Console Wars VII: The State of Play

[Nav]

I took a look at NPD's console sales figures for October and they make for interesting reading:

Wii: 519,000 (Total: 5 million)
DS: 458,000 (Total: 13.6 million)
Xbox 360: 366,000 (Total: 7.1 million)
PSP: 286,000 (Total: 8.8 million)
PS2: 184,000 (Total: 39.4 million)
PS3: 121,000 (Total: 1.9 million)

These are US-only figures (I believe the Wii has overtaken the 360's golbal sales total in the last week or two), but I'm staggered at how well the DS is doing. I expect the Wii to be running away at the top, but I didn't realise the next contender would be Nintendo's other console.

The 360 has settled back down to respectable numbers after the Halo effect of the previous month launched it to the top of the charts. I think we might be in the 360's Golden Age at the moment and sales will start to weaken by this time next year.

It's grim reading for Sony though. I'd convinced myself that whatever went wrong with the PS3's launch, Sony would be able to market themselves out of trouble. Not so, with the PSP (itself easily outpaced by the DS) outselling it 2:1 and the PS2 still comfortably ahead of its younger brother. The machine itself is outstanding, but the titles just aren't there to justify the price tag. It's not as though there's a ton of juicy names in the pipeline, just GTA IV which isn't even a PS3 exclusive.

It gets worse when we look at the software sales:

NPD’s Top Ten Software Sales in October

1. Halo 3 (X360) – 433,800
2. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (X360) – 383,200*
3. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Wii) – 286,300*
4. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (PS2) – 271,100*
5. The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (DS) – 262,800
6. Wii Play (Wii) – 239,700
7. The Orange Box (X360) – 238,400
8. Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock [without guitar pack-in] (PS2) – 231,700*
9. FIFA Soccer 08 (PS2) – 129,700
10. Brain Age 2: More Training in Minutes a Day (DS) – 116,900

NPD’s Top Software Sales for 2007-to-Date

Halo 3 (X360) – 3,700,000
Madden NFL 2008 (All) – 3,200,000
Guitar Hero II (All) – 2,800,000
Wii Play (Wii) – 2,500,000
Pokémon Diamond (DS) – 2,100,000
Pokémon Pearl (DS) – 1,500,000
Spider-Man 3 (All) – 1,400,000
Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (All) – 1,400,000

Not a single PS3 title among them, although Halo 3's drop of 2,700,000 copies from September will likely come as a shock to Microsoft, who probably didn't expect such a sharp decline. I guess nearly everybody who wanted Halo 3 went out and bought it right away. I'm disappointed that Spiderman 3 made it into the YTD top 10, as those movie tie-in games are usually unspeakably awful.

[Menolly]

My understanding is that although fun, Wii Play is really only doing so well because you get the extra controller with it. So, technically with the controllers selling separately for $39 US, and Wii Play for $49 US, you're only paying $10 US for the game.

[Cagliostro]

Seems like PS2 had a title problem at the launch. But it sure did take off later. We'll do the summing up once it has a Final Fantasy game out. PS3 also the newest of the bunch too, but has no real powerhouses out yet that you can't get on another system. Still, I think it will come into its own like the PS2 did. I'm amazed how long the PS2 has been performing.

But to be honest, I'd buy a Wii long before the PS3. At least until another game is released from the Ico/Shadows of the Colossus team, which is due on the PS3. That'll probably sell me on it. But not for a while.

[Worm of Despite]

The problem with the PS3 is it's priced too high and its library of games is small and lacking any standout titles. But I'm sure that'll change with Metal Gear Solid 4 or Final Fantasy XII.

BUT--because the system is so ridiculously advanced, Sony is going to be taking massive losses for years in their game department, unless they find a way to cheaply produce it, suddenly lower the price to $200, and get people to buy it like hotcakes. Microsoft lost over $ 4 billion with the Xbox and didn't turn a profit until 2005.


PS. HA HA HA!! Screw you Sony, GO NINTENDO!

[kevinswatch]

Yeah, as a lifelong Nintendo fan, I don't have too much sympathy for Sony.

I converted over to PSX and PS2 during the N64 years, since the N64 kinda sucked and all of the Square games were going to Sony. But now, Square has kind of ticked me off as of late, and I'm still a fan of most of the Nintendo franchises.

So I don't see myself buying a PS3 anytime in the near or far future. Even when FF13 comes out (which right now just looks mediocre and strange anyway).

Too high of a price tag + no real games I care for = Sorry, Sony.

Wii all the way. Come on, SSBB.

-jay

[Nav]

I know the PS3 price drop was down to Sony finding a cheaper way to produce the violet lenses used by the BluRay reader, so further price drops are definitely not out of the question.

Microsoft continue to be a powerful, if uninspired market force. Their model with the Xbox was to get a toe-hold in the market at all costs and then work from there. Nobody is sure if their gaming division will turn a profit this year and nobody really knows if they'll care if it doesn't. Microsoft has said that "if it doesn't make a profit this year, when will it?" but in all likelihood they'll plough on and have another try in the next gen.

