the 'face of the science' that Johnson claims to have been following - the science that he has used to justify his every move, his every increase in restrictions, his every encroachment into the heart and soul of people's lives, turning the pandemic from a mere inconvenience (to the bulk of the population) into a blight upon people's very existence. Now it appears that the trick has worked too well - the monster has turned on its maker and when the advice coming out of their respective mouths is different, it is that issuing from Whitey that they are listening to. This, as said, has struck a killing blow at the heart of business, and if there's one thing that the Tory faithful love more than anything else, it's business!

So this (alongside plain and simple 'pandemic exhaustion') cannot be ruled out as having played into the above by-election shift in voting pattern. One MP said that normal rules no longer apply, we live in a world where the absurd has become commonplace, and shifts of this magnitude (that normally, simply do not happen) are reflective of this.

The Johnson spin machine will crack into action this morning to try to portray this result as 'nothing to see here', but it simply won't cut it. All of the "this is just the normal by-election kick against the incumbent administration" schtick that they will wheel out, will be bollocks. This is seismic and don't let them tell you different. Johnson has this morning discovered that gravity applies to him, just as to the rest of us. His star rose and burned, and now it's time to pay the Piper. It goes without saying that he will not be happy. And behind the scenes plans will be being hatched, alliances forged and greedy eyes will be avariciously turned toward the the prize of Tory leadership suddenly shining before them.

But anyway, that about sums it up for the moment. I predict a pretty interesting rollercoaster of a political ride over the course of the next few weeks and I, for one, am looking forward to it!

[Avatar]

Well I'm certainly not feeling very empowered at the moment Av.

That's because the illusion is being swept aside Peter.

--A

[peter]

I'd agree but for the fact that, come to think of it, I've never felt particularly empowered Av. It's like the chap sitting before his therapist who is saying to him, "You don't need to worry about your feelings of inferiority Mr Jones - you are inferior."

[Avatar]

Must say it's not something I generally think or worry about. My ego generally protects me from stuff like that.

--A

[peter]

On the face of it my ejaculations yesterday about the tsunami of letters of no confidence about to descend on BJ's head (I hope you're getting all this) might have been (drumroll) premature - but suffice to say that publicly the PM has been warned to get his act together or face the chop.

Sir Roger Gale (MP) said that it was three strikes and you're out, and Boris had definitely had two of them; others warned that they were close to loosing confidence in the Leader, and the PM himself said in a brief interview that he took responsibility for the drubbing the party had received in North Shropshire (before then obliquely blaming the media for {for once} doing their job and focusing on administrative wrongdoing).

But this morning the circus continues with news that the man appointed by Boris Johnson to hold an investigation into the Downing Street parties of last December (held, you will remember in contravention of the then current lockdown rules) having to step down for (you guessed it) having his own party the day before the putative one at Number 10.

Johnson is indeed fortunate that the scandal and by-election failure have come right on top of the Christmas recess, allowing him time to regroup while backbenchers attend to their families and constituency matters, but this notwithstanding it would be unwise to think that movements were not going on behind the scenes that could seriously effect his future as Prime Minister. Those very constituency offices that the MPs will be mixing in over the next few days will be letting them know in no uncertain terms how unhappy they are with the situation at the top of the party, and this is going to have a slow-burn effect on the MPs galvanising who knows what actions in the New Year. And today's headlines about Simon Case quitting as 'Party Investigator in Chief' ain't going to help one bit! The atmosphere of chaos and an administration in disarray is becoming impossible to ignore and it is entirely possible that the movement to change leadership could grow from the grassroots up. Far from being the breather that Johnson needs, the Christmas recess could be the very catalyst needed to spur Tory backbenchers into writing those letters.


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Anybody seeking clarity on the current Covid/Omicron situation in this country could be forgiven for wanting to lock themselves into a dark cupboard and stay there for a month, given the contradictory and unintelligible messaging of this morning's press.

The Telegraph tells us that Sajid Javid's forecast of 200, 000 cases a day is no longer valid due to changes in behaviour effecting the transmission rate in recent days: it also notes the difference in respect of high publicity given to the high infection rate and 1.9 day doubling rate, contrasted with the quiet release of the memo saying that the figures were no longer applicable.

