Fist and Faith wrote:Orlion wrote:SoulBiter wrote:
You said that much better than I would have, but yeah, you are absolutely correct. Since are are talking unknown variables, its all just wild speculation.
What's really funny with Hoyle is, believing in the steady state Universe (which exists eternally without beginning or end) probability to explain how "impossible" life is is pretty meaningless. When there is an infinite amount of time in a Universe and the Universal resources are replenishing themselves at the rate they are being used, even the most unlikely scenario will occur... and it will occur an infinite amount of times!
At that point, it's not a question of will it happen and how often but if it is even possible.
Hoyle, like many incredibly gifted smart people, was a mixture of profound insight and utter foolishness. After all, Newton was very much involved in alchemy.
Not sure you meant that sentence the way it came out.
Anyway, no, there is no "will occur". An infinite number of monkeys typing on an infinite number of typewriters ("Is that what you had in the olden days, daddy?") forever will not definitely type Shakespeare's plays. There is the possibility that none of them will ever type the letter E. Or maybe they'll all type nothing
but the letter E. Or anything else we can come up with. Infinite opportunity does not mean every possibility
will come about.
The monkeys are not a possibility really, because we've never observed them typing a Shakespeare play. We have observed that life can exist.
So we know (reasonably anyway) that boundary conditions in the universe will not really allow a printing press to explode and allow all the letters to fall in such a way as to reproduce the Oxford dictionary. That's silly poppycock designed to make something stupid will ignoring the foundations and applications of probability.
But if we know that for everyone 100,000 cats born 1 ends up with rare markings, we can reasonably assume that, all things being equal, if we have an infinite number of cats breeding, the rare marked ones will occur... and they will occur an infinite number of times though at a 1/100,000 ratio.
That was part of my point with the Steady State Universe idea, which would hold that there would be a sort of "all things being equal" since in a SSU, the universe is not allowed to follow the Entropy path to its logical conclusion: if one thing becomes more chaotic, another thing will become more organized.
That does not happen, though. All things are not equal. Cats will mutate at an increasing rate the more they breed which will affect things and cause the rare markings to become, possibly, more common or even non-existent.