(Fair Warning folks, I typed this at home, with plenty of time to play with it. It's probably the longest post I've ever made.
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Right. Read
The IllEarth War this weekend, specifically with an eye to this thread, and the strategic and tactical considerations of it. For the first time ever, I read a fiction book with a notepad at my side. (Damn you Cj.
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And in the end, there’s only one conclusion I can reach: Hile Troy was a genius.
Sure, he made a few fundamental mistakes. But only a very few. There’s very little that I would have done differently. I think that in consideration of this thread, we should be bound by the “realities” of the situation in which he found himself, and, as I’ve already said, not get sidetracked as it were by the “knowledge” that we have as external observers of the outcome.
In that sense, let’s first consider exactly what was going on, then what Troy actually did to meet the situation, and finally, where
I think his attempts could have been improved. (Actually, it’ll probably all be mixed in together.
)
So…Troy has been in the land for nearly 5 years. It doesn’t say how long it took him to convince everybody that he should be Warmark, and to prove it by tactically outmanoeuvring the existing leadership, but I’m going to guess that it wasn’t less than a full year, and possibly closer to two, given that he first had to believe that he had something to offer, and then be convinced (and supported by Elena) to even try for it.
So he gains control of the Warward, and the Lords know, and have known for 35 years, that they’re going to be facing a huge conflict with Foul. They don’t know when, or what form it’ll take, but as it gets closer to the end of the time allotted in Fouls original message to them, they know that it must be sometime soon.
They haven’t been particularly idle, especially not by their lights, the Warward is increased to record numbers, they have more Lords than they’ve had at one time for a long while. Essentially, they’re getting on a war footing.
Now recently, they’ve realised that Foul must be gathering his army. They’ve noticed an increase in activity around the Sarangrave, (somewhere that the Giants have always previously kept clear), reports reach them of Kresh, Ur-Viles and so forth entering the Shattered Hills, and they’re pretty sure that something big is in the offing. Their one problem now is lack of intelligence. Earlier Missions to the Giants have failed, so they don’t know anything about what’s happening out by the Sarangrave, their scouts etc. can’t get past the Shattered Hills, hell, even Mhoram couldn’t do it.
Then they “capture”
dukkha Waynhim in the summer of the year Covenant gets summoned. From the Waynhim, they learn that Foul is indeed massing his armies, that the Ravers are in command, and worse, that Foul has the IllEarth Stone to bring to bear against them.
So now they know that war is imminent. Lets take a look at what they’ve got to fight with:
9 Lords: Mhoram, Elena, Hyrim, Trevor, Loerya, Callindrill, Shetra, Verement and Amatin.
500 Bloodguard. Except, it’s not 500, in fact it’s probably generous to assume 480. Remember that the Bloodguard are only replaced when the bodies of the fallen return home. In the case of the First Mark who died beneath Mount Thunder, Mhorams entire bodyguard in the Shattered Hills, and who knows how many others, no replacements would be forthcoming. (And we know it’s happened before, because Bannor tells TC about it.) I think that in 2,000 years, it’s likely that a good few others have been lost.
50 Eoward: 21,050 Warriors and officers, plus Troy himself, Quaan, the second in command and First Haft Amorine, Troy’s No. 3. (If the Land is as lightly populated as we believe it to be, (And I sort of think 250,000 is still a high estimate), then that’s a considerable army, especially at that technology level. Hell, for most of the history of our world, armies of 5-10,000 were considered pretty big.
And the vast majority of that 21 odd thousand are completely inexperienced troops. Novices, fresh out of the academy and boot camp. Never had to cut off anyone’s head before. Never had anyone trying to cut off
their own heads before either.
Now historically, the Lords have always fought Foul’s armies at Landsdrop, south of Andelaine, to deny them access to the Plains of Ra. The main problem with that is that Landsdrop, the best, and most obvious line of defence, is hell of a far from Revelstone, where the armies are obviously quartered.