The i newspaper, in contrast tells us that Omicron infections are now "Out of Controll" and that the variant cases are doubling every 1.5 days.

Moving on to the severity of the Omicron variant - surely the most significant thing we need a handle on, in order to make our risk assessment of the situation - we find the information equally baffling. Professor (Pants-Down) Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London is quoted in this morning's FT as saying that Omicron is no less severe than other variants of Covid. Well - what he actually said was that the data provided "no strong signal of an intrinsically reduced severity of Omicron versus Delta" if you can pick the bones out of that, but added, "much more definitive judgement could be made within a week". Yes - that would be when people were either visibly dying of Omicron in hospitals or not wouldn't it Professor - not actually anything to do with your 'data' as such really? The Telegraph has a somewhat different slant on things however, telling us that the new Imperial College modelling has been criticized for "failing to take into account real world data from South Africa showing that Omicron is causing fewer deaths, hospitalisations and leading to shorter stays in hospital, even for the older and more vulnerable." The Mail, confusing even itself, tells us that "It is not yet known whether Omicron .....is milder. However victims recover faster and become less infective in just three to five days."

Confused? You should be! Is it any wonder that polls are beginning to show that people are tiring of the whole thing. I'm damn sure I am. I loved a wonderful clip I saw on YouTube of an elderly lady from the North of the country stopped by a BBC interviewer in the street. "The whole thing is ridiculous!", she said. "I'm eighty five years old", she said, "Do you think I want to spend my last remaining years shut up inside my house! All of this destruction of the economy - where's the money coming from to pay for it? It's the young people who'll pick up the bill, I'll tell you!" And so saying she went on her way down the street, as down to earth and sensible a voice as ever you could want to hear.

[peter]

It's really hard to know where to begin with what is happening at present, how to tie it all together into a unified post, so in the absence of any clearly defined whole I'll just dive in and hope for the best.

Sky news yesterday reported a "very worrying" leap in the deaths attributable to the Omicron variant; over the course of one week they have leapt from one to seven - a rise seven hundred percent if you like - the beginning perhaps of the 'tidal wave' of which we have been warned and upon which concern the Government is planning to bring in further restrictions, perhaps even going so far as a 'circuit breaker lockdown' in the New Year.

Now don't get me wrong, each of these deaths is a tragedy in the households in which they occur - but in a population of sixty five million undergoing a wave of viral transmission as is common in every winter, it is not exactly earth shattering stuff. Even the middle of the road Tory supporting Spectator magazine posted a sceptical video on its hourly review of the week, observing how the latest Downing Street statement from Boris Johnson and Chris Whitey had utilised an egregious level of 'spin' in order to present the figures in a form that seemed to support their dire predictions, rather than the rather prosaic truth that Omicron doesn't at this point seem to be much of a threat in the great scheme of things.

The presenter observed how Whitey had used the "escalating" levels of hospitalisation in South Africa to predict that the same would happen here, without mentioning that the very significant differences in respect of vaccination levels render such comparison almost meaningless (never mind that the observation itself simply isn't true - Omicron levels in the population of South Africa are escalating far higher than the hospital admissions in previous waves of different variants have seen, and they are four weeks into the latest variant cycle and are even possibly into the downward curve, and deaths remain at virtually zero from it).

It's taken time, but it appears that at last it is beginning to get through to the media, and the population more generally, that for whatever reason, things are not quite what is being presented to them by their Government. Across the Tory backbenchers, frustrations with the talk of increasing restrictions and possible returns to lockdown are beginning to coalesce into a serious refutation of the direction of travel of their leadership, and this frustration is undoubtedly a reflection of what they are seeing arriving every day in their inbox folders from their constituents. The big news story of today, the resignation of the Chief Brexit Negotiator Lord Frost is undoubtedly tied very significantly into this growing level of rebellious thinking; certainly Frost will not be happy with the constraints under which he has been placed in respect of his negotiations with the EU, but I've seen speculation that this is secondary perhaps to his revulsion toward the illiberal moves in respect of Covid passports and lockdowns.