We can see the same model at work in the MP3 player market: the first Zune wasn't actually the failure it's sometimes made out to be. It's actually a very good player (and the brown is shot through with green, it's rather fetching when seen close up) and although the software was bad, the product made people aware that Microsoft was was making music players. The new generation of Zunes look very sharp indeed and the improved Zune software is a big step closer to being an iTunes competitor.

[Cagliostro]

I haven't seen much on the Xbox that thrills me. I'm not a fan of FPS, and I have seen very little else in offerings on this system. Now I must admit that I haven't really looked too closely at their library, but I dig RPG, and have heard they just aren't strong in that department. So screw 'em.

[Nav]

The 360's library is FPS-heavy (I can only assume their logic is that FPS gamers buy more games, which is true as far as I'm concerned), but other genres are being fleshed out. There's Oblivion of course, Mass Effect is out now and is excellent, Fable 2 is coming soon and then Fallout 3 next year.

[Queeaqueg]

I think the Wii is overrated. PS3 in the long run will be the best one because of all the power it has, better games will come on it. Personally, go for PS3 and PC.

[Worm of Despite]

I think the Wii is overrated. PS3 in the long run will be the best one because of all the power it has, better games will come on it. Personally, go for PS3 and PC.

Developers aren't going to make games for the PS3 because it's the "most powerful". Look at the Xbox. The PS2, a less powerful machine, outsold it by leaps and bounds.

Third-party developers are attracted to systems that lead the market, and the PS3 isn't one. And yes, great games will come out for it, but if the PS3 remains $400, the only buyers are going to be hard-core gamers, not casual consumers. The Wii offers a mass-market price and innovative interaction; the PS3 and the Xbox 360 are incremental improvements on graphics.

[Cail]

The interface is what sells the Wii. I can't be bothered to figure out what 16 buttons on a PS2 controller do, nor can I operate them all and pay attention to a game.

Wii offers a simple, intuitive way of playing which allows the very young, the very old, and people like me who can't devote huge chunks of time sitting in front of a TV trying to figure out a game, the opportunity to play video games.

Wii is all about the interface, and until the other platforms adopt something similar, they're going to be playing catch-up.

[Nav]

Personally I don't see the Wii as a direct competitor for the 360 and PS3. What Nintendo have done with it (and with the DS to a similar extent), is to break into a whole new market of consumers who previously wouldn't have been interested in gaming. A lot of the Wii owners wouldn't have even considered buying a 360 or PS3, because 'conventional' gaming probably didn't appeal to them.

The only blip I see on Nintendo's horizon is how game development continues to pan out. If they can keep up a steady stream of bespoke Wii titles then great, but we're seeing a number of shoddy ports that aren't working very well because the Wii is based on improved Gamecube hardware. As with any Nintendo system though, if you stick to Nintendo's own games you can't go wrong.

I'm starting to have serious doubts about the PS3, the extra power of the system is only going to do any good if Sony elect to stick with the machine when Microsoft bring out their next console. They may not want to risk Microsoft stealing the march on them again and there's a chance that BluRay will be obselete by that time (more and more commentators believe that consumers will jump straight from standard def DVD to home downloading and never bother with high def DVD).

Their immediate problem though, is that they just don't have the games to tempt buyers up to their price point. Their three key games are Metal Gear Solid 4, the next Final Fantasy, GTA IV, (cross-platform) and Gran Turismo 5, which now has a strong rival in the shape of the Forza Motorsport series. I just don't know if that's going to be enough.

[Cagliostro]

The 360's library is FPS-heavy (I can only assume their logic is that FPS gamers buy more games, which is true as far as I'm concerned), but other genres are being fleshed out. There's Oblivion of course, Mass Effect is out now and is excellent, Fable 2 is coming soon and then Fallout 3 next year.

:jaw drops:

Fall...
out...
3?

As in the great series from the PC having a console threequel? How strange. Well, maybe I'll have to find a place to rent the system and that game for a week. Or hope they at least release it on the PC as well.

[Worm of Despite]

Fallout 3 is going to be made by Bethesda, so don't expect the hardcore role-playing of the first two games. I hear it's going to use first-person perspective, much like Oblivion.

[Cagliostro]

Blah...well, that's disappointing. Still, it looks damn good. I dug around yesterday after posting here and checked out a few things. We'll see. And happy to see it will be available on the PC as well.

[Nav]

It is being made by Bethesda, but from the interview's i've downloaded I don't think it's first person. It sounds like it isn't rigidly turn based either; when combat starts you create a chain of actions (run here, activate this armor thing, shoot that guy etc) and then it unpauses and runs through what you said and works out what happens based on your skills. Presumably you then go to another round. There is a teaser trailer out that looks quite cool.