We know that it’s just under 300 leagues (900 miles, or 1,440km) to Doom’s Retreat, and 300 from Mithil Stonedown to Revelstone. Now roughly, (and I realise this is rough, the map in TIW is certainly not to scale, but I’m going to use it as if it was, ‘cause I don’t have anything better to go by) it’s just over 400 leagues (1,277 miles or 1,980km) to the area of Landsdrop that I assume applies.
(On that map, I’m guessing roughly in the area of the Colossus of the Fall, because it’s close to the Shattered Hills, it’s close to the Plains of Ra, following the LandRider River will bring you out close to the Mithil River, (which, although the map does not indicate, I assume flows through the Mithil Valley,) and finally because I can easily imagine the Raver wanting to gloat as he leads a mighty army past the Colossus whose interdict once barred he and his brothers from the Upper Land.)
Now Troy’s problem, apart from the distance, was that the part of Landsdrop where Fouls army ascends to the Upper Land was simply indefensible in any sort of long run. There are too many paths up to stop the enemy from reaching the Upper Land, and when they have done so in the past, the Lords have had to lead a retreat, drawing Fouls army after them through the Plains of Ra, until they can regroup further north, closer to Revelstone and in the Centre Plains. Essentially, they fight twice, unnecessarily.
Troy’s plan to prevent this is dependent on a single bit of knowledge: Where will Foul’s army attempt to gain the Upper Land? Will they march north of Mount Thunder along Landsdrop, and attack at Revelstone from the East? (A move made possible by the quiescence of the Giants.) Or will they do as they have done so often before, ascending Landsdrop south of Andelaine, then striking north, through the Centre Plains?
This knowledge is vital to any plan of defence, and the thing is, there is no way to know until Foul starts marching. To find out as soon as possible, Troy has Ramen scouts out. We aren’t told how many watches are out there, but we know that one gets through.
We can guess that Troy is pretty confident that the enemy will come from the south, as there is no mention of his plans should they attack from the east. If I had to guess, I’d say that if the enemy aimed north of Mt Thunder, the Warward would have marched straight east out of Revelstone to meet them at Landsdrop, considerably closer to Revelstone at that point, and probably with far fewer accessible routes up, hence the likelihood that they would choose the easier path near the Plains of Ra.
Troy plans to have sufficient warning of Fouls advance to allow him to march south, to the entry point of the South Plains, the Mithil Valley, and their hold Fouls army, with the Ramen presumably making guerrilla strikes against the rear and flanks, while the Warward denies them access to the plains.
Now that’s a pretty good tactic to begin with. A valley, especially one through the mountains, is a perfect defensive position, especially if the defenders have a chance to dig in as it were. And that’s not the end of it. If Foul breaks through, the plains are open to him. So Troy intends to slowly withdraw his whole army to Dooms Retreat an even more defensible bottleneck in the mountains, and one to which beaten armies have traditionally retreated to. Essentially, against an army that the most pessimistic estimates reckon would outnumber them five to one, Troy wants to be the one to pick the battleground. One that he’s already prepared at that.
But Troy can’t afford to rely on them taking that route. If Foul heads north first, while the Warward marches south, Revelstone is vulnerable. Before he commits his men to a defence, he has to
know where Foul is going.
Next, he makes the second part of his first mistake. He agitates for the summoning of TC, in the hopes that it will cause Foul to act before he is ready, while at the same time, it is felt that the Warward is as ready as they’re going to get. The first part of that mistake was to rely on the amount of time that it will take for him to get the message that Foul is marching in any given direction.
Knowing how long a Manethrall will take to cross the distance, the more than 400 leagues between the Shattered Hills and Revelstone, he assumes that the minimum time is all that it will take. (And here we get our first realisation that Troy, for all his
tactical knowledge, is not a
strategist.) He hasn’t made allowance for the tiniest error. It didn’t occur to him before hand that it might under any circumstances happen that the Manethrall could be delayed.
Instantly, we can think of a couple of alternatives. Here’s one for example: Signal towers within the Upper Land. The Manethrall has to run a day at most to the nearest tower, from which they not only send riders at speed, but also say, light a big signal fire, alerting towers closer to Revelstone, who send out their own riders and light fires. (Say a different coloured smoke to indicate which way they’re marching, north or south.)