So going back to my starting point, it is looking increasingly silly for news channels like Sky to present figures such as seven deaths as though they are apocalyptic in nature, and it is getting increasingly difficult for the Government to keep presenting the Omicron variant as an existential threat, when in essence it seems more in line with the normal types of cold virus that we have been living with since the year dot, albeit of a particularly transmissible nature. Yes, the NHS will be overwhelmed or nearly so - but it always is, it always has been, ever since day one. Locking down the economy, wreaking havoc and destruction on the business and wealth generating section of society in response is looking like an evermore hyperbolic reaction to a threat that is minimal at worst, to the huge bulk of the population. Yes, shield the vulnerable, get the jabs out - but destroy the hospitality sector? Wipe out the retail slurge of Christmas? Lock the people into their homes?

And to put the whole Omicron thing in context, to give some idea of the repercussions of the Government fixation on Covid to the exclusion of every other aspect of our national health, I heard a Professor of oncology at one of the major London hospitals saying earlier in the week that as a direct result of late presentation of cancer patients due to the pandemic, forecasters in his field estimate that there will be an additional 750,000 deaths due to cancer in the next two years.

[peter]

My God what is happening to me!

I voted to remain in the referendum. I supported Jeremy Corbyn - hell, I still believe (for all of his faults) that he represented the best chance of breaking out of the 'business as usual' dominated approach of the ruling oligarchy/establishment, that we had for decades. But in the crazy upsidedown world I seem to have landed in, I suddenly find myself aligned to the right wing of the Tory Party, who for the most part I wouldn't give the time of day if they were the last people left in the country.

The reason for this strange turn of events is single-fold (is that a word?); I believe that breaking out of the endlessly perpetuating cycle of damaging restrictions and lockdowns, of putting this Covid monster of our own creation to bed,back in its box - done, finished and forever - is the single most important thing that sits in our 'in-tray', and must be accomplished first before anything else whatsoever is attended to.

And for whatever reason, I know not what, it seems that the right wing of the Tory Party is the only place in the whole damn political arena, where I can find anyone that seems to be of similar mind. Having said that, I seem to remember that the leader of the now miniscule, Social Democratic Party (as opposed to the Liberal-Democrats - a totally different party) expressed a degree of Covid scepticism in interview on one occasion on Talk Radio, but in terms of parties represented in the House, it's the Tories or nothing.

Now, as we are 'softened up' for the introduction of further restrictions in the coming days either before or post-christmas, I'm of the hope that what is being represented as the right-wing of the parliamentary Tory Party in the media, is in fact more of a return to the conservatism (with a small 'c') of the Tory Party of my youth. Think true 'one-nation' Toryism that was effectively abandoned by Margaret Thatcher (who according to Peter Hitchens was never a true Conservative) and has been all but dead in the corner of the Tory Party of the last three decades.

I have a grudging liking for Steve Baker, certainly a hard brexiteer if ever there was one, who in a documentary on brexit shown from the EU side, came across as a genuinely committed and honourable politician, as opposed to the current members of Johnson's cabinet, who without exception seem to me, to be individuals who would sell their own mothers for two bits plus tax.

But on the introduction of further restrictions, it does seem that even the cabinet are now beginning to get tired with the whole ridiculous thing. Word in today's press has it that upwards of one third of the cabinet are opposed to any but the lightest increase in restrictions (ie advisory rather than mandatory) and only the hard-liners like Sajid Javid and Michael Gove are in favour of locking down or otherwise limiting people's contact with each other. Rumor has it that one leading cabinet member is ready to walk if tighter restrictions are introduced. Johnson himself is walking a fine line between following the advice of his SAGE Committee, and going for increased restrictions sooner rather than later and thereby risking a full cabinet revolt, or siding with the cabinet and then maybe seeing hospital admissions go through the roof as the scientists warn will happen. (I don't personally believe they would - at least not to the point where the NHS would be 'overwhelmed' (what does this even mean anyway?). The South African data does not support such a scenario and it makes no sense to hunt trouble and destroy people's businesses on a mere possibility.)

My betting is that Johnson will side with the members of his cabinet that are against further restrictions; he will be afraid of a full scale backbencher rebellion if he goes to parliament asking for more restrictions (remember, 100 voted against him last week) and will be desperately afraid of prompting those letters of no confidence if he follows the scientific advice (which is being seen as increasingly over-cautios).

But if he doesn't go with SAGE, he can guarantee that he will be roasted by the opposition and the media for not doing so, so he's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't really. It couldn't happen to a nicer bloke!