The march, unfortunately, was vital to the success. Even if Troy’s news hadn’t been delayed, it would still have to have been done. They just would have been able to take it much easier. And there’s part of a second mistake. A part directly connected to the second part of the first one.
The second part of his first mistake, as I said, was agitating for the summoning. Actually, that wasn’t the mistake. The mistake was then ignoring the fact that it could be successful. He deliberately encourages the Lords to do something that could speed up the beginning of war, and then does nothing to take advantage of it.
And that’s another thing I would have done differently. In the understanding that the summonsing may cause Foul to start marching, I wouldn’t have kept my warriors hanging around Revelstone. I’d have marched them 100 leagues south east of Revelstone, practically to where the SoulsEase River flows out of Andelaine, and camped them there, conducting drills, and making sure they’re in good condition. That way, if they learn Foul is marching south, they’re almost a third of the way to the Mithil Valley already, and only have to turn due south and march the remainder. If he turns north on the other hand, they’re still closer to Landsdrop than they were at the Keep.
It’s now fall, three months at the most since they learned indisputably that Foul was gathering his army, and TC has arrived. Little do they know that Foul started marching practically when TC was summoned, but Manethrall Rue is making all speed toward them.
Next, they dispatch 2 Lords, and several Bloodguard, (at least a dozen) on the Mission to Coercri. Soon after, Rue arrives, bringing news that Fouls army has already been on the march for 20 days. Now Troy expected them to be marching for 15 days already before he got news, so that wasn’t too terrible, it just meant that killer march. If Foul got through the west end of the Mithil Valley unopposed, he’d be free to turn north into the Centre Plains, and it would be he, not Troy, who picked their battlegrounds. With his superior forces, this would be bad news indeed.
Troy has just nine days before Foul is through the valley. Where at first, he had planned to meet them at the end with his full force; instead he knows that they will be unable to reach in time. Instantly, Troy dispatches a strike force of his most mobile and capable troops, 200 Bloodguard and one Lord on Ranyhyn, who can reach the choke point in seven days. This will give them two days to prepare for Foul and await re-enforcements.
As fast as possible, he sends the entirety of his cavalry force to follow them, using the rafts to cut a few days off their journey. He sends off 5,040 mounted troops and Hiltmark Quaan on the rafts, which will take ten days, with instructions to join the Bloodguard and hold Foul at the western end of the Mithil Valley for eight days.
(Now here is something that I don’t quite get. Maybe I’m missing something obvious? Troy says he needs 28 days to march to the retreat. He dispatches the Bloodguard, who’ll get there in seven days. Two days later, Fouls forces arrive. (That’s nine days) one day later, the first of the mounted Eoward arrive. (Ten days.) Quaan holds for eight days, making 18 days, then withdraws to Dooms Retreat. Is it a ten day running fight from the Mithil Valley to Dooms Retreat? Maybe it is. Seems a bit long to me, but anyway…)
Right. Troy has 16,000 warriors left, somewhat less than 300 Bloodguard, and an undisclosed number of HireBrands and Gravelinggasses. Two hundred Bloodguard remain in the keep, 20 odd go with TC, Mhoram and Co. and the remainder, possibly a bit less than 30, are out warning everybody that Corruption marches. Two Lords are assigned to the defence of Revelstone, and later one to Revelwood, leaving four, including Mhoram and Elena, with the Warward. Most of the Hirebrands and Gravelinggasses remain at Revelstone, but some travel with the army.
Then starts the much-derided march. 10 leagues (30 miles or 48km) per day, and nothing to look forward to at the end but a battle against superior numbers. And here’s something else I would have done differently. He instructs the “last few hundred” horses be used for cartage. I would have either mounted the least incompetent horsemen and sent them with the cavalry, to arrive last to be certain, but potentially an important factor, at least in gaining the extra time, or I would have sent them ahead to Dooms Retreat, riding the horses to death if need be, to start preparing some of the defences before the rest arrived, perhaps even start a defence if Quaan didn’t gain enough time.
The next possibility, I wasn’t sure of. Since he became Warmark, and began to learn about the battles etc that led him to choose the Retreat as his stand, Dooms Retreat clearly figured largely in his strategy, hence my saying earlier that there was a greater chance of the enemy coming south. It’s possible that he could have begun fortifying the place long before, making it even more suitable for the type of battle he planned to fight. Of course, against that is the possibility of being noticed, making it far more unlikely that Foul would be drawn there.
Now while the army marches, Troy learns a terrible truth. Stopping atop Kevin’s Watch, he sees that Fouls army isn’t merely three or five times the size of his army, it’s
20 times bigger. Against Troy’s force of 21,000 warriors, the Raver commands 420,000 soldiers.
And its not 400,000 inexperienced Stonedowners and Woodhelvinin, with a sprinkling of tested, efficient warriors thrown in, and here, (if you’ve still bothered to keep reading
) is part of my problem with the whole equivalency question. How many warriors is an Ur-Vile equivalent to? What about a Cavewight, or one of the giant wolves?
There were as many Ur-Viles as Troy had soldiers. And as many Cavewights as well. And half as many Kresh. And that was the vanguard.
And there is another possible mistake Troy made. Those Ramen scouts should have been trained in assessing the numbers of the enemy. Even after he knew they marched, Troy had no idea how hugely he was outnumbered.
Even if they’d managed to push five times as many soldiers through the Loresraat, they’d
still be outnumbered more than four to one.
And again, a large part of the force ranged against them was lore-wise, or powerful in some other “eldritch” way.
And that’s pretty much most of it. As far as the book goes, Quaan gains them seven days, manages to draw the army to Dooms Retreat where they fight a great action, topping a lot of the vanguard, then, leaving one of the Lords, Callindril, to seal the retreat, they withdraw to the ruins of Doriendor Corishev, and leaving behind another rearguard to delay the Raver further, they run for Garrotting Deep, where Troy begs the Forestal to admit his men, and spare them in exchange for the Raver and his army.
What else could he have done? Under the circumstances, not much I think. Just over 4,000 men survived. Over one hundred of the Bloodguard died, to be unreturned. (Not that it mattered by then.)
Cavalry skirmishes would be defeated by the mounted Ur-Viles, (20 wedges mounted on the Kresh), I don’t think they worried too much about supply lines, the army probably fed on whatever crossed their path, each other if possible, and nothing most of the time. We spoke earlier about things like caltrops. While great in the short run, maybe to slow down the Kresh or whatever, they’d make no difference in even the medium-term. The Raver could literally carpet the ground with the bodies of his army, and march the rest straight over them. Mail? Polearms? Missile weapons? Mail won’t protect you from a Cavewight with a club, it’ll just mean your corpse is encased in tinfoil after he’s beaten you to a pulp,
inside your armour. Probably be no problem for him to rip the polearm out of your nicely formed porcupine too. And how many arrows can one archer carry?
If he’d known earlier that they were so numerous, if he’d learned of their disposition earlier, and had plenty of time to reach his objective, what could he have done? Would he have been so successful? I’m not sure. I think he only conceived his plan in the extremity of shock. Would he still have thought to lead them to the forestal? Perhaps. Perhaps a few thousand would have been saved by heading straight to the Ruins and from there to the Forest? But perhaps not. Would he have believed victory possible if he’d known those numbers, and thus still made the attempt? Can’t tell, but I doubt it.
There is only one strategy that I can think of for facing such overwhelming odds, and that’s abandoning Revelstone, and sending every Eoward, in fact, every Eoman, out as independents, fighting a guerrilla war, trying to sap at the strength, trying to outwait the enemy.
And it’s not like the enemy has to worry about public pressure, to consider the political implications of keeping the army in the field, or any of the mundane affairs that affect modern warfare. Foul doesn’t care if every single one of his forces dies. He can keep that army in the field for as long as they can stand upright.
He can (and would) turn them lose to ravage the land, killing any Eoward who blundered into them. Stonedowns and Woodhelvins would be razed to the ground, along with every bit of forest they encountered. Nope. Bar a couple of tiny mistakes which wouldn’t make a difference in the long run, and in fact, which may have even contributed to the eventual victory, Hile Troy was a genius.
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