[peter]

It's interesting - and if you haven't read the post above it might be enlightening in respect of what is to follow - but the more cabinet and parliamentary resistance to the introduction of further Covid restrictions gathers pace, the greater reaction in the media pushing in the opposite direction becomes.

I've just watched the BBC 9am broadcast in which a lady doctor and epidemiologist from Queen Mary College gave by far the most dismally pessimistic predictions of what we are (putatively) about to face, that I've as yet heard. When the newscaster doing the interview suggested that she was perhaps being overly negative by focusing on the worst case scenario, the doctor bridled. "By no means!" she said. "We haven't even begun to talk about the worst case scenario yet."

Now what exactly is going on here? It's like the scientific community and media is aligning itself against the Tory Party movement toward a less invasive and dictatorial approach. Or is it something else? Is it (perhaps) the Javid/Gove elements within the cabinet attempting to use the media to bring pressure on Johnson to adopt their more interventionist approach of increasing regulations and rules? Or plain political gaming? Say Gove (with his buddy Dominic Cummings working behind the scenes) attempting to undermine the Prime Minister to further his own leadership ambitions? All of these are possible, but irrespective of this, the one thing that is guaranteed is that this sudden upping of presentation of the risk factor of Johnson's doing nothing is not coincidental. There is something going on behind the scenes of which we the public are not being made aware - in fact worse than this, games are being played with people's fear levels that could have disastrous effects on their mental well-being, for the most dubious of reasons. Not for the first time in this sorry saga, the BBC should be utterly ashamed of itself.

And talking of being ashamed of oneself, so should Health Secretary Sajid Javid for the lending of his weight to the vilification of people who have not been vaccinated during his interview with Andrew Marr yesterday. Javid barely bothered to conceal his contempt - or skillfully and subtly deliberately presented it - for the ten or so percent of people who have not had the vaccine,, when he spoke of them "taking up places and utilising resources in hospitals" that could, he said, have otherwise been used to treat individuals with different, but equally pressing medical concerns. I cannot stress enough how dangerous this type of behavioural nudging is. It is wholly and completely reprehensible, often completely unjustified on any level and totally outwith the tactics that an elected Minister should utilise in pursuit of his aims, no matter how important those aims might seem. The creation of an 'other', toward which blame can be directed is a trick as old as the hills used by political charlatans and repressive dictators since the year dot. He should resign for this trick alone (nevermind his hoodwinking of the Prime Minister into believing that he would be a moderating authority on the scientific/medical influence that was seeking to pull the Government in one direction only - toward the state of permanent lockdown; it didn't take long for that mask to slip now did it?).

Another person interviewed by the BBC this morning, the head of NHS staffing or some such, said that much of the problem of the NHS was being caused by staff absence due to sickness. Now on this subject I can only talk about my own experience, but where I work, when a cold virus is 'going about', there is no-one in the place, myself excepted, that does not take the opportunity to take a couple of days off in front of the telly - and we're not even paid sick-pay! I'm guessing, but given the current atmosphere of justification of being away from work, in combination with full pay for as long as it takes I'd bet that a significant proportion of those 'off-sick' could be found in front of their televisions, game stations and computers, laid low by a case of the sniffles that would not stop them from going out on a Friday night or cracking open a bottle of wine at home with a friend. Sorry, but people are people, whether they work for the NHS or elsewhere; you give them the opportunity to take time off work, pay them for doing so and even encourage it - and they will take time off work. I read a book recently about the battle of Waterloo and soldiers fought on there with the most horrendous of injuries; one guy had his hand cut off and tied a bandage around the wound and jumped back into the fray. I'm thinking that a bit of this kind of spirit would not go amiss in the face of an NHS on the verge of being 'overwhelmed'. Perhaps a slight head-cold might be acceptable on the wards of an NHS on the verge of crisis - just say? If it meant that ten, thousand businesses in London might be able to continue trading in order to keep the revenues flowing in that actually pay for the service in the first place? As to the argument that NHS workers with the virus should not be at work spreading it about - the place is boiling with it already: it isn't going to make any difference. The criteria for staying off work should not be whether you have got the virus or not (and this applies to all of us); it should be whether you are fit to work or not. Let's be clear. It is our response to Omicron that is screwing us, not Omicron itself.

Just my thoughts.